Will Rudd learn from the lesson of Brown?

by slimboyfat 12 years ago 12 Replies latest 12 years ago social current

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  slimboyfat 12 years ago

  Isn't Australian politics fascinating?

  Having toppled the woman who first toppled him, Prime Minister Rudd now faces the choice of calling an election sooner or later. It was a similar choice that faced Gordon Brown in the UK when he replaced Tony Blair in 2007. Gordon Brown was remarkably popular at the time, a brief popularity that came out of nowhere and that equally disappeared never to return. But having geared up to hold an election in the autumn of 2007, Gordon Brown backed down at the last minute, only to go on to defeat as one of the shortest serving Prime Ministers in 2010.

  Gordon Brown thought that acting as world statesman during the G8 summit in the middle of the financial crisis would give him credit with the electorate. Similarly Rudd may find it hard to resist the temptation to attend the G20 summit in September before calling the general election.

  But here is my prediction: if Rudd calls the election before September he'll win and if he calls it later he'll lose.

  Will he learn the lesson of Brown?

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  Julia Orwell 12 years ago

  He'll strike when the iron is hot this time I believe.

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  fulltimestudent 12 years ago

  The Labour party under Julia was heading for a wipe-out, or so the pollsters tell us. With so many MPs facing defeat, any gains resulting from Rudd's electoral popularity is a positive

  AustralianPolitics is a private site, but its owner publishes some good stuff ( http://australianpolitics.com/2013/01/07/who-will-win-the-2013-federal-election-part1.html )

  The site points out how finely balanced Australian politics can be, and a swing of only 1%, if focussed on electorates held by small margins can produce big changes.

  I suggest the party turned to Rudd to save them from being reduced to a rump. So from that viewpoint even if the ALP loses the election, but hold onto most of their seats, the change back to Rudd as leader will have been successful.

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  barry 12 years ago

  I believe there is a honeymoon period for Rudd and if he doesn't move soon his party will be wiped out anyway

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  jwfacts 12 years ago

  Rudd presents a good face, but behind the scenes is manipulative and narcissistic. He was kicked out for good reason, much of which has been forgotten. In the short time he has been back, he has shown to be unchanged. The longer he waits, the more time for people to realise how much they dislike him.

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  slimboyfat 12 years ago

  He better get a move on calling that election or he'll have blown it!

  He can't be any worse than Gordon Brown, who it turned out is actually quite deranged.

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  fulltimestudent 12 years ago

  U may be pleased to know SBF, that the election will be on Sept. 7.... so now the shit and mud will really fly, and any rationality that may exist in Aussie politics will disappear into the great heap of muck that sits in Canberra.

  I will not be voting, or rather to save me a JW flashback, my vote will be informal with something rude written on it.

  Why so? because there are no genuine democracies. What we have in Australia (and most, if not all, English speaking nations) are a couple of large self-perpetuating oligarchies (just like the WT Corporation) (OK, there are some small ones that are just as hopeless) that set up a list of candidates and then use sales and marketing techniques to try and get people to elect them.

  These oligarchies do have some public membership, that they usually manage to ignore, but its interesting to note that the membership of both Aussie political parties is somewhat smaller than an average sized football club. Both of the two main oligarchies in Australia have a key concern. That is to get elected to office. That's all.

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  Truth seeker 674 12 years ago

  A couple of self serving Oligarchies. maybe more than a couple. But well said.

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  slimboyfat 12 years ago

  Cool, so the die is cast. I hope he wins.

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  finallysomepride 12 years ago

  here in aussieland it doesn't matter who one votes for yay still gonna end up with an arshole in power i'm just glad i have no vote here, so not having to make that choice.

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