2012 report analysis - growth of JWs according to local internet availability

by cedars 37 Replies latest jw friends

  • konceptual99
    konceptual99

    Well, Shadow, I guess if you want to be really picky you could say that there is no evidence to back up the suggestion of a correlation. I doubt Cedars has done any peer reviewed research to investigate and prove that a population with a higher availability of Internet access per head is less likely to be experiencing growth in converts to the Jehovah's Witness faith. I also suspect that a similar graph would be produced if you looked at proportion of those with higher education certificate, those countries with more children in school before 6 years old, higher levels of literacy, levels of belief in God and the Bible in general v secular opionins or any other number of comparators.

    That does not mean there is not a link and you don't need to have a statistics degree to see that growth is lowest in countries with the best access to education and information. It will be blindingly obvious to the GB that the cash rich western sheep are (a) not so cash rich anymore and (b) stagnating. The growth that there is in the west is in the foreign language population. Brothers in western lands are tiring and either becoming more hardcore or just drifting. I am not predicting the end of the org anytime soon but I don't think their old school tactics of slow change over time will continue to work for much longer.

  • cedars
    cedars

    FYI - I never said correlation = causation. We had this argument last year, and I yielded.

    The figures are there for each person to interpret individually.

    The simple fact is that JWs are not experiencing strong growth in lands where there is widespread availability of the internet. You can do with that information what you will - but the statistics themselves or the graph they have created cannot be argued against because I've published the data used as a PDF for anyone to cross-check and verify. This makes peer review irrelevant. It would be different if I was making assertions about the figures, but I am not. The figures stand on their own merits.

    Cedars

  • breakfast of champions
    breakfast of champions

    I just took statistics this past semester and the first thing my prof. asked us to do is remove the word(s) "proves/proof" from our vocabulary.

    CEDARS charts are still valuable, as they do provide a visual to grab hold of, rather than just a bunch of numbers. Yes, there are other variables (economic, social) which surely correlate with JWs growth along with Internet perfusion, but I don't see any glaring problem with the charts. "For entertainment purposes only".

  • moshe
    moshe

    Cedars, may I use that graph to send to somone? I plan to paste it on the back of a postcard- with caption," the truth sets people free from JWs"- Thank you for this information- very good.

    Here, I have my postcard ready to address to a JW up north from my old KH-

  • cedars
    cedars

    moshe, by all means use it! I hope it will prove helpful.

    I have reasons for putting a copyright notice on it, but I'm happy for people to use it in that way.

    Cedars

  • jgnat
    jgnat

    Factors that I use that are readily available, that I think have an impact on JW growth, include:

    • Human Development Index, really a set of weighted factors, designed to measure the well-being of a population. Higher HDI is a damper on WT activities.
    • GDP per capita. A higher GDP has a damper effect.
    • A history with Christianity. The WTS message is dependent on a foundation laid by "Christendom". Such countries are a growth opportunity.
    • Countries with an official religion and perhaps a ban on proselytizing are a definite damper. There are virtually no JW statistics for those countries
    • Ready internet access has a damper effect.

    There are countries that are experiencing no growth this year that according to the factors I can check, should be doing better (experiencing growth). I wonder what other factors could be at work there. These include Argentina, Cameroon, Congo, Romania, and Russia.

    • Could there be cyclical growth patterns, where a country simply reaches its saturation point? There may be an upper limit of dupes in the world. (Damper effect)
    • There could be internal troubles, as what happened in Japan a few years ago, that impacts growth. (Damper effect)
    • Local disasters might have people running to religion (i.e. 9-11) (Growth opportunity)
    • A drop in earning power or HDI, causing greater insecurity (Growth opportunity)
    • As TheOldHippie suggests, other factors may be at work. Is a country with an older demographic more vulnerable? I think we can rule out the male/female ratio. I think that is generally even around the world so would be a negligible effect.
    • The activities of other religions or local politics. Is Islam in the rise in that country?
  • konceptual99
    konceptual99

    Hi Cedars. Just to clarify I meant no critism of your info in my last post. It was just a response to Shadow. I think the visualisation of these figures does speak for itself and any number of measures based around education, access to information, acceptance of non religious viewpoints etc. would mirror the trend.

  • shadow
    shadow

    lies, damn lies and statistics!

    maybe it's caused by per capita income, maybe using internet for porn, maybe education level

    graph is for entertainment only but seems to me that more is implied

  • cedars
    cedars

    konceptual99 - don't worry! I knew exactly what you were saying and I knew it wasn't a dig at me! I appreciate your input.

    shadow - you are without doubt the most hilarious apologist I have ever met on this forum, with your quaint villainish ways.

    Long may you plague my posts and try to throw a spanner in the works. I find it entertaining seeing you try!

    Cedars

  • shadow
    shadow

    not an apologist, just looking for truth instead of crap from either side

    "For What It's Worth"

    There's something happening here
    But what it is ain't exactly clear
    There's a man with a gun over there
    Telling me I got to beware

    I think it's time we stop
    Children, what's that sound?
    Everybody look - what's going down?

    There's battle lines being drawn
    Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
    Young people speaking' their minds
    Getting so much resistance from behind

    It's time we stop
    Hey, what's that sound?
    Everybody look - what's going down?

    What a field day for the heat
    A thousand people in the street
    Singing songs and carrying signs
    Mostly saying, "hooray for our side"


    It's time we stop
    Hey, what's that sound?
    Everybody look - what's going down?

    Paranoia strikes deep
    Into your life it will creep
    It starts when you're always afraid
    Step out of line, the men come and take you away

    We better stop
    Hey, what's that sound?
    Everybody look - what's going down?

    We better stop
    Hey, what's that sound?
    Everybody look - what's going down?

    We better stop
    Now, what's that sound?
    Everybody look - what's going down?

    We better stop
    Children, what's that sound?
    Everybody look - what's going down?

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