VAT 4956 - Comparison Of The Lunar Three Time Intervals For Years 568/7 BCE and 588/7 BCE

by AnnOMaly 53 Replies latest watchtower bible

• 

  AnnOMaly

  VAT 4956 - COMPARISON OF THE LUNAR THREE TIME INTERVALS FOR YEARS 568/7 B.C.E. AND 588/7 B.C.E.

  The online Sky View Café (SVC) and the Cartes du Ciel* (CdC) astronomy programs have been used for these results.

  Observer's location: Babylon, 32° 33' N / 44° 24' E.

  SR = sunrise; SS = sunset; MR = moonrise; MS = moonset.

  568/7 B.C.E., Nisanu 1 = April 22/23

  Month/Day	Julian Date	Interval	Text	SVC	Difference	CdC	Difference
  I.14	May 6 a.m., 568	SR-MS	4°	3.75°	0.25°	3.5°	0.5°
  II.26	June 17 a.m., 568	MR-SR	23°	23°	0°	29.25°	6.25°
  III.1	June 20 p.m., 568	SS-MS	20°	22.75°	2.75°	19°	1°
  III.15	July 5 a.m., 568	SR-MS	7.5°	8.25°	0.75°	10.75°	3.25°
  XI.1	Feb 12 p.m., 567	SS-MS	14.5°	17.25°	2.75°	19.25°	4.75°
  XII.1	Mar 14 p.m., 567	SS-MS	25°	26°	1°	27.75°	2.75°
  XII.12	Mar 26 a.m., 567	SR-MS	1.5°	0.5°	1°	0.25°	1.25°

  Comments:

  SVC's range of difference between its results and that of the text is 0° to 2.75°. Average difference 1.2°.

  CdC's range of difference between its results and that of the text is 0.5° to 6.25°. Average difference 2.8°.

  Conclusion:

  Even though the CdC program seems to be a little more erratic with the accuracy of its time interval results compared to SVC, every 568/7 B.C.E. Lunar Three time interval is accounted for and mostly agrees with the text's figures. This set of lunar data confirms the year as correct.

  588/7 B.C.E., Nisanu 1 = May 2/3 (Furuli's calendar)

  Month/Day	Julian Date	Interval	Text	SVC	Difference	CdC	Difference
  I.14	May 16 a.m., 588	SR-MS	4°	!	!	!	!
  II.26	June 27 a.m., 588	MR-SR	23°	27.75°	4.75°	35°	12°
  III.1	June 301 p.m., 588	SS-MS	20°	5.5°	14.5°	4.75°	15.25°
  III.15	July 15 a.m., 588	SR-MS	7.5°	!	!	!	!
  XI.1	Feb 22 p.m., 587	SS-MS	14.5°	9.75°	4.75°	12.25°	2.25°
  XII.1	Mar 24 p.m., 587	SS-MS	25°	21.5°	3.5°	23.25°	1.75°
  XII.12	Apr 52 a.m., 587	SR-MS	1.5°	!	!	!	!

  Notes:

  ! No measurement of the type specified on the tablet could be taken that day according to these programs' simulations.

  1 This measurement could not have been taken on this date as it was before first lunar crescent visibility. Still, the computed values are included.

  2 Furuli has April 3/4, but this would be a counting error on his part if Addaru 1 = March 24. There is some confusion with his dates for 587 B.C.E.

  Comments:

  SVC's range of difference between its results and that of the text, when a time interval could be taken, is 3.5° to 14.5°. Average difference 6.9°.

  CdC's range of difference between its results and that of the text, when a time interval could be taken, is 1.75° to 15.25°. Average difference 7.8°.

  Conclusion:

  These Lunar Three time intervals, omitted from Furuli's (and thus the Watchtower's) study of the tablet's lunar data, clearly confirms that the May-based year 588/7 B.C.E. can be confidently excluded as a match for VAT 4956.

  588/7 B.C.E., Nisanu 1 = April 3/4 (Parker and Dubberstein's tables)

  Month/Day	Julian Date	Interval	Text	SVC	Difference	CdC	Difference
  I.14	Apr 17 a.m., 588	SR-MS	4°	!	!	!	!
  II.26	May 29 a.m., 588	MR-SR	23°	17.5°	5.5°	24°	1°
  III.1	June 1 p.m., 588	SS-MS	20°	13.5°	6.5°	11.5°	8.5°
  III.15	June 16 a.m., 588	SR-MS	7.5°	5.75°	1.75°	6.75°	0.75°
  XI.1	Jan 24 p.m., 587	SS-MS	14.5°	16.25°	1.75°	20°	5.5°
  XII.1	Feb 23 p.m., 587	SS-MS	25°	27.75°	2.25°	29.5°	4.5°
  XII.12	Mar 7 a.m., 587	SR-MS	1.5°	!	!	!	!

