some 2001 year figures reported on wol

by expatbrit 29 Replies latest jw friends

  • Moxy
    Moxy

    oh please. the UN fallout? whatever. the numbers would have been HIGHER since august because of 9/11. the effects of UN events will be negligible on world numbers.

    but really, these numbers are abysmal. they are lower than statistical predictions. note the increase of population in the entire world is about 1.3%, almost exactly the same as the increase in peak here.

    the number of 'drops' (ie baptisms minus increase minus 1% death rate) would be nearly the highest ever. this number is extremely important. it has skyrocketed in the last 5 years. think about what this means. mathematically, as baptisms go up, drops go up. as baptisms go down, drops go down. the more people there are coming in, the more there are available to go out. but what we have here is a decreasing number coming in, and an increasing number going out. more than just stagnancy, this shows a serious backlash. assuming these numbers are accurate, heres the updated chart. see for yourself:

  • metatron
    metatron

    Love your graph!

    The two trend lines could cross in the next two years,
    ending growth.

    metatron

  • Moxy
    Moxy

    exactly metatron.

    and whats significant is that it is NOT a sudden one-time thing like when they cross in the late 70's. look at the difference. this is a trend with the full inertia of worldwide statistics of millions of people behind it. very little could be done now to reverse it.

    mox

  • paulvarjak
    paulvarjak

    Next years figures will be seriously skewed due to the WTC disaster. All those fearful inactives streaming back to the FDS 'the end is almost upon us' nonsense.

    Pity, but expected.

  • outnfree
    outnfree

    Hey, ExPat,

    Don't have much to add except that when I went to the link I found that the thread had been closed a little less than 2 hours after you posted the link here and shortly after a poster pointed out that the baptism figures were the worst since 1989! LOL

    I really just popped into this thread so I could have a look at your pic! Doesn't do you justice, honey! But at least you don't require the double chin covering pose that is de rigueur for me anymore!

    Moxy,

    Thanks for the graph.

    outnfree

    Par dessus toutes choses, soyez bons. La bonte est ce qui ressemble le plus a Dieu et ce qui desarme le plus les hommes -- Lacordaire

  • wannahelp
    wannahelp

    "One more thing: the baptism count was the worst performance since 1989. This is very bad news for the WTBTS."

    Time for them to 'drum up business' with another prediction of Armageddon.. Of course, they won't outright say it, they'll just imply it, and when it doesn't happen, they will blame the R&F..

  • joelbear
    joelbear

    I thought the most telling statistic was that 260,000 were baptized yet the number of publishers only increased by 80,000 which means that a full 180,000 who were active witnesses no longer are this year.

    So for approximately every 1.5 people who became witnesses, 1 stopped.

    This is the key number in my mind.

    Also, my bet is that most of the 15 million that go to the memorial that are not active witnesses are not newly interested ones but inactive witnesses prodded to go by active friends or family.

    Another interesting statistic would be to see what the ratio of memorial attendees to average publishers is each year. My recollection is that historically it has been about 2 to 1 but appears to be approaching 2.5 to 1 which means that in the total witness/interested ones community more are choosing to not be active witnesses.

    Joel

  • MadApostate
    MadApostate

    JB:

    With regard to the Memorial figures, take a look at the ratio of attendees to pubs in some of the African countries.

    I don't have access to any of the recent ybs right now, but from recollection, I seem to recall that often attendees will be 4 or 5 times the number of pubs.

    I've always wondered how the phrase "Invitation to the Lord's Evening Meal" translates in the various African languages/dialects, and how many nonJW Africans show up expecting a free meal?

  • Moxy
    Moxy

    "as intelligence goes up, happiness often goes down. see, i made a graph... i make a lot of graphs."

  • GermanXJW
    GermanXJW

    Here are the figures from Germany (thanks to black-sheep of German forum http://www.infolink-net.de/forum.htm who summed up all the km-figures)

    peak 164.441 (2001:165.924) average 161.440 (2000: 162.932), decrease 0,92% (2000: -0,81), baptized 3.177 (2000: 3.497), pioneers 10.796 (2000: 11.285)

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