2013 MEMORIAL ATTENDANCE & DC BAPTISM NUMBERS SOUGHT

by steve2 33 Replies latest jw friends

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  slimboyfat

  Memorial attendances are pretty volatile. They are not the best statistic for evaluating growth anyway. In my view the best statistic in that regard is the number of congregations, because it's a figure that reflects long term trends rather than contingencies such as the day a meeting falls on. Plus it is a figure that can't easily be faked or manipulated. Individual publishers may put in false reports, or the organisation might relax the requirements for pioneers, thus skewing those figures. But a congregation is a congregation. It is a legal and social entity that has a secular as well as an internal imprint and arises only through local effort independent of fudged figures or organisational requirements.

  Congregation numbers is one of the key reasons we know Mormon growth figures are bogus for example. For years they have been claiming growth in various places, while simultaneously the number of congregations has been going down. How come? Because their membership figures are grossly inflated by not subtracting those who fall away from the religion from their numbers. But the congregation statistics don't lie, Mormons are in significant decline in most of the world, including poorer countries.

  As you correctly say, I don't believe JWs have the truth, and if they genuinely started to decline I would be all over that! But it hasn't happened yet. In fact predictions of JW decline on this site have come to resemble JW reports on the nearness of Armageddon - "just around the corner", "all the signs are in place now", "maybe next year".
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  Phizzy

  Thanks SBoy, I never thought to use Congo numbers, I always used to look at the ratio of JW's to the general population, which must be a fair guide too, and that does not show any global dramatic decline.

  I suppose our prophecies on here are more likley to be proved correct one day than anything the Dubbies may say about the Big A !
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  slimboyfat

  I hope so Phizzy!
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  2+2=5

  I know that the memorial attendance in my kingdum hall (Australia) was as low as I have seen. It is usually overly crowded but this year it was just comfortably full. Everyone I asked from different congs said their attendance was either average or down slightly.

  This religion will get more obscure with each passing year.
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  amos77

  Sorry, Don't know about Australia but certainly intensive marketing with leaflets and even giuving alternative programme times. Hope the Full moon fittd in with the programme.
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  steve2

  Number of congregations as a proxy of growth is unreliable. For example, in New Zealand, a few congregations were merged because there were too few elders and, at thesame time, additional congregations in a couple of larger population centres were established for a relatively small number of immigrant populations. On paper, it appeared as if there were now more attending meetings because there were now more congregations. Look at the "growth" rates for NZ publishers - the peak of more than ten years ago has finally been reached in the average number of publishers.

  The use of number of congregations is unreliable because bigger congregations are not routinely sub-divided (it depends on the availability of elders and ministerial servants) and in immigrant areas, there are several much smaller congregations.

  Baptisms - an aspect of growth SBF appears to have difficulty even mentioning - is a pretty reliable indicator of the prospect of growth.

  BTW, Slim, you say I started the speculation.No. You did. My OP simply asked if the2013 Memorial attendance stats were available. Besides, I ain't complaining about your speculation which would be rich, given mine! As I said, all will be revealed!
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  slimboyfat

  I said you prompted the speculayshun Steve

  Number of congregations is an excellent indicator of growth or decline, for reasons actually including those you cite. Because it captures more than merely what is written on time slips or the varagries of Watchtower counting practices when it comes to pioneer hours and so on. The very fact that elders are required in order to form new congregations is itself a mechanism that checks empty growth figures. To form a congregation requires real local effort, that can't be faked on a time slip or inflated by changing the hourly requirements. Plus unlike most other Watchtower figures, congregations are in principle independently verifiable, if anyone was bothered to take the time to count them and compare the number with that claimed in the end of year report.

  All figures are a "proxy" for growth in a certain sense. Inasmuch as all such measures are socially constructed approximations for an idea that we choose to describe as growth or decline. As a social scientist yourself I am sure you can appreciate that no one measure has the final say. We pick and choose for various reasons according to our purposes. Growth is not a thing that exists independently of our grappling to understand whether it is represent or not.
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  steve2

  SBF, I agree that no one indicator reliably conveys growth or is absence. No. of congregations, however, is not well aligned to either growth or is absence for the reasons I stated and that you rightly picked up on. Indeed, number of congregations is a better reflection of the "health and wellbeing" of existing attendees, whether active witnesses or not.As with all groups whose heyday recedes into the distance, the organization attracts a growing number of "back-sliders" who are notoriously inconsistent in their attendance patterns (I look within my own family for examples of "neither in or out" attendees. I enjoy your responses btw. You,ve raised my awareness on many aspects I had no considered.
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  EdenOne

  How about observing the trends in the evolution of the ratio publishers / population ?

  Eden
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  steve2

  Eden thanks. That's perhaps one of the most solid pieces of evidence for establishing whether and to what extent the ratio of witnesses is growing (or declining) in comparison with specific population growth figures. I think that JWfacts.com has some interesting comments about that. To be fair, though, you'd likely discover that, in specific chunks of the world (e.g., Islamic-dominated countries), the absence of JWs would be startlingly unchangable, whereas in other parts (e.g., Zambia, Netherlands) the JW presence appears to be healthier, despite stagnaton among the witnesses in some countries such as Denmark.

  Of course, you could pare down the comparisons even further. For example, in New Zealand, we have two sources of data for the "presence" of JWs: Their own annual report and Census data. The latter usually show a good third more than the publisher figures identifying as affiliated with the JWs - we know that's because the Watchtower counts as a JW only those who engage in the ministry, even for as little as one hour a month, whereas Census data is looking at affiliation, even if it's based solely on self-report. I guess the closest proxy the Watchtower has to Census-type affiliation is the Memorial attendances - which usually brings out every man and his panicky dog to attend. The varieties of back-sliding are an endless source of wonderment to me, both in the JWs and any other religion you care to name (But Mormons would take the cake for winner of the nominal membership annual award).