  Notes:

  ! No measurement of the type specified on the tablet could be taken that day according to these programs' simulations.

  Comments:

  SVC's range of difference between its results and that of the text, when a time interval could be taken, is 1.75° to 6.5°. Average difference 3.5°.

  CdC's range of difference between its results and that of the text, when a time interval could be taken, is 0.75° to 8.5°. Average difference 4°.

  Conclusion:

  These 588/7 B.C.E. Lunar Three results fare better than those in the previous table. However, it's clear that 568/7 B.C.E. remains the far better match out of the three scenarios.

  * In The Watchtower, November 1, 2011, p. 28, note 19, Cartes du Ciel is referenced as one of the programs used to analyze VAT 4956's lunar data.
• 

  AnnOMaly

  Comments, questions, constructive criticism and the results of anyone else's research are welcome

  Please also compare the results of Stephenson and Willis as well as Prof. Hunger, which can be found HERE (scroll ¾ of the way down).

  There are a couple of members on this board who, I'm sure, will post the fruits of their research in due course too.
• 

  AnnOMaly

  bttt
• 

  Alleymom

  AnnOMaly --

  Beautiful charts and splendid work! Thanks so much for posting these!

  As you know, I have been re-checking my figures from 2007, using Sky View Cafe (SVC). I completed my calculations tonight, and I agree with you exactly on almost all of your figures. I had slightly different results for two of your SVC results:

  On your first chart, 568/7 B.C.E., Nisanu 1 = April 22/23,

  Here is what I have for Month XII, day 1:
  
  Month XII, day 1
  March 14, 567 BCE [-0566-03-14]
  sunset 18:06
  moonset 19:50
  SS-MS = 104 minutes = (104/4)º = 25.75º
  VAT 4956 = 25º

  You have 26º using SVC and I have 25.75º

  ---------------------------------

  On your third chart, 588/7 B.C.E., Nisanu 1 = April 3/4 (Parker and Dubberstein's tables)

  Here is what I have for Month XII, day 1:

  Month XII, day 1
  Feb 23, 587 BCE [-0586-02-23]
  sunset 17:53
  moonset 19:42
  SS - MS = 109 minutes = (109/4)º = 27.25º
  VAT 4956 = 25º

  You have 27.75º using SVC and I have 27.25º

  Could you recheck those two and tell me whether you agree with my figures?
  I was practically seeing cross-eyed by the time I compared my results to your results to the VAT 4956 results for all three years!

  Marjorie
  
• 

  Alleymom

  Note to casual readers whose eyes are glazing over ---

  If you look at the second chart AnnOMaly posted for Rolf Furuli's hypothetical year 588/587 BCE with New Year on May 2/3, you will see that in some places she has an exclamation point instead of a numerical result.

  In her Note, AnnoMaly explained the exclamation point:
  
  "No measurement of the type specified on the tablet could be taken that day according to these programs' simulations."

  I tried to explain this to Neil (Scholar) about four years ago. It is very simple and it explains why Furuli's proposed year DOES NOT WORK!

  http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/watchtower/bible/145519/5/587-607-Question

  In post 1176, I wrote:
  
  Neil, let me give one example. On dates near the middle of a lunar month, the moon sets in the western sky shortly after the sun comes up in the east. So you have sunrise in the east, and then a little later you have moonset in the west. You can measure how much time passes between sunrise and moonset.
  
  VAT 4956 gives measurements on two* different days (Month I, day 14 and Month XII, day 12) for the time-interval between sunrise and moonset.
  
  Furuli's dates are absolutely impossible, because on his days, the moon actually set before sunup! You can't measure the interval between sunrise and moonset if the moon has already set before the sun comes up.
  
  I hope this helps.
  
