is jws really growing or only natural increases from kids.? (page 2)

slimboyfat

What is the basis for applying the figure outside the United States?

As I recall Leolaia commented that the sample size of JWs in the Pew report was too small to draw firm conclusions. Something like a hundred or two hundred JWs took part. Where do you get the 7.5% margin of error from?

In 1975 Beckford concluded that 2/3 of JW children stay in the movement (from a survey conducted in the UK) and in 1997 Rodney Stark quoted a 70% retention rate among JWs born into the religion in the United States in his article "Why Jehovah's Witnesses Grow So Rapidly: A Theoretical Application", page 153. Both again from small samples.

Basically I don't think we have reliable or consistent data on this subject so as to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Let alone taking a US figure and applying it globally.

http://www.theocraticlibrary.com/downloads/Why_Jehovah%27s_Witnesses_Grow_So_Rapidly.pdf

exwhyzee

The Congregation I attended split 3 times remodeled once and built a new hall once, because of growth. Everyone new to the Hall was raised in the Truth and newly married with small kid(s) of thier own. There was only one (never been a JW) new person in our Hall who was brought in because he was married to a DF'd JW girl who was reactivated when someone found her at the door. It was a big deal when he came into "the truth" He cut his hair, became a MS etc. Sadly, two months ago, he committed suicide.

When I look at the facebooks of the Witnesses I know, all the kids who left the truth still keep in touch with eachother as well as the ones that stayed in. It doesn't seem to matter to the young ones whether they are DF DA or whatever, they still keep in contact. Things are really getting lax...not that I'm complaining. I think in another decade, this religion will just sort of fizzle out.

mP

@jwfacts

while your math is sound, im going to make a statement that religious people have more kids than non religious. the more funi the more kids, and im afraid i feel jws have more kids on avg, especially with the internet being banned and plasmas being a luxury. if we dpuble the birthrate my statement almost becomes trith. it is also true that there are a lot more younger than older types in the congs. this bias prolly means more kids.

does anyone habe any kid out of total cong figures ?

jwfacts

It is hard to know the birth rate of JWs for sure. Unlike other fundamentalist religions, JWs are encouraged not to marry or have children, so theoretically they should have less kids. However, my feeling is it is probably similar to the general population.

Watchtower 2008 Apr 15 p.19 Single and childless for a Noble purpose.
"... numerous couples have decided to remain childless ... to remain free to serve Jehovah ... putting Kingdom interests above some of the privileges that go with marriage ... Jehovah will not forget their work, and the love they show for his name... There will be a great tribulation ... it will be difficult time for us adults and children alike ..."

Watchtower 2000 August 1 p.21 Why Do They Have No Children?
"Although Noah's three sons were all married, none fathered children until after the Deluge. While this does not imply that it is wrong to have children today, many Christian couples decline to have children so as to become more fully involved in the urgent work that Jehovah has given his people to do. Some couples have waited for a time before having children; others have decided to remain childless and consider the possibility of bearing children in Jehovah's righteous new world."

Watchtower 1988 March 1 p. 19 Childbearing Among God's People
"If the expansion of Christianity was to come about mainly by childbearing, Jesus would not have encouraged his disciples to "make room" for singleness "on account of the kingdom of the heavens." (Matthew 19:10-12)
How should Christians view marriage and childbearing today, in this "time of the end"? (Daniel 12:4) It is truer than ever that "the scene of this world is changing," or, as another translation puts it, "the present scheme of things is rapidly passing away."-1 Corinthians 7:31, Phillips. Now, as never before, "the time left is reduced." Yes, only a limited time remains for Jehovah's people to finish the work he has given them to do, namely: "This good news of the kingdom will be preached in all the inhabited earth for a witness to all the nations; and then the end will come." (Matthew 24:14) That work must be accomplished before the end comes. It is, therefore, appropriate for Christians to ask themselves how getting married or, if married, having children will affect their share in that vital work.
During all this pre-Flood period, Noah's sons and their wives had no children."

wha happened?

in Los Angeles, the english congs are merging quite a bit. Any growth here is the forign language congs

mP

@jwfacts

as rebuttal to the noahs children had no children but noah the big wig had at least three kids himself. go figure.

biometrics

Maybe try looking at the world population growth vs Jehvah's Witnesses membership growth.

Jehovah's Witness annual growth is currently 2.4% (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jehovah%27s_Witnesses)

Worldwide population growth per annum is 1.4% (see: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=world+population+growth). Maybe JW born-ins are more than 1.4%? I know they were in my congregation. But to be fair we will take the 1.4% official figure.

So Jehovah's Witnesses are growing at 1% above general population growth.

This 1% growth rate is accounted for by the preaching efforts, which total around 1.2 billion hours per annum. That's 4,054 hours per convert. Image if that was paid work, it'd be somewhere around $40,000 to $80,000 per convert.

mP

@biometrics

the wiki articles gives the current count for 2012 as 7m with 2001 at 6m or 1m over 11 yrs. btw im using the avg not the peak value after all we are talking averages and not trying tooo cook the numbers. even doing straight math without the compound stuff this is about 1.5%. if we are true and do the compound thing the rate is closer to 1¡ another interesting stt from the graph is the 6m avg was first reached in 1998. this means it took 14 yrs to add another 1m or 16%. this no way near 2.5% that you claim. by my calculations they are growing at less than the avg birth rate as defined by the un!

biometrics

@mP Thanks for the correction. My observation was cursory, and based on the statement in the wiki article: "Jehovah's Witnesses estimate their current worldwide growth rate to be 2.4% per year".

By your calculation, Jehovah's Witnesses rate of increase is actually a decline against avg birth rates.

Maybe JW's are the fastest growing religion (in some areas) because their numbers are declining the least?

nugget

Jw facts you make an interesting point however some of the reported publishers may be born ins who have not yet left the organisation but will do in future so the increase due to born ins may be slightly higher than indicated but not by much.

is jws really growing or only natural increases from kids.?

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