Looking back over the time I was in bethel, I think the decline began around 2001. I was still in bethel then and heard that donations had taken a steep decline during the pre-9/11 recession. After 9/11, the number of publishers took a jump as some faders and by-standers reactivated. I didn't get the impression that donations completely recovered, but they had improved some and stablized. The 9/11 excitement later stagnated. There was no sustained increases going forward.
In the 3 years or so after 9/11, I didn't see indications that the society was 'suffering' financially. I noticed some department shuffling and cost-cutting, but the corp was still spending and moving forward on expensive projects expanding Wallkill for more printing. Departments like Audio/Video Services were still spending a lot on productions and sign language stuff. But Information Systems and lots of the bethel home departments were getting slashed. By 2005, it was becoming more obvious inside Bethel that things were changing, uncertain, shrinking instead of growing. In the late 90s, there had been a lot of talk about building at South Lansing, NY, but that wasn't going to happen as the 2000s rolled around. At the time, I think Canada still had a lot of unused space in their expanded branch. There was talk of expanding Patterson, but that didn't seem realistic. There was talk of a big project on WT's big DUMBO property, but that wasn't moving forward. More bethelites were "leaving" and not being replaced... myself included. This was about the same time that they reduced Awake! to monthly.
About a year later was "here's your special dinner... to go" program. That's when they informed the US bethel family that many of them would have the "privilege" of returning to support the growth in the field. *barf* I was glad to be long gone before that happened.
I believe you are correct that 2005 would be a turning point when the society finally gave outward appearances that things were not well in WTland. I would go earlier around 2001 that the "upward momentum" of the society really stopped. I think they've done enough shuffling for the past decade that they have hid many of their problems. I would suspect that the number of publishers has already been decreasing, but they've been juggling the numbers to hide that reality. They've reduced the hours for reg pios, and the reduced hours for aux pios during the campaign months. Cuts and reductions are all over the place. And now 1/2 magazines? Even if they were just doing 'okay', I don't think WT would be cutting the magazines in half. It will be interesting to see the reaction to the smaller magazines next year.
Any predictions on what will get cut next? I'm thinking fewer COs in larger circuits.
