Not sure of the accuracy: http://www.witnessesonline.com/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/witnessesonline/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=5&t=000129
some 2001 year figures reported on wol
by expatbrit 29 Replies latest jw friends
-
-
anewperson
The real growth was close to 0% and negative because they have had to switch from averaging the publishers for all months to using only peak months of publishers in order to make the statistics seem to be still showing any kind of growth. I notice they said nothing about the United States. Any true growth is now limited to Africa and South America. Theocratic Warfare paper lies tactic.
-
Skimmer
The numbers look like they might be correct.
The WOL poster interestingly enough left out reporting any of the disService Year 2000 figures that were higher than the corresponding 2001 figures.
Baptisms: 2000: 288,907 (left out of WOL report)
Baptisms: 2001: 263,431 (decline of 25,476 or 8.81 percent)Also of note: the average congregation size, already small, is getting smaller.
Congregation size: 2000: 65.97182
Congregation size: 2001: 65.67261 -
Skimmer
The 8.81 percent decline in baptisms is on track with my prediction of a peak in the WTBTS membership occurring in 2006. If the trends in the DA/DF, death, and baptisms remains the same, then we will see ever decreasing total annual growth rates for the years up to 2006.
My earlier prediction of an all-time peak of WTBTS member count in the 7,000,000 to 7,500,000 range now looks a bit high. It may be that they will top out at around 6,800,000.
-
Skimmer
One more thing: the baptism count was the worst performance since 1989. This is very bad news for the WTBTS.
-
pettygrudger
Actually, won't they take this as a good sign? If I remember right, won't they look at the decline as an indication that their work is almost done?
-
ISP
I am interested in getting the official figures. Don't forget the WTS yr...runs 9/00-9/01 so the UN-NGO fall out will not be reflected in those figures...they will be in next yrs figures.
ISP
-
Skimmer
Be assured that the WTBTS always has a canned response ready that "this is a good sign", no matter what happens.
By the way, it looks like the pioneer numbers are also down. There was roughly a 3.5 percent decrease among the full timers.
-
JanH
Skimmer,
By the way, it looks like the pioneer numbers are also down. There was roughly a 3.5 percent decrease among the full timers.
Interesting. This despite reducing the hours requirement for pioneers, so net effect (actual hours "preached") is even more down!
- Jan
--
"Doctor how can you diagnose someone with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder and then act like I had some choice about barging in here right now?" -- As Good As It Gets -
roybatty
I always have to chuckle when I hear a JW blame the lack of growth in western Europe, the US and Canada on "those countries being materialistic." When in reality it's that the people in those counties just have better access to ALL the information. Poor cults. The information boom is a real set back for them. I always thought that the JW's would peak and then kind of remain steady. But now I'm wondering if the next few years will see a dramatic decrease in numbers. Is a 10 - 20% decrease in the US and western Europe over the next five years possible?