Media Sensationalizes Nukes vs Terrorists

by Amazing 20 Replies latest jw friends

  • Amazing
    Amazing

    Listening to CNN and other news outlets, I find that the media pundits are making a big deal out of nuke plants vs terrorists. In one case on CNN they are either illinformed or dishonest.

    The claim was made this morning that nuke plant containments have never been tested for an airplane crashing into them. This is false.

    I posted on this topic two or three weeks ago. The test conducted was taken using a typical containment wall construction only 1/4 the thickness of actual containments. A jet fighter was flown into the wall at 500+ mph, fully fuel loaded. The plane disintegrated into little pieces, with only one engine remaining idenitifable. The wall only had "surface" scratches.

    But what about a large Boeing 767? To my knowledge a "large" jumbo jet has not been used in any test of this kind. However, the design of typical containment walls are four times thicker than that used, and would be difficult for even a jumbo jet to penetrate. However, my earlier post addressed the possibility of breeching the containment and the safety systems that would mitigate any serious results to the health or safety of the public.

    CNN went on to claim more: They said that a terrorist could ttack the switching yard outside the plant, and cause control disrupptions and create a "melt-down" of the reactor. This is either a total idiot making the report, or a bold-faced liar.

    The switching yard only distributes power from the plant. If it were attacked, the plant would safely shutdown and not have any meltdown. But what about the needed power to operate the plant to a safe shutdown? The plant uses its own power generated and this would not be affected by anything that happens in the switching yard. And even if the plant lost its own internal power, there are at least two, and sometimes three or four back up large diesal-generators that would immediately come on line and power the plant to a safe-shutdown condition.

    What about guarding them with National Guard? Great, if the government wants to send in extra military support, the more the merrier. However, since the days of the Iran-Hostage situation in 1979-1980 ALL USA nuclear plant have highly trained and equipped para-military forces that watch the plants like hawks, and carry great big huge guns to deal with bad guys.

    What if terrorists got in anyway? Assuming that a band of 10, 20, 30 or more terrorists made it through the military protections in place, then there is the question of how to penetrate the control room. Without that, the terrorists cannot do much. During the battle to get in the plant operators would do two things: 1) safely shut the plant down, and lock it out from restarting, 2) would seal themselves off in the control room.

    And if for some reason terrorists made it into the control room, there are other provisions "already" in place to circumvent that possibility. I am not at liberty to dilvulge that, as it is classified.

    Do not believe everything the sensational-hungry media says:Nevertheless, the media is blowing many things out of proportion. Even Tom Brokaw whose secretary was affected by Anthrax was honest enough to admit that the media was blowing this issue out too much and creating more fear than should exist, and he alluded to the fact that senationalism was affecting other aspects of the threat.

    Are there things I do fear? Yes, but first I would like to comment more on the things I don't worry about.

    1. Water supply is safe by virtue that it is guarded, and even if terrorists managed to toss some bad stuff into it, both the dilution factor and monitoring methods would preclude serious danger.

    2. Bio-terror. This is a threat, but seems to be confined to media types and other public figures so that a little bit can be used to get a lot of attention. Our nation has the treatment for Anthrax, Smallpox, and others threats. We can gear up to produce enough shots to innoculate everyone. It will take time, but we have time.

    3. Nuclear bombs. Terrorists are, according to the president, trying to acquire them. I believe him from what I know about movement of some fuels in the nuclear industry. And Iraq is long known to be trying to develop such weapons. Here is something to consider:

    a. If he develops big bombs before the US can invade that nation, then he still has the problem of delivery. It takes a sophicated rocket with very long range capability to deliever a large nuclear payload. And Iraq is not there yet.

    b. Small bombs are more of a concern as they are more easily transported. But in this case, detection is fairly easy, and even if a terrorist gets through to the USA, there are several other logistical issues that must be overcome before delivery and detonation. I will not address these logistical issues. But, a small nuke will not be the end of the world. It would be ugly, and cause serious problems in a large major city, but we would survive just as Japan did after the atomic bombs were dropped on them at the end of WWII.

    4. What about "non-nuclaer" Bombs in public places, like shopping malls, bridges, ball parks, etc.? Yes, if they get through to these places, terrorists could do some frightening damage and cause much senationalism. But, I believe that they would have done so by now, were they planning any such manuevers. It seems that their only plan was to crash some planes into key targets, and send out Anthrax to key public people. Certainly, the western alliance reaction to this by bombing Afghanistan would have movitated them to carry out other ugly acts by now. They may still, but I believe that it will be limited if at all.

    What then do I fear? Overreaction! I fear that too much loss of civil liberties for an extended period of time will cause many citizens to continue their sacrifice such that we will forget our sense of purpose - freedom. I fear that it will eventually lead to ethnic discrimination in an effort to get potential terrorists out of the USA. And, if we are not careful enough to be thorough and fast with military and other efforts, we will eventually end up like Israel is today - seen as a monolithic iron hand beating on helpless people. The next generation will forget why we started fighting, and will see our efforts as warmongering.

