Darnit, my whole post about the "Farmer's Almanac" drifted off into cyberspace! Oh man! Whadda waste! That'll teach me to write it somewhere else first.
I think it would have been my second longest post!
It feels like the Ice Age and not Global Warming
by MsDucky 51 Replies latest jw friends
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villabolo
MsDucky, the evidence that has been presented for years indicates not a year here of extreme heat, nor a year there of extreme cold but a pattern of extremes on both sides (with, however more extreme summers than extreme winters). As others have stated on their posts their childhood winters were as severe or nearly so as this one. Since this winter caught people by surprise that implies that most of our winters in the past have been rather milder then they used to be. It also implies that most people are too young, or move from region to region too often, to have an accurate sense of how the weather has been changing.
villabolo
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MsDucky
Villabolo, I got a story to tell you about Joseph and global warming. It goes like this. . .
In the book of Genesis, there is the story of a young man named Joseph, in which it follows the ups and downs of his life. In the tale his own brothers, who were jealous of the attention he received from their father, sold Joseph as a slave. He ends up in Egypt as a household slave.
There is a misunderstanding between Joseph and his master, who is led to believe that Joseph is having an affair with his wife, and he is thrown into prison. At this time, the Pharaoh of Egypt had a puzzling dream. He dreamt that he was standing by the Nile and out of the water came seven fat and healthy cows. These cows were followed by seven thin and withered cows. Suddenly, the seven thin cows ate the seven fat cows.
In the same night, the Pharaoh had a second dream. This dream displayed seven ears of grain that were ample and of a good quality. Next to them sprouted seven ears of shrivelled and wind-beaten grain that, like the first dream, consumed the ample grain.
The Pharaoh believed that his dreams were trying to warn him about something to come, and called out all the dream-interpreters in the land to unravel the message hidden in his dream. Whilst Joseph was in prison, he became well known for his skill in interpreting dreams, and after the Pharaoh had no success in finding the meaning of his strange dreams; he called for Joseph to find the answers.
When Joseph was presented with the dream, he prayed to God for the meaning. After receiving the answer from the Lord, he presented the interpretation to the Pharaoh. The dream meant that there would be seven years of plenty and prosperity, followed by seven years of famine. The famine would consume the land and would leave the country in a dreadful state.
The Pharaoh was shocked by this news and started to panic. A famine is technically described as an excessive and prolonged shortage of food. The famine in Egypt in the story of Joseph is a ‘physical famine’, which means that it was caused by the environment’s natural hostility to Egypt’s agriculture. Drought is the most common cause of famine, and it was an unpredictable drought and a sudden change in the state of the climate that would cause the famine in Egypt.
Drought and famine cause serious damage to a county’s agriculture, economy, and the health of the inhabitants. So, it is understandable that the Pharaoh was in a state of shock and panic. To calm the Pharaoh’s down, Joseph had come up with a plan. He suggested that the Pharaoh should select a man to plan and prepare for the famine. The preparation would involve taking a certain proportion of the produce made in the seven years of prosperity and storing it up in reserve for the seven years of famine. The Pharaoh appointed Joseph to this position.
Joseph’s plan turned out to be extremely successful, and when the famine arrived, Egypt was saved. They had even saved enough food to support the neighbouring countries also hit by the disastrous famine. Many people travelled to Egypt to ask for food to help them through this difficult period. The mass of travellers even included Joseph’s own brothers, who had originally sold Joseph as a slave.
Joseph’s efforts to plan for the drought and the famine, is one of the earliest ever recorded, and his strategy has certainly been adopted throughout the generations. It has become the most effective way of coping with the unpredictability of drought and famine.
The Bible stories can often provide many useful lessons in morality and virtue, but also gives us valuable tips on how to deal with the instability of nature and our atmosphere.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/bible_drought.shtml
You can find other mythology stories about meterology "Gods" and weather here:
http://www.articlesbase.com/science-articles/weather-gods-and-ancient-meteorology-541179.html
or you can Google it or whatever yourself.
Far as I'm concerned, global warming is a theory and is not a fact. My children's children will read about it in the Farmer's Almanac.
