by leo999 28 Replies latest jw friends
So looking at the worldwide report , the baptisms are down , many countries are 0 growth ,publishers, hours , and studies up because of changes in reporting methods . But just how long can the propping up of numbers happen for , before the real downward slide starts ? A year or two tops , which will be real close to 2014 . Plus the Generation change , will surely make many more wake up ...
What do you all feel ?
leo999
I think they know they're in for a difficult time over the next decade and are preparing for it by weeding out those who might make waves from within. Over the next several years, sure, they're going to lose their best and brightest members, but they're going to come out on the other side of it with only the most indoctrinated and worshipful sheep possible, and that's what they want.
The numbers are just used for ego-propping; they aren't really as important as whether the rank & file are unquestioningly loyal.
So what if by 2015 the total publisher number slips down below 7 million? They don't care, because the ones leaving weren't true borg.
Hey Leo, and welcome to JWN btw.
I think the numbers are important to the JW psyche.
If they go down dramatically it will motivate a questioning attitude and more will fall out.
There will be articles trying to explain away the 'sifting'.
They'll concentrate on countries where the growth is still going on and put pressure on the R&F left in developed countries to contribute more money.
Those are some things I see them doing in order to stay afloat. But the WT has a high sustainability rate despite all its failed prophecies.
The circle of their rounding up the wagons is getting tighter and tighter maybe it will it end up suffocating them.
But just how long can the propping up of numbers happen for , before the real downward slide starts ? A year or two tops , which will be real close to 2014.
Sounds a bit like Witnesses waiting for Armageddon - a year or two tops. Maybe it will not happen.
Let's pause for a moment and ask why are they massaging the statistics?
According to their numbers, things are generally fine - more publishers, more baptisms and so on. Yet, they continue to feel the need to make all sorts of little adjustments, as you have pointed out. The latest is dropping the actual zero which used to be printed next to a stagnant country.
I say there is a simple answer to the question. They know that their figures are increasingly bogus. The major piece of evidence here comes to us from the Watergate scandal: "Follow the money". Inspite of all of these glorious numbers, they aren't getting donations and so must cut back on nearly everything.
metatron
I don't see how the growth can continue, unless they start counting slips more than once. Children are being pushed to become unbaptized publishers, and then baptized witlesses, at earlier ages. Yet, they keep leaving as soon as they are old enough to. They can only turn in so many fake time slips and double countings, before they run out of wiggle room.
Not to mention, if they continue killing off their babies (whether with murder or through the suicide cards), pretty soon there won't even be any children to baptize.
The bigger the machine the more oil is needed to keep it running smoothly.
The WTS machine can only run so long without growth before the gears start breaking down.
With no growth, the WTS cuts expenses and asks for increased donations. Eventually, the remaining hardcore JW's get old and can't donate as much unless they are wealthy. Might be more of a guilt trip put on people to leave their estates to the WTS.
The internet has been very exposing of the WTS. With only a 1/3 retention rate, elders dropping like flies and people leaving in droves.....I look for a "softening" of some doctrines & policies that will keep more people in and the money still flowing.
Then again, as Cattails brought out.....they could print articles explaining all this as some great 'sifting' that leaves only Jehovah's true Witnesses remaining right before Armaggedon. The WTS could become more hardcore and fanatical as ever.
Think About It
I suspect the Governing Body are more than just massaging the figures by lowering reporting time requirements for reporting time. I think they are deliberately fudging the numbers for appearances.
They are in deep doo doo and they don't want the JWs to know. Too many "generational" changes along with bad economic times and information availability through the Internet are taking its toll and they don't want the JWs to know.
Thanks Cattails for the welcome and nice to be here :)
Megatron , I remember a yearbook a few years ago , it was full of zeros , looked awful ! Now when the countries are quickly scanned , there are no Zeros , just blanks , so it gives a better 'feel ' .
Wizard and Think about it ...Yes , you are right . I think what drove it home for me , was to see the paperback Bibles now produced . There is something that doesnt seem to sit right with me to have a paperback bible . Maybe Im the only one , but Gods word shouldnt be done on the cheap , just my personal feelings .
Leo999
Most of their stats are dependent on their changing requirements. What they count as a publisher, they can count many only publishing for 15 min now. Aux. pioneers and reg. pioneers can be counted with lower requirements now. How many congs. is just a cong. no matter if it is full or half full. Many hours are counted even when they are talking to no one, meaningless in reality.
The only stat. I pay attention to is the baptisms (the bottom-line "core") and that is decreasing the last few years. 2007 - 298,304 2008 - 289,678 (3% decrease from 2007) 2009 276,233 (5% decrease from 2008) Many are very young children getting baptized. Many personal reports are that most are youth getting baptized versus less adults.