    We have seen how the persecuted Jews who have been forced to fight for survival have now lost the image war, and are seen as the bad guys by many people outside the Arab world. This is similar to the way the USA and other western nations fought communism - after several decades we were seen as oppressive with our CIA, and not seen as the force that kept communism in check. This finally changed with the demise of the Soviet Union, but had that not happened, we would still be on the worng end of the image game.

    What are we really facing?: We are at a serious turning point in history. The radical extremist who are using Islam as an excuse are still trying to get even for losing to the West by the 16th century - in fact the day of the last significant battle in the 16th century was on 9-11. They never forget. What they are attempting to do is not much different than when Hitler tried to reestablish the "Holy Roman Empire" which was a long term goal for a thousand years prior to his birth. Today the terrorists are trying once again to reestablish the control they once had and expand it to new frontiers.

    This war is more than about some few mean bad guys, it is about which civilization will survive. In Islam today there are about 1.2 Billion people. Christianity is about the same size. In the Christian world, the radical extremists are few by comparison, and most Christian cults are not out to commit terror. But in Islam, the extremists number about 200 million, and are out for blood. And if you think this war is not about survival of western civilization, then you are gravely mistaken. One only has to look at the rise and fall of other advanced civilizations in the past to see that this can and does happen - and to ignore what we are facing is to ignore and repeat history yet once again.

    PS: I am not trying to be sensationalistic with this concern. While I do believe that we have a major war, it is a war on many fronts, not the least of which is to win the battle of what civilation is the best for humanity. If we are careful and address all fronts with some wisdom and good leadership, we can and will win out. But, the time required to change the hearts of extremists of the next generation rising up is the one factor that really concerns me, for I wonder if we have the ability to accomplish such a monolithic task while retaining our sense of civil liberty and culture of individuality and personal freedom. Time will tell. - Amazing

  • celebrate
    celebrate

    THANK YOU!! I am so sick and tired of all of this media hype. I agree with you, I think the whole idea was to fly the planes into the WTC. I do not think our reaction or the world's reaction was planned for! Bin ladin made the statement that the U.S did not have the courage to attack him, and I think he really believed that.

    Anyway, thank you again for a voice of sanity!

    celebrate

  • ashitaka
    ashitaka

    Amazing, thanks for some unsensational information...I feel better. The screwy media loves to exaggerate to make everyone piss themselves and watch their program.

    Bloody ratings.

  • Satanus
    Satanus

    So do your part to save civilization. Kill a muslim today.

  • Yerusalyim
    Yerusalyim

    I agree with most of what you say, the news media is hyping it up a bit much. However, several tests were conducted in the 90's in which Special Forces Team were able to infiltrate and were in side long enough to set up explosives that would have caused some major radioactive fall out. This was actually done at several locations. If they are trained as well as these guys are, we could have a problem. Then again, security has been increased since then too.

    YERUSALYIM
    "Vanity! It's my favorite sin!"
    [Al Pacino as Satan, in "DEVIL'S ADVOCATE"]

  • Amazing
    Amazing

    Hi Yerusalem: What test are you referring to? Could you cite some references?

    The nuclear industry has been testing itself since 1980. And yes, from time to time, some testers were able to get a gun into the plant area, or into certain sensitive location. But, even if a terrorist got in and set off a bomb, the ability to harm the containment is extremely limited. There is no way for a terrorist to get into containment, so the bomb would have to be outside, and thus very large to cause a breech. Even then, the plant safety systems would preclude any serious harm as the reactor would scram and shut down safely.

    So, I am not sure of any test you speak of where any serious threat could be carried out. The trouble with such "tests" is that they do not simulate real life conditions. They have to be limited because by law plant operators have to have real threats to take certain actions. And such "tests" cannot fully simulate real life. Because this is classified, I will try to illustrate with car crash tests.

    Auto makers used crash dummies in controlled tests to demonstrate how a car reacts to a crash with air bag deployment, etc. They cannot use live humans and simulate crashes that are totally realistic. So, the usefulness of such tests are limited, and as a result, the sensationalism in the media often frightens people when certain defects are identified. These "defects" are often made to seem more of a concern than they are.

    Were real terrorists to penetrate a nuclear plant outer boundary, the operators would know about it immediately, and then, and only then, would they take certain preemptive actions to preclude a takeover of the plant.

    Assuming I am mistaken: Even if terrorists took over a plant, and caused a meltdown of the reactor core -- an almost impossible task since the days of Three Mile Island -- it would be contained inside the plant. And if they blew up the plant with some large bomb, they would have to use a really Big Bomb that would expose the reactor core to the open and spread contamination outside. This would still be generally confined to a limited area.

