Here another one hot off the press, did he say a billion people in the balance SaintSatan. No couldn't be we still have 100 yrs left.
Analysis: Nuke Fears Revived
Posted Dec. 20, 2001
WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- A tough nationalist democrat and a warlord presenting himself as a democrat are on a collision
course -- and the lives of more than a billion people hang in the balance between them.
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee of India and his top ministers now openly accuse neighboring Pakistan, led by President Pervez Musharraf, of waging a systematic campaign of terrorism against India. Vajpayee on Tuesday promised a decisive battle against terrorism. Pakistan denies it is harboring or directing the terrorists.
Vajpayee's government pledged Tuesday to wage at long last a decisive battle against the Muslim guerrillas who, India has long maintained, are controlled as well as supported by Pakistan. Pakistan responded that any cross-border incursion by India "will receive a strong and swift response."
But India, reeling from the shock of what could have been a catastrophic attack on its parliament and entire political leadership by extreme Islamist guerrillas last week, shows no sign of backing down.
Vajpayee leads the second-most populous nation in the world. Musharraf leads the fifth -- soon to be the fourth -- most populous. (China is No. 1, the United States No. 3, and Russia No. 4, but Pakistan with its surging birthrate may in reality already have outstripped it).
Both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed powers.
The men who lead them are a striking study in contrasts. Both leaders rose representing hard-line nationalist constituencies. But they represent very different political dynamics.
Vajpayee built up his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party into the leading political movement in his giant nation of a billion people, the second-most populous nation in the world, indeed, in human history, and the largest successful democracy of all time. He can act tough, and has not given Pakistan an inch over the red-hot issue of Kashmir, but he has spent well over three decades brokering compromises in the comfortable parliamentarian club world of New Delhi.
Musharraf is a heroic warrior and veteran combat soldier in an army smarting from its repeated failures to wrest Kashmir from Indian control in previous wars. And he is a master of the intrigue that has swirled around Pakistan's military and powerful, clandestine intelligence services for decades as they toppled civilian governments, armed Islamic mujahedin warriors in Afghanistan with U.S. support through the 1980s, and worked on their top-priority nuclear weapons program.
Musharraf was born in New Delhi in 1943 before the catastrophic fission that split apart predominantly Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan from the former British Empire, or Raj in 1947, spent his entire career rising in the ranks of Pakistan's military.
In 1998, both nations openly exploded nuclear devices within days of each other. Both are now openly nuclear armed. India developed its own nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Pakistan was greatly aided in its missile technology and development by its historic ally China. Saudi financing played the dominant role in funding its nuclear program.
The two countries have fought three major conventional wars since becoming independent 54 years ago, in 1947, 1966 and 1971.
Millions of people died and countless millions more on both sides became penniless, brutalized and destitute refugees when the British pulled out disastrously fast at under the direction of their last viceroy of India, the late Lord Louis Mountbatten, in 1947. The hatreds sown at that terrible time continue to erupt today.
But India-Pakistan historic tensions have most of all been kept alive by the flashpoint issue of Kashmir.
The northern province, known as Jammu and Kashmir, is overwhelmingly Muslim but has been controlled by India since 1947. Muslim guerrillas backed by Pakistan have for more than a decade waged one of the most bloody guerrilla insurrections in the world to try to drive India out.
Estimates of the death toll on both sides over the past 12 years start at 35,000 and go as high as 80,000. That is more than 20 times the number of people killed in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks that damaged the Pentagon and destroyed the World Trade Center.
The Pakistanis, including Musharraf, assert that the majority Muslims in Kashmir are brutalized by the Indian military. India counters that its army is fighting merciless terrorist fanatics who slaughter entire villages of other faiths.
The acquisition of nuclear weapons by both giant nations has given a new dimension of threat to the conflict over Kashmir.
India and Pakistan both have vast, impoverished majority populations. Therefore, neither of them so far has had the resources to develop survivable second-strike nuclear capacities or hardened missile silos to prevent their nuclear missiles from being wiped out by the other side in some surprise pre-emptive attack.
That means that the threat level between the two is comparable potentially to the hair-trigger tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union in the 1950s and early 1960s, before the combination of détente and second-strike nuclear delivery systems removed the temptation -- or feared threat -- for either side to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike to render its arch foe defenseless at a single blow.
The Clinton administration accorded a high priority to trying to negotiate phased nuclear disarmament between both nations. But because its efforts were grounded in misty idealism and not practical realpolitik, it failed. However, so far, the Bush administration has not done any better.
Any resolution of the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan still looks impossible in the foreseeable future. Earlier this year, Vajpayee and Musharraf met for a historic summit at the famous Indian city of Agra. But hopes of reconciliation or, at least, a thaw in relations, crashed at the first hurdle. The two men could not even agree on a joint statement.
In practice, both men retained their hard-line positions. Musharraf pledged never to give up the struggle to what he called "freedom" for the people of Kashmir. Vajpayee continued to insist that Pakistan had to stop its support for "violence and terrorism being promoted in the state (of Kashmir) from across its borders."
The end of the summit was not reassuring. And nor was much of Musharraf's talk when he was in India. "I cannot live in this make-believe world," he told Indian newspaper editors at a breakfast meeting in Agra. "I cannot live in this illusion," referring to India's continued full control of Kashmir.
Musharraf wanted the summit to concentrate overwhelmingly on Kashmir. Vajpayee wanted to dilute the Kashmir issue by pushing ahead on other ones as well. Musharraf felt this was an attempt to duck the issue he felt most strongly about.
The tone of the end of the summit was worrying. Both sides expressed disappointment, and worse, over the failure to even agree on a joint statement.
Now, the terror attack last week on the parliament in New Delhi has revived hatreds and tensions on both sides at fever pitch.
Vast issues are at stake. The threat of nuclear war, like a colossal, glittering, cosmic sword of Damocles, continues to hover menacingly over 1.2 billion human beings in two of the largest nations on earth.
Everyone who wishes them well can only hope and pray that both leaders will prove capable of taking deep breaths and stepping back from the brink for the common good of all.
Otherwise, all of South Asia could erupt in a nuclear inferno of apocalyptic proportions that would make the terrible events of Sept. 11 look like a firecracker in comparison.
http://www.insightmag.com/main.cfm/include/detail/storyid/160646.html