I bet it's up to near 20 million, possibly over 20 million.
2013 MEMORIAL ATTENDANCE & DC BAPTISM NUMBERS SOUGHT
by steve2 33 Replies latest jw friends
-
-
steve2
Anticipating numbers, either up or down, is a fascinating pastime leftover from my JW upbringing. We loved to see the "kingdom flourish" and the churches decline. Stats ruled - yeah!
To put expectations in perspective, here are some recent stats for Memorial attendances and baptisms worldwide to illustrate broad trends:
YEAR
BAPTISMS
MEMORIAL
ATTENDANCE
2002
265,469
15,597,746
2006
248,327
16,675,113
2010
294,368
18,706,895
2011
263,131
19,374,737
2012
268,777
19,013,343
I guess based on past trends, an expectation of over 20,000,000 should be within reach, but doubt lingers. The more than 360,000 fewer attending the memorial last year than in 2011 has been optimistically "explained" as caused by day-dependence (the day upon which the Memorial observance fell inconveniently prevented greater attendance - a uniquely odd explanation offered, given that for multiple decades memorial attendances were not numerically dependent on the day the Memorial fell - but there you go; some explanations make sense, some sound desperately creative).
The shrinkage from fairly common 300,000 plus annual baptisms of earlier decades seems well-trended now, although as with all human activities and vicissitudes, prone to peaks and valleys.
-
slimboyfat
How do you know memorial attendance has not been affected by the day it falls on in the past?
Remember, more important than the day the memorial fell on in 2012, is the fact that it fell on a Sunday in 2011. So 2012 was not so much an unusual trough as 2011 an unusual peak.
-
slimboyfat
My guess is actually that 2013 memorial attendance will be around 19,600,000, and maybe they will reach 20,000,000 next year. Especially if the memorial happens to fall on a Sunday again!
-
Julia Orwell
I read a news report from somewhere in the USA that of about 5000 at the dc 26 people, the majority under 18, got baptized. I was a Jw 14 years here in Australia and dc attendance stayed about the same at 7500-9000 Friday-Sunday respectively but baptisms went from over 100 to about 75. Will be interesting to see the 2013 stats for Australia and USA.
-
steve2
SBF, as the saying goes, why speculate about things that will soon be seen? You and I have different views on the growth status and ongoing potential of the Witnesses - although we share more similar views on the "Truth" status of the organization. More relevantly,you and I have exchanged views on this topic on a few threads over the months, if not recent years. But I digress, perhaps I should just answer your post and go easy on the perspective-taking? Here goes: To the best of my knowledge, when Memorials have fallen on Sundays in past years, attendances have not fallen relative to the previous year. Those with the annual stats prior to the 1990s may be able to determine the day of the week upon which respective Memorials fell to determine if my memory serves me right. I am happy to leave the matter there for now. As for your claim that 2011 showed a bigger that usual annual increase in Memorial attendance, hence making the 2012 decrease seem even bigger, I am again taking the invitation to offer you further praise on your unusual creativity in having consistently positive explanations for decreases or stagnation in the organization blindly fond of trumpeting increases.But, we both speculate about the attendances don't we? I like what you wrote in your first response to my OP: The 2014 Yearbook will have the worldwide stats for Memorial attendances and baptisms and we'll know in November. All will be revealed, rendering either your speclation or mine closer or farther from what is officially reported.
-
steve2
SBF, your guesses for 2013 appear to have been modified downwards from your earlier post on this thread. You now guess around 19,600,000 and they could reach 20 million.In your earlier post, you guessed over 20 million. Moreover, after calling the increase from 2010 to 2011 an "unusual peak", you virtually guess the increase from 2012 to 2013 will be an even more unusual peak!. Well, that will leave you with a handy explanation for any subsequent shrinkage in 2014 - the unusual and even more unusual peaks of 2011 and then 2013! There is a certain creativity in your way with explaining and guessing that I am compelled to describe as creative. Again, roll on November.
-
slimboyfat
Steve you prompted the speculayshun!
And attendance goes up not down on Sundays!
Jeezo man.
-
Phizzy
I always find the figures of interest, and thank you Steve, and others, for your insightful analysis of them. The WT/JW's have always made a big thing about increasing numbers.
If a very obvious decrease comes along, as I think it will soon, if not this year, then next and beyond, this will of course be spun by the JDubs as a sign we are nearer the "End" because the "love of the greater number is cooling off", or somesuch nonsense.
-
Julia Orwell
Yep phizzy, I've heard that reasoning used. You cant win: numbers go up: "see how Jehovah is blessing the work; the end must be close!" to "the numbers are going down! The love of the greater number is cooling off so we must be close to the end!" The Wt BS has its bets hedged.