I would say that the number one factor in whether or not you get DF'd is this, " Was is considered a " serious sin ", and was it well known." It's all about image. Were you bringing reproach upon the made up name of the WTBTS's God. If so, you will be df'd. Why? The WTBTS has an carefully crafted image to maintain. It must be protected at all costs. The second reason would be this, " Did you cause others to stumble, doubt, did you set a bad example ( again the more widely known, the more likely a DF'ing ).
The only reason that the latter situation matters if that it can have a direct bearing on the 1st, that being the crafted image of the WTBTS. The leaders really don't care what you do. They don't care if YOU live or die, are rich or poor, married or single, gay or straight. They ONLY care about how they look to the outside world, saving face, advertising thier lifestyle to protect corporate interests and ensure the longevity of the Organization. That's all that matters.
So if you can fake repentance, you will probably not be df'd IF..IF, you have not done something widely known to the public, or affected multiple people/families and " stumbled" them. Molestation is a whole different animal, the reputation of the Organization is protected by NOT talking about it, where as other " sins " can be discussed more openly as "proofs " that the organization is being kept clean. So, for example, you will NEVER read a story in the Awake magazine about an ex-child molester having thier life changed by studying the Bible with Jehovah's Witnesses. You will find story after story of junkies, thieves, homosexuals, drunkards, martial artists, ect..