Just a little experience I had a while back. Thought it was funny so here we go. (There's also a couple of links you might want to use for your own reference)
The other week my parents were picking me up from town and they told me about a talk the brother had given. My mom told me that the brother had said 'from 1986 to 1996 there were only 15 earthquakes 7.0 and above, but from 1997 to 2007 there were 99!' He had also claimed that 'More people have died because of war in the 20th century than in all the wars fought in the last 3000 years.'
Thankfully I'd already done some research on Earthquakes and Wars, and I immediately knew the brother had just pulled those statistics out of his ass. I decided to e-mail my mom the next day with this information:
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I think I managed to find the statistics you were referring to from this link:
http://www.earth.webecs.co.uk/
At the bottom of the page it says;
"...between 1986 and 1996 (incl), a period of 11 years, there were "just" 15 earthquakes listed by USGS of magnitude 7.0 or greater.
...But between 1997 and 2007 (incl), a period of only 11 years, there were 99 earthquakes with magnitude 7.0 or greater : This is more than a six-fold increase..."
This is patently false.
Firstly the NEIC locates around 15,000 earthquakes on average each year, and the averages for great earthquakes ranging from 5.0 - 9.9 have been constant since the beginning of the 20th Century. You can take a look at the yearly averages here. Notice at the bottom of the page it gives the number of recorded earthquakes from 2000 - 2011, you can also check the numbers for the 1990's, or use this list which goes back as far as 1970.
If you count the quakes ranging from 7.0 - 9.9 a decade from 1997, you'll see the total is actually 161, not 99.
Furthermore, if you count quakes of the same magnitude a decade from 1986, the total comes to 139, not 15.
Organizing earthquakes by decade also shows there isn't really a pattern of increase. It's much more haphazard.
Earthquakes 5.0-9.9
1970-1979: 15,344
1980-1989: 15,934
1990-1999: 14,768
2000-2009: 15,716
Earthquakes 7.0-9.9
1970-1979: 154
1980-1989: 105
1990-1999: 153
2000-2009: 144
Earthquake Deaths
1970-1979: 815,956
1980-1989: 58,880
1990-1999: 101,726
2000-2009: 471,015
For an understanding of why many think earthquakes have been increasing, you can have a look at the USGS response to that claim.
In terms of the other statistic mentioned, about there being more war-related deaths in the 20th century than in all the other centuries put together, I thought these numbers might interest you.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll#Wars_and_armed_conflicts
You'll see that there are 9 Wars mentioned which started in the 20th Century, while the other 14 all started earlier. Keep in mind this isn't a count for ALL the wars, just the most devastating ones recorded in history.
Taking the most conservative estimate for all wars listed, two times as many people died in wars previous to 1900 than in those afterwards.
Taking the most liberal estimate for all wars listed, 126 million more people died in wars previous to 1900 than in those afterwards. (incl. WW1 + Spanish Flu estimate)
Thanks
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This was her reply:
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Interesting stats..
I guess though that the fact still remains that the predictions for the last days have to be taken as a whole feature and are not dependant on
one single aspect.
Increases in
Wars - After what I just emailed you? Famine
Disease
Earthquakes - SERIOUSLY!?!? Lawlessness
Hate & Selfish attitudes etc..
The preaching of the good news
False prophets
Gods people hated and persecuted
all within this generation indicate we are in the last days.
Despite the fact that man has made major advancements in science to improve life.
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Does anyone else see the way she completely ignored everything I said??
