I would just go over and ask them if they saw your recycling bin. Tell them it has your numbers painted on the side and to be on the look out for it. Pretend like you don't think they took it. Hopefully that will turn the conscience on where your bin will just magically show up in a few days. If it doesn't show up in the next few days at least they won't be able to use your recycling bin because you already mentioned it's yours and it has the numbers on it, I don't think anyone would be brazen enough to use something they stole in front of someone after they asked about the item being missing.
That's the way I'd do it, but I'm a non-confrontational type of guy.