by RULES & REGULATIONS 15 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
Every year nearly 40,000 members are disfellowshipped mostly due to ''conduct unbecoming a Christain.'' In a 10 year period,that would be close to 400,0000 members.
Does anyone know if the WTS know the numbers who disassociate themselves? Do they know the number of ''faders''?
In your opinoin,how many members does the WTS really lose in one year period?
I don't have any statistics for ya, but it sounds to me like they lose more than they bring in.
If you lose most of the kids when they turn 18, you have members who are still there but fading, it looks kinda bleak. I think their hey-dey is over.
Hey, how did you find out they lose 40k pr year?
cognac, the 40,000 number is thrown around a lot by Circuit and District overseers during their visits and assemblies.
To my knowledge the 40,000 number includes both and they never give a breakdown. They usually just say something general like "the vast majority was because of immorality". The numbers of disassociated ones is most likely at least in the thousands and I don't think they want the general membership to know that many make the decision to leave.
I believe that most JWs think that practically nobody disassociates. They most likely think everybody that leaves is disfellowshipped. It could be a real moral breaker to know that there are thousands leaving each year by choice.
Here is the way I see it.
Growth rate over the last six years has been an average of 2.2% per year.
Assuming that 1.5% of the growth is from families getting children to begin their publishing careers, that leaves a pathetic 0.7% growth from the field. Pretty bad compared to the general worldwide poplulation growth of approximately 1.2% per year. In fact it is EARTH SHATTERINGLY BAD. If things are supposed to be speeding up in the last days, we are going to have to see some drastic improvements in a hurry!
As far as disassociating numbers are concerned, I think they include the DAs with the DFs since there is really no difference now.
The fading factor is interesting. Because if you include an assumed 1% fade factor per annum, or 1 out of every 100 hundred witnesses embarking on a fade every year (to the extent that they become inactive), that means that the faders need to be replaced with new suckers, or new publishers to offset that. If the fade factor estimate is accurate then that means that the field service efforts would have needed to produce approximately 174,608 new pubs last year. Here is a breakdown of the new publlishers added to the rank and file last year (rounded to the nearest thousand)
Total new publishers: 301,000
Estimated New pubs from JW families: 195,000
Faders who have become inactive: - 69,000
New pubs from field: 175,000
What does all this mean?
Answer: Who cares!
Just get out while you can!
The Oracle
Watchtower-1994-April-1st-p.16 "Yet, each year about 40,000 individuals are disfellowshipped from Jehovah's organization."
The number disfellowshipped has been consistently around 1% per year for decades, so it is about 60,000 a year now. I think this number includes disassociated ones, as they are treated the same and announced from the platform with the same announcement.
There are some statistics extrapolated as to the number leaving every year at the embedded page. Over the last five years (2002-2007) the difference between growth and baptisms is 800,000, meaning 800,000 have stopped publishing in that short a time. Even if 1% are due to death, that is still half a million in just five years that have moved on and not come back.
thanks for this...i'm working on a couple of projects where the powers that be don't know how to market them....this will help.
and, nothing like "knocking", that was pathetic with a built in audience, i mean genius, with a built in audience....but someone sold their soul to the jws for that thing.
I hope that my posts will have something to do with making that 40,001 people disfellowshipped. And I hope it causes people to think twice before joining.
That little jump in 2007 ought to be an embarrassment badge for the Filthful and Disgraceful Slavebugger. Easy campaign crapts, hounding everyone that is inactive to go out and place those NR37s and Crapmorial invitations, and clamping down on fading is responsible for this runup. What I hope for is that all the new rules will make things more obvious that people really need to leave that group, quickly--before they make leaving impossible and force everyone into stagnation traps that will make the 1990s look like fun and games.
Atlantis - seeing that Watchtower scan gave me the creeps - haven't laid eyes on one for 3 years,.
