We all know that once this happens it will ring a loud cry from the WTS to how it is "growing". When do you think this will happen?
When do you think JWs will reach the 7,000,000 mark?
by R.F. 28 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
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jelcat8224
ugh! I don't know but, with so many of us still 'in' but not really, their numbers are so inflated!! I'm sure they know the numbers are inaccurate but they still love to throw them out there to excite the average JW.
honestly, I hope it never happens. I would love to see enough of us leave officially every year to prevent that number from ever being reached.
jelcat
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nvrgnbk
Nvr?
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stillajwexelder
At current growth rates 2010
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WTWizard
They already have, if you count all the irregulars and "soft" inactives (that is, those who have drifted away and still haven't turned apostate or started doing things for which they could get disfellowshipped for). They had a peak of 6,741,444 last year. And there are likely another 200,000 irregulars that didn't come out during the peak month, plus a like number of soft inactives that they could reactivate. All they would have to do is one huge push to get everyone that qualifies out in the same month, and BAM! You have that dreaded 7 million!
The catch is that they would have to drag everyone that qualifies out for that month. For instance, if they have that peak in April and the irregulars were out in March and May, they would not count in April toward that peak. Or, if they became inactive as of April, but they are still not hardened against coming back, they would not be counted on that number. It's these "hidden" members that could create a spike in the numbers to more than 7 million.
The other major wild card is Nigeria, which is the major reason why I highlight that country so much. They have around 280,000 members and more than 450,000
Watchtower bookBible studies as of the 2006 report. And that is a country where a Bible study is more likely to progress--if there is going to be 450,000 studies, I would rather it be in the States or Europe where education and the Internet are widespread than in Nigeria or parts of South America, other parts of Africa, or Asia where Internet is a novelty at best. If my math is right and we don't lose enough to balance this, all they need is about 260,000 of those studies to progress to the point of becoming publishers to crest that dreaded number.When do I think they will get all 7 million out in one month? I'm afraid that they probably already have. Why? With all the tract work and the hounding to get EVERYONE out for those months, they have gotten everyone that can go out to go out. The irregulars are the ones that are highest risk, since they had that Crapmorial tract during March and the drive to pioneer during that month. They planned that even as they were saying that Armageddon was just ahead. I wonder if they also had 7 million people out during the months where they had the Tract last fall about false religion.
If they failed to crest 7 million (and I hope to Satan that they did fail), the next chance will be next fall. And by then, they have more chances of being embarrassed by the pedophile suits that are coming up, which will lower the influx and cause more disassociations. Then there is the Kool-Aid edition of the Craptower set to debut in 2008, which hopefully will turn the members and incoming recruits off and stop them from making any headway. I hope they actually start losing members on that, so that they will be looking up at 6 million, then 5, by the end of 2008. And by the time they have to play with the 2014 scam, enough people will have seen the 1975 scam and the pedophile problem, along with the stagnation and misery in that "new" order, so that they will go all the way down to zero (which is the number I want to see on the report).
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R.F.
2014??? Is their something circulating out there that I don't know about??
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Madame Quixote
Probably not before earth population reaches the 7 billion mark, so who cares?
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WTWizard
2014? Yup, that is the 100th anniversary of the 1914 fiasco and they are going to find some way to play it up. After that, look out for 2034 as the 120-year period of preaching (never mind that that clock actually started ticking in 1874, and Armageddon did not show up in 1994). Hopefully, long before 2034, the Tower will come down for embarrassment about the scandals and the people realizing that the new order isn't going to be all that pleasant to live in after all.
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steve2
Let's cut the wild guesses and try something more reliable:
One way to estimate this is to get the publisher-numbers for April - which, from memory, were printed in the Kingdom Ministry in the following months, say June or July. So, if the publisher numbers for the USA show an increase in April 2007 over the peak number for that country last year, we could expect the total number of publishers worldwide this year to be approaching 7,000,000. Believe me, if there was an increase the Watchtower would have crowed about it by now.
So, has anyone heard what the peak number of publishers in the USA was for April 2007? Or in any other country - and whether that was an increase over last year's peak numbers?
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TheOldHippie
My country - April towards April 3 % up. April towards year 4 % up. Year so far - 2 % up.