    The effectiveness for attention deficient terrorists is too great to make such an attempt. They would be far better served doing other things - like the Anthrax attack - where they get a lot of attention for relatively little effort - and greater assurance of success in their goals. - Amazing

  • ISP
    ISP

    I think if the arab dudes wanted to get awkward they simply have to refuse to supply oil to the west. There was close on a catastrophe here last year when there was a petrol strike. Everyone was effected. Within a week..there was little food in the shops...Drs/nurses could not get to hospitals...schools were closed as teachers could get there. If it lasted much longer there would have been real hardship.

    ISP

  • Amazing
    Amazing

    Hi ISP: You raise an excellent issue regarding oil. I will make a separate post on this because I think this topic deserves some in-depth treatment. Thanks again. - Amazing

  • Mindchild
    Mindchild

    Interesting post Amazing. I see you have given this some careful thought and are trying to be reasonable however while I agree with a lot of what you said, I have a different viewpoint on some things.

    First, you are right about the media’s love of sensationalism. They have actually played right into the hands of the terrorists with both the air travel issues and the bio-terrorism. Still, sensationalist or not, they occasionally provide useful information as in times of war the governments only provide disinformation. Thus, you have to really filter through a lot of stories to find useful information.

    Having some interest in the subject of technological terrorism, I tend to think that at this point we don’t know if all our nuclear plants can withstand a direct hit from a large airliner. I watched that test on TV a week or so ago (I think it was 60 Minutes) about the jet fighter crash test, and I don’t think it is impossible that a large airliner could cause catastrophic damage. Some experts agree with me.

    Regardless, I don’t think that we really have to worry about this happening because the element of surprise has been taken away from terrorists for hijacking planes. Yes, there are occasional security breaches but there is too much attention right now on airport security for the terrorists to make any risk free moves in that direction. Perhaps in time, when the attention to security again wanes, it might be worth it for them to try.

    However, the real vulnerability from terrorism is still here but it will most likely come from different angles than you presented. Also, the ability to carry out these new types of attacks will likely be dependent upon both getting safe transport into the USA and being able to smuggle dangerous weaponry into the country.

    For example, Stinger surface to air missiles are already known to be in the hands of several “rouge” nations including Afghanistan. If they managed to get a dozen or so into this country, our airliners are sitting ducks. There goes the airline industry down the tubes when that happens and the only real protection then will be to have a large security zone around airports (impossible for most city airports) and air travel will suffer incredibly. Note, that the planes can of course be flying an still be vulnerable to SAMS, note what happened over in the Ukraine a few weeks ago when an accidental launch of a SAM brought down a distant airliner.

    I fully expect them to try to bring these weapons into the USA, perhaps they are already here and are waiting for the right time to maximize their psychological impact.

    The second line of attack I expect to see is from a new type of weapon called NN-EMP. This is an explosive powered electronic device a small as a briefcase that can destroy anything with electronics in it for a city block. These weapons already exist and are very easy to make and incredibly cheap. Typically, these won’t kill people unless they have vital electronics inside their body (like a pacemaker) but they can do enormous damage to computers, by wiping out memory and actually destroying the computers as well. Potential targets include Wall Street, and other financial centers, also nuclear power plants, none of which are shielded and jet planes that are either taking off or landing at airports. They have a short range and unless mounted on a missile, cannot hit high altitude targets.

    Further attacks that are even more deadly and well within the capabilities of terrorists include creating enormous destruction by blowing up natural gas tankers at ports in cities possibly kill thousands of people, and attacking oil refineries in the USA. The later will not really have that much of a death toll, but it would send gasoline prices soaring.

    The entire electrical grid of the USA is extremely vulnerable to long term disruption by selecting the right targets with an ordinary high powered rifle, and potentially could knock out large sections of electrical power for months in some parts of the country. Of course the Alaska pipeline was shown to be very vulnerable a few weeks ago when a drunk shot it with a rifle, causing nearly a 250,000-gallon oil spill. I could keep going on but I think you get the picture. We are at war, and even though this enemy looks primitive and rides horses they are not stupid, as they already demonstrated on September 11th, crazy yes, stupid no.

    I think if American’s think this war is going to go away in a few months and everything is going to be just fine and dandy, that is simply magical thinking. You are right though about panic and over reacting by the public. It doesn’t help a bit and worsens a bad situation already.

    Finally, a thought about us winning the war: We might be able to pretend we won this war but this is also magical thinking. Terrorism will not stop now it will only escalate. The only way to guarantee that it would never start again is by killing every one of those radical extremists who now hate the USA with a passion and are willing to die for their beliefs. Some military experts are doubting that we will even be able to knock of Ben Ladin, regardless, if we did get him, there are many more willing to take his place. I think that the simplistic solution that we are using is going to backfire and only create more enemies for us. Still, that is the course we have taken and we are going to find out before long if it was the right thing to do or not.