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MsDucky
MsDucky, the evidence that has been presented for years indicates not a year here of extreme heat, nor a year there of extreme cold but a pattern of extremes on both sides (with, however more extreme summers than extreme winters). As others have stated on their posts their childhood winters were as severe or nearly so as this one. Since this winter caught people by surprise that implies that most of our winters in the past have been rather milder then they used to be. It also implies that most people are too young, or move from region to region too often, to have an accurate sense of how the weather has been changing.
villabolo
That word "accurate" reminds me of the dub days "accurate knowledge". I do remember my childhood winters in Kansas as well as some of my "not" childhood winters. I can remember it being so cold outside that my tears froze or as my husband would put it so cold that his "piss would freeze before it hit the ground".
You must think that all of us older folks have Alzheimer's or something.
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villabolo
MsDucky, concerning the idea of storing food (or any other necessity) in anticipation of any event; not just drought but diseases, catastrophes, unemployment, etc. is common sense obvious. I used to have two years worth of wheat sealed in nitrogen filled cans with a shelf life of 20+ years at room temperature. I also had a years worth of toilet paper. My supplies have changed since then but I still have the same stockpiling instinct.
It's a pity that people in general don't have that instinct. Some do without needing Joseph to interpret any dream.
villabolo
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MsDucky
Villabolo, you're not the only person with survival "instinct". My husband still has MRE's (and other stuff) from when he was in 'Nam. . .how'd this change from the Ice Age?. . .
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villabolo
MsDucky says: "Far as I'm concerned, global warming is a theory and is not a fact."
Villabolo responds:
Your statement that Global Warming is a theory and not a fact indicates that you have made the same semantical mistake as the population in general does concerning the word 'theory'. The mistake is commonly made by the use of the meaningless phrase "such and such is "only a theory" Both statements represent the misunderstanding that the word theory refers to an unproven explanation on a subject matter. That is not the case. A theory is simply a carefully constructed scientific explanation which may be proven true or false or partially correct. If and when a theory is proven to be correct it is still referred to as a THEORY. There is thus no dichotomy between theory and fact. The semantics do not change if a theory is proven true. Once a theory always a theory, no matter that the theory has been proven true beyond a shadow of a doubt.
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villabolo
MsDucky, I apologize if the tone of my posts sound a little gruff. It's just me from time to time.
villabolo
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MsDucky
Villabolo, you're diverting or changing the subject again. What to do? Gawd!
Introduction to the Scientific Method
The scientific method is the process by which scientists, collectively and over time, endeavor to construct an accurate (that is, reliable, consistent and non-arbitrary) representation of the world.
Recognizing that personal and cultural beliefs influence both our perceptions and our interpretations of natural phenomena, we aim through the use of standard procedures and criteria to minimize those influences when developing a theory. As a famous scientist once said, "Smart people (like smart lawyers) can come up with very good explanations for mistaken points of view." In summary, the scientific method attempts to minimize the influence of bias or prejudice in the experimenter when testing an hypothesis or a theory
I. The scientific method has four steps
1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena.
2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation.
3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations.
4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments.
If the experiments bear out the hypothesis it may come to be regarded as a theory or law of nature (more on the concepts of hypothesis, model, theory and law below). If the experiments do not bear out the hypothesis, it must be rejected or modified. What is key in the description of the scientific method just given is the predictive power (the ability to get more out of the theory than you put in; see Barrow, 1991) of the hypothesis or theory, as tested by experiment. It is often said in science that theories can never be proved, only disproved. There is always the possibility that a new observation or a new experiment will conflict with a long-standing theory.
http://teacher.nsrl.rochester.edu/phy_labs/AppendixE/AppendixE.html
Point taken, Villabolo. So, to you scientific experts, I guess I should say that global warming is not a fact.
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MsDucky
MsDucky, I apologize if the tone of my posts sound a little gruff. It's just me from time to time.
villabolo
There's nothing wrong with discussing things. We're just talking. I'm not hating on you or nothing like that, yet!
It's okay to disagree. Right?