Just got to thinking how long can the Watchtower peddle the 'soon' story with any credibility?
I would say there are the oldtimer or born ins in the 70+ age group - they possibly remember the 2nd World War, and maybe joined for 1975 or made life affecting decisions meaning they are so commited with 'nowhere else to go' that they have surrendered to the resurrection hope.
Then you have the '1986 International year of Peace, the 1914+70 year' generation crowd. People in their 40s and 50s now. maybe the children of those older folks mentioned above. They grew up having a date - now they don't. They are resigned to 'not serving for a date' but still hold a quiet hope for it 'coming in my lifetime'. They are looking at a long wait for the big sleep, possibly without children or adequate provision for retirement. Perhaps they hang their hat on 'climate change' - god will bring to ruin...and all that.
Now the 'soon' generation in their 20's and early 30's. These have never had a specific date - its always been 'soon'. If they are recruits they signed up on the basis of 'soon'. Or perhaps the children of those above who had the rug pulled by the 1995 generation change. These are the age group that I think are most likely to leave en masse - its probably already started. There is clear evidence the menfolk aren't racing to be MS or elders. They have the most to lose - the best years of their lives - and they are most likely to be active on the Internet and socially connected to non-believers. I also think they are less naive, more inquisitive - the knowledge is out there
What do you think? How long is 'soon' going to work for?