If passing the bill is a slam dunk for Democratic majorities, then why wouldn't they pass it, even if for purely selfish reasons? Does it come down to the Blue Dogs that will NOT get re-elected if they vote for it?
Because it's a massive undertaking, and it will take a few years to phase in. No one knows for sure that it's a "slam dunk" case in 2010 (one year from now), that's one person's speculation.
Also, as you well know, these "blue dogs" are owned by the insurance companies, so it's hard for them to gauge the bigger threat: democrats not voting for them, or their money spigot being turned off - in which case they would not have the money to finance an election and they could be vulnerable to anyone.
One thing to remember is that someone can truly believe that the only way to change the system is to work from within the system, even if you get dirty doing so. Much as that line of reasoning goes against every fiber of my soul.
All that said, a reform bill IS going to pass. The only question is whether it will favor the people, or the corporations.
I realized something ironic today; traditionally it has been the poor and lower middle class who have been duped into voting against their own interest. But now, suddenly, you have the upper-middle and (some of the) wealthy class roaring against their own interest. Here's how it works: The bill that passes is going to make an attempt, and it's going to largely succeed, in covering the majority of the 47 million uninsured and solidifying coverage for the 20 million or so more who are underinsured. Let's say that the loud-mouths are right, eventually, taxes have to be raised, let's further assume that raising taxes on the over 250K crowd just won't do it; they have to dip down into the 150K+ people.
Ya with me? Good, because what is NOT going to happen, is taxes get raised on the couple making 75k or even 100K, the vast, vast majority of Americans (and yes, that point deserves italics, bolding, underlining, and highlighting). But ok, let's say somebody is going to pay higher taxes (and deservedly so, the very wealthy have been sucking from the social tit and gotten VERY fat at the expense of everyone else in the past few decades). Well what is a bigger hit? Healthcare for 47 million people under for-profit Cigna corporate types? Or healthcare for 47 million people adminstered by a medicare type plan?
Because either way you slice it, we've decided we're not going to be a country with 46 million people uninsured.