Lots of baptist/evangelical groups are growing. There is nothing particularly remarkable about JWs having some growth in places such as the United States, which is entirely consistent with many people leaving big religions and trying out smaller ones. The fact remains still that most JW growth, worldwide, is by birth, with pretty dismal conversion rates per member. And the retention rate of those born in to the religion is also falling.
Irony of Ironies: THE WATCHTOWER WILL END LONG BEFORE THE WORLD DOES!
by steve2 23 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
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slimboyfat
Baptists are declining in the UK. And there are not many evangelical churches still growing. Those that are consist almost entirely of black Pentecostal churches focused around London. Besides which, those few churches that are growing are dwarfed by the sustained and massive decline of most churches in the UK.
I don't know that people are leaving big churches and joining smaller ones. Where do you find that information? The statistics I refer to come from the church attendance surveys conducted by Peter Brierley of Christian Research.
You haven't given a timeframe for comparing JW growth against population in western countries.
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Jeffro
I wasn't talking about the UK. I referred to the United States in particular, but my statements also relate to general trends in Australia (where I am).
As regards a timeframe I would suggest around 10 years, though it would be interesting to consider various timeframes such as 5, 10, 15 and 20 years, each up until the present.
Some factors affecting membership in this period include:
- Change in doctrines relating to 1914, faithful slave, anointed
- Increased access to information online
- 9/11 / Iraq / Afghanistan
- Global financial crisis
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steve2
SBF, you bring a welcome skepticism to our comments about declining numbers 'coming into' and 'participating in' the organization. On reflection, you're justified in stating that JWs are still increasing worldwide and that the decline we have often spoken about is overstated. As with the organization itself, we cannot help but bring out own selective lenses to the "statistics". I acknowledge I share that much in common with the religion of my birth; i.e., overly focus on some figures that seem to "prove" my points.
That said, the numbers do show a flat-lining or slowing down of average publishers, more prominently seen in western/industrialized countries. The other point I mentioned is the longer lag between peak publisher numbers and the eventual 'catch-up' years later in average numbers.
For example, in New Zealand in 1995, there was a new peak of 13,340 publishers with an average of 12,573. It took another 14 years - 2009 - before the average had reached anywhere near the 1995 peak: 13,462. 14 years to catch up - look at earlier years when the peak virtually became the average within 2 to 3 years and often even less than that.
While you acknowledged the declining numbers baptized worldwide, you tended to gloss over it by stating the overall numbers were still increasing. Huh? It's baptisms that give a strong indication of growth. Again, in New Zealand there has been a continuing downward trend from 615 in 1995, to 499 in 2009 and last year (2012), 269. Annual numbers baptized halved - and New Zealand is not unique. Go to any comparable industrialized country and, with one or two exceptions, the decline is evident.
Interestingly, in response to Jeffro's comment about other churches and religious groups also growing, you specifically zero in on the growth of groups with black membership in London. That is precisely the point we have been making for some time about the (remaining) growth of the JWs in western countries - it is largely - and primarily - among other ethnic group, including immigrant, congregations. In New Zealand, immigrant population congregations are burgeoning whilst English language ones are not.
Anecdotal evidence reported by those who post here is that English-speaking congregations are more and more composed of older adults which is a siginificant compositional change from even a decade or two ago. Sure, that is not incontrovertible evidence that the organization's membership is in decline - but it suggests that the growth we do continue to see is to a large degree from ethnic "pockets".
Yes, you're right: As much as growth in publishers has slowed down in Western countries, the witnesses still report new peaks. That is acknowledged. But, that could be a reflection of the growing emphasis on baptizing "born-ins" at younger and younger ages and, before that getting them out door-knocking. The question of whether many who are baptized then become inactive has been well discussed on this forum.