Population 7 billion. Changes ahead.

by Lion Cask 91 Replies latest social current

  • Lion Cask
    Lion Cask

    According to the world population clock, we're going to hit the magic 7 billion number this year. That's 7,000,000,000,000 living human beings on this planet. The world is about to change, again. Putting that number into context, the estimated population of the entire world at the time of Christ was 200,000,000 people.

    We didn't hit our first billion until around 1804.

    Two billion wasn't reached until 1927, 123 years later.

    Three billion happened in 1960, only 33 years later (and that was after WW2 wiped out great chunks of the population)

    Four billion was hit in 1975, the world's population had doubled in 48 years. The older members of this board will remember the year well.

    Five billion. 1986. The world added one billion people in a mere 11 years.

    Six billion everyone remembers. It was in 1999.

    In 2011 we will hit the next milestone and then we'll be at 8 billion by 2024, as long as the UN's projections for improved birth control measures in third world and developing countries come to pass, otherwise it will be reached a year earlier.

    Those of us in the western world (in particular the North Americans) consume great gobs of resources. There is little doubt if the world's population suddenly consumed like we do, it would result in the collapse of the planet. That hasn't happened yet, but there's another profound dynamic at play besides rapid population growth and that is consumerism. People in the two most populous countries of the world are just starting to consume the way we do. They're not even close yet, but that is their ambition. The American Dream has become the Chinese Dream and the Indian Dream and that's why their economies are red hot while ours cool on the back burner. We are pushing the envelope, and they aspire to be like us. The world's consumption of resources has shifted into high gear and there are clear indications it is about to go into overdrive.

    Here's an economic indicator. Wonder why big screen TVs have come down so drastically in price this year? It's because they're everywhere. Companies are making more and more of them to meet demand, and the more units produced the greater the dilution of fixed costs until the total production cost of the unit comes down to its variable input cost. Big screen TVs are made with components supplied by contractors, which produce their component parts under the same fixed cost/variable cost model as the people assembling the TV - in other words, cost to produce is cut to the bone.

    But all those TVs take resources to make and, more importantly, they also consume energy resources. Every additional big screen TV that finds its way into every household in the western nations and in the developing world chews up electricity. That means more hydro, more oil, more natural gas and more nukes. And that's just TVs. We are consuming resources, many of which are not renewable, at a greater and greater rate.

    So. How do you think the world's going to change in the next, say, 50 years?

    http://www.metafilter.com/94959/We-Are-Running-Out-Of-Helium-and-Its-Worse-Than-You-Think

    http://www.worldometers.info/population/

    http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption

  • moshe
    moshe

    I have said it before- the population increases of the world must be curtailed soon.

  • Lion Cask
    Lion Cask

    Something's going to happen, moshe. Maybe that 1919 thing.

    Edit. No, I'm not talking about the bogus annointed org schtick, I mean the Spanish Influenza pandemic.

  • startingover
    startingover

    Not too long ago I was introduced to this series of videos on Youtube. The facts regarding expontential growth are of great concern to me. As I've gone through my life, I have noticed that many things I enjoy doing are now of no interest to me for one reason, too many other people.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

    Here is a better link which has all episodes

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pb3JI8F9LQQ&feature=list_related&playnext=1&list=PL6A1FD147A45EF50D

  • Soldier77
    Soldier77

    I don't have the demographics of the numbers, but where is the largest growth? What countries? Third world? I guess I should Google it... but I'm going to bed.

  • Qcmbr
    Qcmbr

    With this density of population we are ripe for another black death. There is hope however, with economic growth population growth is eventually curtailed when women are allowed to work as equals to men. There are good examples in Italy, Japan etc. where growth is negative. The fly in the ointment is cultural attitudes to children and as usual religions are partially responsible for holding back birth control (Catholics) encouraging large families(lds), slowing adaptation of family structures and crucially grinding womens rights into the dirt.

    There may well be much more bloody resource wars ahead than we've seen in the last 15 years.

  • Mythbuster
    Mythbuster

    This was presented in the latest National Geographic Magazine.

    http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/7-billion

  • Listener
    Listener

    7,000,000,000,000

    I think that's three too many zero's. The above figure would be 7 trillion.

  • Curtains
    Curtains

    listener, mystifyingly, there are two ways of expressing figures - the short scale and the long scale. lion cask is probably using the long scale, so 7 with 12 zeros would still be 7 billion.

    lion cask, I think everyone's going to have to make changes. But I foresee that the developed "North" will expect the developing "south" to make the greatest changes. Whover has the most rhetoric is likely to win but the win will be shortlived as nature generally has all sorts of tricks up her sleeve. I can't think of an optimistic way out of the situation. Can you?

  • Listener
    Listener

    You would be right Curtains, I googled it before I wrote the above. The long scale is British and the short scale is American, it makes it very difficult when they report in the newspapers using Billion or Trillion and they don't often make it clear which scale they are using.

    The Population figure of 7 billion is 7,000,000,000

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