Write a letter in a year or so, unless you are related to one of us and just give it about three months.
You forgot about cases where an elder is attracted to a disfellowshipped one. I know a case of disfellowshipped female who was openly celebrating a "worldy" holiday and then about a month later she was reinstated, with the meeting where she was reinstated being only the third time I saw her at the Kigndom Hall after she was disfellowshipped. It was so disgustingly obvious that it was because two members of the Body of Elders were attracted to her that she got special treatment.
It was actually because of this situation, and one of the two elders attracted to the disfellowshipped woman proving himself to be a disgusting liar in relation to another situation, that I started posting on JWN.