  *[Note: When I wrote this I left one out. There are actually three middle-of-the-month measurements on VAT 4956 that are absolutely impossible in the year that Furuli proposes.
• 

  Alleymom

  http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/watchtower/bible/145519/5/587-607-Question

  In post 1176, I wrote:
  
  Neil, let me give one example. On dates near the middle of a lunar month, the moon sets in the western sky shortly after the sun comes up in the east. So you have sunrise in the east, and then a little later you have moonset in the west. You can measure how much time passes between sunrise and moonset.VAT 4956 gives measurements on two* different days (Month I, day 14 and Month XII, day 12) for the time-interval between sunrise and moonset.
  
  Furuli's dates are absolutely impossible, because on his days, the moon actually set before sunup! You can't measure the interval between sunrise and moonset if the moon has already set before the sun comes up.
  I hope this helps.
  
  *[Note: When I wrote this I left one out. There are actually three middle-of-the-month measurements on VAT 4956 that are absolutely impossible in the year that Furuli proposes.

  Repeated with new emphasis.

  Say it is the middle of the lunar month in ancient Babylon. Remember, the first day of the month is when you can see the sliver of the crescent moon, the new moon, for the first time. So around the middle of the month you are looking at a moon that is just about a full moon.

  If you wake up early, a little before sunrise, it is still dark and you can see the full moon in the western sky. The sun rises in the east (duh!) and a little later the moon sets in the west. VAT 4956 measures the time BETWEEN sunrise and moonset. We abbreviate this SR - MS.

  If the moon sets BEFORE the sun comes up, then the interval SR - MS is meaningless! You can't measure the interval between sunrise and moonset if the moon has already set and IS NOT THERE IN THE SKY!

  In footnote 18a of the article, "When Was Ancient Jerusalem Destroyed? Part Two", WT 11/1/2011), the WT tries to discredit the Lunar Three time intervals. The WT claims the Lunar Three time intervals were supposedly unreliable measurements because those ancient waterclocks were not accurate.

  Folks, the accuracy or inaccuracy of the water clocks does not matter if the MOON WASN'T EVEN IN THE SKY to be measured!
• 

  Alleymom

  I'm not sure if this will display well, but here is a shot of Sky View Cafe showing Month 1, Day 14, year 568 BCE.
  This is the first of the Lunar Threes recorded on astronomical diary VAT 4956.
  The ancient Babylonian astronomers recorded a time interval of 16 minutes between sunrise and moonset.
  The modern astronomy program Sky View Cafe shows that there were 15 minutes between sunrise and moonset, which is quite accurate.
• 

  Alleymom

  Let's see if this picture is any sharper.
  Once again I am showing a picture of sunrise on May 6, 568 BCE.
  Pay attention to the full moon on the right side of the picture in the western sky.

  In a minute I will show the view from the WT's proposed year of 588 BCE.
  In 588 BCE you will not see the moon in the sky at sunrise because it had already set.
• 

  Alleymom

  Okay, this is moonset on the same day as the previous picture.
  Moonset was at 5:29 am, 15 minutes after sunrise, which was at 5:14 am.
  Year is still 568 BCE, the year that all scholars accept.

  Next up will be Month I, day 14 in the WT's proposed year of 588 BCE.
• 

  Alleymom

  Okay, I have been leading up to this one!
  
  VAT 4956 records a time-interval of 16 minutes between sunrise and moonset (SR - MS) on Month I, day 14 of Nebuchadnezzar' 37th year.
  We have seen that a modern astronomy program, Sky View Cafe (SVC), shows the interval SR - MS was 15 minutes on that date in 568 BCE, which is the year accepted by all scholars.
  
  The WT proposes the alternate year 588 BCE.

  That date is IMPOSSIBLE because on Month I, day 14 of 588 BCE (where New Year was on May 2/3), we cannot measure the time that elapsed between sunrise and moonset because the full moon was NOT VISIBLE IN THE SKY AT SUNRISE! It had already set.

  This is the meaning of the ! in AnnOMaly's charts Two and Three in the first post of this thread.

  The WT tries to confuse matters in their discussion of the Lunar Threes in footnote 18a on page 28 of "When Was Ancient Jerusalem Destroyed? Part Two," WT 11/1/2011 by saying the measurements taken by the "ancient observers" using "some sort of clock" were "not reliable."

  It does not matter what kind of clock you have if you cannot measure SR - MS because the moon is NOT EVEN IN THE SKY. It does not matter if you have a Timex, or a Rolex, or an atomic clock, or an ancient water clock, or if you just count ONE-Mississippi, TWO-Mississippi --- you cannot measure moonset for a moon that is not there!

  Here is the picture: