by Marvin Shilmer 17 Replies latest jw friends
Gun Ownership and Homicide Rate
For persons interested in the ‘more guns more homicide and less guns less homicide’ discussion I have some recommended reading:
Kleck, Kovandzic and Schaffer, Gun Prevalence, Homicide Rates and Causality: A GMM Approach to Endogeneity Bias, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Discussion Paper No. 5357, November 2005
PDF available online at: http://www.iza.org/en/papers/202_30012007.pdf
Marvin Shilmer
Homicide requires a killer who WANTS to kill the victim.
More guns, or less guns, will not change that basic root dynamic.
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Here’s another excellent resource on the subject of gun ownership and homicide rate:
Kates and Mauser, Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder and Suicide? A Review of International Evidence, The Berkeley Electronic Press bepress Legal Series, Year 2006, Paper 1413
PDF available at: http://law.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6426&context=expresso
Marvin Shilmer
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None of the above is to draw fire from pro-gun or anti-gun grandstanders.
I’m interested in substantive discussion.
- If that’s not for you then please find some other discussion thread to lay your egg.
- If substantive discussion is for you, then please feel free.
Marvin Shilmer
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“Homicide requires a killer who WANTS to kill the victim.”
I’m not so sure that’s true as stated.
Some folks kill not because they want to necessarily kill but because they inflicted harm to the point of causing death whether that’s what they wanted to happen or not.
But I’d agree that determinants of murder and suicide are social, economic, and cultural factors and not the prevalence of a particular type of weapon.
Marvin Shilmer
Here’s another excellent resource on the subject:
Centerwall, Homicide and the Prevelance of Handguns: Canada and the United States, 1976 to 1980, American Journal of Epidemiology, 1991, Vol. 134, No. 11, pp. 1245-1260:
“As compared with Americans, Canadians in the 1970s possessed one tenth as many handguns per capita. To assess whether this affected the total criminal homicide rate, the mean annual criminal homicide rates of Canadian provinces were compared with those of adjoining US states for the period of 1976 to 1980. No consistent differences were observed: criminal homicide rates were sometimes higher in the Canadian province, and sometimes higher in the adjoining US state. Major differences in the prevalence of handguns have not resulted in differing total criminal homicide rates in Canadian provinces and adjoining US states. The similar rates of criminal homicide are primarily attributable to underlying similar rates of aggravated assault.”—Centerwall, Homicide and the Prevelance of Handguns: Canada and the United States, 1976 to 1980, American Journal of Epidemiology, 1991, Vol. 134, No. 11, pp. 1245-1260.
And,
Centerwall, Author's Response to "Invited Commentary: Common Wisdom and Plain Truth", American Journal of Epidemiology, 1991, Vol. 134, No. 11, p. 1264:
“Finally, is the prevalence of handguns a determinant of the homicide rate? According to teh analysis under discussion, evidently not. If you are surprised by this finding, so am I. I did not begin this research with any intent to "exonerate" handguns, but there it is—a negative finding, to be sure, but a negative finding is nonetheless a positive contribution. It directs us where not to aim public health resources. In a world of limited funding, that is almost as important as defining the target.”—Centerwall, Author's Response to "Invited Commentary: Common Wisdom and Plain Truth", American Journal of Epidemiology, 1991, Vol. 134, No. 11, p. 1264.
Marvin Shilmer
So if everyone carried knives then it would have zero impact on homicide rates? No one would get stabbed in an argument or a fight? They would just be for show only?
You seem keen to dissociate what availability means from increased death rate.
Quick google search very 1st result:
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/research/hicrc/firearms-research/guns-and-death/index.html
1. Where there are more guns there is more homicide (literature review).
Our review of the academic literature found that a broad array of evidence indicates that gun availability is a risk factor for homicide, both in the United States and across high-income countries. Case-control studies, ecological time-series and cross-sectional studies indicate that in homes, cities, states and regions in the US, where there are more guns, both men and women are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide.
Hepburn, Lisa; Hemenway, David. Firearm availability and homicide: A review of the literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior: A Review Journal. 2004; 9:417-40.
2. Across high-income nations, more guns = more homicide.
We analyzed the relationship between homicide and gun availability using data from 26 developed countries from the early 1990s. We found that across developed countries, where guns are more available, there are more homicides. These results often hold even when the United States is excluded.
Hemenway, David; Miller, Matthew. Firearm availability and homicide rates across 26 high income countries. Journal of Trauma. 2000; 49:985-88.
3. Across states, more guns = more homicide
Using a validated proxy for firearm ownership, we analyzed the relationship between firearm availability and homicide across 50 states over a ten year period (1988-1997).
After controlling for poverty and urbanization, for every age group, people in states with many guns have elevated rates of homicide, particularly firearm homicide.
Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. Household firearm ownership levels and homicide rates across U.S. regions and states, 1988-1997. American Journal of Public Health. 2002: 92:1988-1993.
4. Across states, more guns = more homicide (2)
Using survey data on rates of household gun ownership, we examined the association between gun availability and homicide across states, 2001-2003. We found that states with higher levels of household gun ownership had higher rates of firearm homicide and overall homicide. This relationship held for both genders and all age groups, after accounting for rates of aggravated assault, robbery, unemployment, urbanization, alcohol consumption, and resource deprivation (e.g., poverty). There was no association between gun prevalence and non-firearm homicide.
Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. State-level homicide victimization rates in the U.S. in relation to survey measures of household firearm ownership, 2001-2003. Social Science and Medicine. 2007; 64:656-64.
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There are lots of articles on guns and homicide. I have selected the ones above for three reasons:
1. Each challenges notions of ‘more guns more homicide and less guns less homicide’.
2. Each is nested in what appears to be solid research.
3. Insofar as I can tell none of them are authored by individuals with axes to grind one way or another.
Marvin Shilmer
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“You seem keen to dissociate what availability means from increased death rate.”
Witness My Fury,
I’m sorry I do not follow your conclusion above.
How have I demonstrated a keenness “to dissociate what availability means from increased death rate.”
Please explain.
Marvin Shilmer
Here's another: http://www.uphs.upenn.edu/ficap/resourcebook/pdf/monograph.pdf
Ooh and another one: http://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/bitstreams/96411.pdf
Yep and another one: http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/105/4/888.full
I seem to within a few minutes find plenty of reasonable material stating the exact opposite, that weapons availability = more death
