A riddle my brother gave me today

by bohm 101 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  John Doe

  In my world probability is a sononymous with belief.

  Why don't we see what the dictionary has to say.

  Main Entry: prob·a·bil·i·ty

  Pronunciation: \?prä-b?-'bi-l?-te\

  Function: noun

  Inflected Form(s): pluralprob·a·bil·i·ties

  Date: 15th century

  1: the quality or state of being probable
  2: something (as an event or circumstance) that is probable
  3 a (1): the ratio of the number of outcomes in an exhaustive set of equally likely outcomes that produce a given event to the total number of possible outcomes (2): the chance that a given event will occur b: a branch of mathematics concerned with the study of probabilities
  4: a logical relation between statements such that evidence confirming one confirms the other to some degree

  3 (a) leaves little room for "belief."
• 

  bohm

  John, let me help you.

  What is the probability the next flight to new york will fall down over the atlantic?

  There are two outcomes as i see it: It fall down, or it does not.

  So how do i go from those to the probability? I assume you dont want to tell me its 1/2.
• 

  bohm

  Well, i asked you earlier to give a definition without copy-pasting. Apparently that was not a problem for you back then, but here we go...

  So tell me your definition and apply it to the problem with the 3 kids, as well as the plane over the atlantic.
• 

  John Doe

  John, let me help you.

  What is the probability the next flight to new york will fall down over the atlantic?

  There are two outcomes as i see it: It fall down, or it does not.

  So how do i go from those to the probability? I assume you dont want to tell me its 1/2.

  Now you're changing the problem. Note the dicitonary definition involving "equally likely." Or, is the dictionary wrong too?
• 

  John Doe

  Well, i asked you earlier to give a definition without copy-pasting. Apparently that was not a problem for you back then, but here we go...

  And I did. Note that 3(a)(1) is not substantially different from the definition I gave.
• 

  bohm

  John Doe: No i am not changing the problem, i ask you for a deifnition of probability and you copy paste 4 definitions from a dictionary, without saying which you think is right.

  So your saying its not possible to define the probability of events which are NOT equally likely? Is that how i should understand you? Come on, what is your definition!
• 

  bohm

  so IS 3.1(a) your definition? (now we are getting somewhere)
• 

  Luo bou to

  A factor that is relevant and that needs to be considered is when they had sex or Rather how often. Male sperm die quickly while female sperm can live up to 3 days. So if intercourse occurs the day the woman becomes fertile there is a higher probability that she will conceive a boy ' It is not the same as tossing a coin
• 

  John Doe

  So your saying its not possible to define the probability of events which are NOT equally likely?

  No. I did not say that. However, the entire discussion has dealt with a presupposition that we are dealing with things that have equal chances of happening. That is statistics "in it's most basic form." Not to be terse, but I am not going to use my remaining post count in this pointless exchange. After all, this is becoming too much like a "math class" and I do want to have a life.
• 

  bohm

  CHALLENGE FOR JOHN DOE

  A simple inference task.

  You are hired to work on a research project which use a very expensive piece of machine for an experiment. At each trial of the experiment, there is a chance the machine breaks and has to be repaired, and there is a chance it does not break. The machine is a one of a kind wonder and noone knows, to begin with, how well it will work and how often it will break down.

  After n trials the machine has broken down b times, and worked n-b times. The manager of the experiment is very concerned, and ask you what you think the probability it will break down in the next trial is.

  What is your answer?

  So let me see that math-major at work!