firstly yes we all know most jw bornins leave but a quarter give or take continue. im going to argue that this is the only source of any increase. those that leave are barely replaced if at all by new recruits in third world countries. all things considered are they really growing or stagnating ? could it be possible they count anything that moves even if they dont attend, until they are dfd?
is jws really growing or only natural increases from kids.?
by mP 25 Replies latest jw friends
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av8orntexas
I know lots of people eating ,drinking,marrying,and having kids.....as if the end will not come.
I'm going to say kids. I know ALOT of people with kids. Most are 6months- 6,7 years old. Very young kids.
I think most of your new people are born-ins. They go through the motions....get baptized. But when they hit 18, if they can they're on the first thing smoking out of their parents house
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OnTheWayOut
You are probably on the right track. They "count" people who turn in their recruiting slips. That's the Seven point whatever Million "publishers." I think they really have peaked and are not truly growing now. They have learned to get children younger and younger to turn in those slips and they force people older and older to continue turning in those slips.
But that's not all- they have a larger memorial attendance than their membership. Any "growth" including unbaptized children and "studies" are in there. I highly doubt that field recruiting gathers enough people to replace even those that are dying, certainly not those that are leaving. But they have turned the pressure on to capture the people coming to the memorial.
One statistic I would love to know- country per country, if you count the kids who grew up in it and never got baptized and the people who left via fade, DA, or DF, would the number be higher than those still turning in the slip of paper for recruitment? I have to think that there are more than a million ex-JW's of all these sorts in the United States.
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I Want to Believe
I've found too, that even those few who seem to come in from outside always have a JW background or relative somewhere in their past.
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jwfacts
The World historical and predicted crude birth rates ( number of childbirths per 1,000 people per year) is 22.4 for the years 1995 to 2000. See http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=world+population&d=PopDiv&f=variableID%3A53%3BcrID%3A900 I have used those years as they are the current crop getting baptised.
With 6,000,000 JWs during that period, the estimated number of births per year is 134,400. Since only 1/3 of those raised JWs remain, then the net increase attributed to JW children is 44,800. The increase in Average Publishers in 2011 was 170,742. Those from the territory are 170,742 - 44,800 = 125,942) Therefore, the increase is predominantly from people in the territory. However, those still are not good figures, as that is the result of 1,707,094,710 "reported" hours of preaching.
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slimboyfat
Since only 1/3 of those raised JWs remain
Isn't that figure for the US? If so then I don't think it can be assumed apply to JWs globally.
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jwfacts
The figure of 1/3 came from two different US reports. However, if I remember correctly, it was also supported by R Franz as being a global figure, and supported by analysis of the global reports. It is only a rough estimate, but I think fairly accurate.
Interestingly, since the GFC/earthquake etc of the last three years the net number leaving has decreased, but no doubt that will balance out against once conditions pick up again. Humans are a fickle bunch.
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slimboyfat
Ray Franz left the organization over 30 years ago!
I am all for statistical analysis, but sometimes you have got to accept the data are simply not there. There is no basis for for applying the 1/3 retention rate worldwide. For that matter its evidence base in the United States itself is pretty weak as I recall.
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jwfacts
SBF - The Pew report seems very well conducted. It interviewed 35,000 US adults which provides a significant sample size for groups as small as JWs, though still has a +/- 7.5% error rate. It stated that "Only 37% of those who say they were raised as Jehovah's Witnessess still identify themselves as Jehovah's Witnesses." and that, "67% of those affilited as JW's switched religion."
Even going beyond the extreme end of the error rate and saying 50% remain, there would still be more that come in from the territory than are from internal births.
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Poztate
They count those who put in 15 minutes a month as publishers
They play with figures to give them what they want
In the future a 15 min publisher might be classed as a "pioneer" if they put in an hour.