    Skipper

  • Seven
    Seven

    Hi Amazing! Great post as usual. Last weekend CNN ran a segment on the probability of terrorists using armor-piercing weapons on casks used to transport spent fuel to a central storage facility releasing the radioactive particles in densely populated areas. The media is doing an outstanding job of scaring the shite out of everyone. If you have the time would you care to comment on a bit of info I read on the CNIE website.

    Sabotage Risks. The potential for sabotage of nuclear waste transportation casks has also been cited as an argument against the large-scale transfer of spent fuel to a central storage facility. Opponents point out that a wide variety of armor-piercing weapons could penetrate the heavy steel transportation casks, pulverize some of the nuclear waste inside, and allow highly radioactive waste particles to escape into the environment.
    Studies of potential sabotage damage to nuclear waste transportation casks were conducted during the 1980s by Sandia National Laboratories and Battelle Columbus Laboratories. (See Endnote 49.) In those studies, armor-penetrating explosive devices were fired directly at a variety of full- and partial-scale casks containing real and simulated spent nuclear fuel. The explosions breached the test casks and damaged some of the nuclear material inside, but far less radioactivity escaped than had previously been estimated. (See Endnote 50.)
    Battelle and Sandia researchers selected an M-3 conical shaped charge as the most hazardous weapon that saboteurs would be likely to deploy against nuclear waste transportation casks. Such a shaped charge consists of high explosives surrounding a conical cavity lined with metal, such as copper or iron. Upon detonation, the high explosive collapses the metal-lined cavity and ejects the metal in an extremely high-velocity jet with great penetrating power.
    The M-3 is a relatively low-precision shaped charge designed primarily for penetrating concrete structures, and is one of the largest shaped charges in the U.S. inventory. It will penetrate 20 inches of armor steel and 30 inches of mild steel, and makes an entrance hole averaging nearly 4 inches in diameter. (See Endnote 51.) It carries a greater mass of high explosives than anti-tank systems cited by Jane's Infantry Weapons, (See Endnote 52.) and makes a wider hole than high-precision shaped charges. Although there may be weapons and other explosive devices that could make a larger hole in a transportation cask, the M-3 is considered by Battelle and Sandia researchers to be a valid indicator of the potential threat.
    In the Battelle and Sandia experiments, the metal jet produced by each shaped charge produced an entrance hole and, usually, an exit hole in the casks. (A full-scale cask test at Sandia produced an entrance hole about 6 inches in diameter and no exit penetration.) The real or simulated spent fuel in the path of the metal jet was pulverized, but cask contents that were not directly hit by the jet suffered little or no damage. Unlike tanks and other typical targets of armor-piercing weapons, nuclear waste casks contain no explosive or combustible materials that could be touched off by the shaped-charge jets, so little secondary damage occurred in the tests.
    The Sandia researchers calculated from the experimental data that an attack on a truck cask carrying three spent fuel assemblies would release a maximum of 34 grams of respirable irradiated fuel. If the attack took place in a densely populated urban area, such a release could cause as many as 14 latent cancer fatalities, the report concluded. (See Endnote 53.) Larger truck or rail casks, holding substantially more spent fuel, might release greater quantities of radioactive material, depending on the penetration and diameter of the shaped-charge jet.
    A 1997 report for the State of Nevada criticized the conclusions of the Battelle and Sandia studies. (See Endnote 54.) The Nevada report contended that the earlier studies had understated the potential hazard of up to 2,000 curies of non-respirable radioactive material that could be released from a spent fuel cask by a shaped- charge attack. Moreover, the Nevada report contended that the shaped-charge attacks simulated by Battelle and Sandia did not represent a "credible worst-case scenario," such as the capture of a cask and the placement of multiple charges around it.
    NRC physical protection regulations for spent fuel transportation (10 CFR 73.37), which DOE follows, are designed to reduce the risk of sabotage. Under the rules, each shipment of spent fuel by NRC licensees requires the prior notification of NRC, regular monitoring by a licensee-operated communications center, and constant surveillance by trained escorts. Licensees must also arrange for emergency response by local law enforcement agencies along planned transportation routes and meet other general requirements. Specific physical protection requirements for highway, railroad, and sea shipments are also mandated by the NRC regulations.
    Even without accidents or sabotage, small amounts of radiation are emitted by spent fuel transportation casks. During a normal shipment, low exposure levels would be received by the transportation crew, passengers on other vehicles (during a highway shipment), and residents near the transportation route. The dose to each exposed individual would normally be extremely low, but the total population dose resulting from all planned spent fuel shipments could be an issue in the debate.

    Thanks,
    Seven
    . http://www.cnie.org/nle/waste-20b.html#Sabotage%20Risks

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