by InterestedOne 16 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
Here is another website that has good info on this, many parts by Alan Feuerbacher>
http://corior.blogspot.com/2006/02/part-3-unassailable-proofs.html
http://corior.blogspot.com/2006/02/part-4-more-unassailable-proofs.html
http://corior.blogspot.com/2006/02/part-5-sanitizing-past.html
Since the end of world war 2 there has been relative peace. Maybe ask him what time period he thinks was a good time to live in, then research it yourself and almost definately it will be worse than the time we are living in now.
Also why does he thiunk there was such a population explosion in the 20th century. It is because people are living longer, less child deaths, and certainly since 1945 less people dying through wars.
The main point to keep in mind is that there were many, many times MORE people alive during the 20th century than during any other time in history. Therefore, there were more people around to be killed during war. If the comparison is simply raw numbers, without putting those numbers in context, then, yeah, it will seem like the Society has a point. Ditto for famines, disease, etc. What you need to do is look at what percentage of the total global population those numbers represent. When you make that the basis for comparison, suddenly the 20th century numbers aren't so impressive.
And the explosion in population is really staggering--For most of human history, deaths roughly equalled births, which meant the population stayed static. It wasn't until the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th to 19th century that the population started to really grow. By the early 20th century (pre-1914), it was soaring and continued to soar all through the 20th century until the late 1960's.
But this leads to another point you might want to raise with your conductor. It is a well-established demographic fact that when populations (whether fish, birds, or people) are under stress (ie famine, disease, upheaval, violence, etc.), they do not grow, or grow extremely slowly. In fact, the combination of factors (ie famine PLUS disease, or disease PLUS war, etc.) has a depressive effect on populations--they shrink. That's one reason why so many animal species are endangered right now. Yet when you look at the 20th century, you find that human population exploded--exactly the OPPOSITE of what you might expect if we really had been living in the worst of times. Why is that? Because even with 2 world wars and all the social and political unrest, things were getting better. Medical advances meant people WERENT DYING of disease. Agricultural and technological advances meant people WERENT DYING of famine (okay, obviously many did--I mean its relative when looked at globally. For instance, when famine strikes today, often the UN or other nations step in with food supplies, which simply didn't happen 200 or 300 years ago).
The point is (and this is what got me thinking seriously on my way to the fade), what should population demographics look like if things really were as terrible as the Society makes them out to be, especially given that these "terrible times" have been going on for a century now? For one, populations should be nose-diving. And they're not.
This is too long a post, but as final thought, you may find it intersting to check out the UN's Millennium Goals Update . While the picture is not all rosy by any means, it's amazing what has been accomplished. You won't find info like that in the Bible Teach book.
Actually, Jesus doesn't say that wars are a sign that the end is imminent but rather the opposite. He says that wars are a sign that "the end is not yet."
"And in answer Jesus said to them: "Look out that nobody misleads YOU; for many will come on the basis of my name, saying, 'I am the Christ' and will mislead many. YOU are going to hear of wars and reports of wars; see that YOU are not terrified. For these things must take place, but the end is not yet." ~Matthew 24:4-6
Mark says the same thing. Wars are a sign that the end is not yet here.
You might ask why the scripture says that "wars and reports of wars" are a sign that the end is not yet but that your conductor, and the Bible Teach book say that wars are a sign that the end is imminent.
Other than that, this probably like Black Sheep says, isn't a really important issue to push hard. Wait for the big one (Watchtower's appointment in 1919, based on 1914, based on 607) before you really hit with the damaging questions.
[interesting side point, "Christ" means anointed, so Jesus is saying many will come and claim to be anointed, misleading people]
In the last 2,000 years, mankind came closest to extermination from pandemic and famine. The Black Death, beginning in the 14th century, for instance, killed off 75 million people worldwide and a third of the total population of Europe.
From 1333 to 1337 a terrible famine killed 6 million Chinese. The four famines of 1810, 1811, 1846, and 1849 are said to have killed no fewer than 45 million people. [ 66 ] The period from 1850 to 1873 saw, as a result of the Taiping Rebellion, drought, and famine, the population of China drop by over 60 million people. [ 67 ]
When looking at the number of deaths, as others have said, consider the total population of the earth at the time.
From Wikipedia's article on world population, "population of Europe was more than 70 million in 1340. [ 18 ] The Black Deathpandemic in the 14th century may have reduced the world's population from an estimated 450 million to between 350 and 375 million in 1400. [ 19 ] It took roughly 200 years for Europe's population to regain its 1340 level. [ 20 ] China experienced a population decline from an estimated 123 million around 1200 to an estimated 65 million in 1393, [ 21 ] which was presumably due to a combination of Mongol invasions and plague. [ 22 ]"
Here's a chart I made up using known events and estimated world population. Populations are in the millions. By proportion, humanity came closest to extermination from the Black Death, NOT on the Jehovah's Witness timetable of events. A full fifth of the world population was exterminated. By the way, the Black Death did cause an increase in religious fervor, hedonism and fear of end-times. As a candidate for prophesied end of the world events, the Black Death is a far better fit than WW 2.
| http://www.vaughns-1-pagers.com/history/world-population-growth.htm |
| Date Range | Event | Est. World Population | Loss | Net Effect | Proportion of World |
| 1000 | 400 | ||||
| 1200 to 1393 | Chinese plague, war and famine | 404 | 58 | 346 | 17% |
| 14th Century | Black Death Pandemic | 450 | 75 | 375 | 20% |
| 1500 | 500 | ||||
| 1800 | 900 | ||||
| 1810 to 1849 | Chinese Famine | 902 | 45 | 857 | 5% |
| 1850 to 1873 | Chinese Rebellion, Drought and Famine | 857 | 60 | 797 | 8% |
| 1900 | 1,608 | ||||
| 1939 | 1,967 | ||||
| 1939-1945 | 62 to 79 million deaths from WW 2 | 1,967 | 79 | 1,888 | 4% |
| 1950 | 2,406 |
Mad Sweeny - "Actually, Jesus doesn't say that wars are a sign that the end is imminent but rather the opposite. He says that wars are a sign that "the end is not yet."
Good catch, dude. You're absolutely right.
I was already to chime in but Mad Sweeny already got in there. I think that Jesus' words as recorded shoot down the whole JW interpretation when read carefully. I know that JW's won't listen to him so you may need to point out where wars and plagues killed many more people prior to 1914. Look around, I've seen the figures a time or two.
