I think it's largely due to the day of the week the Memorial falls on, nothing more significant as that. In 2011 it fell on a Sunday. Next time it falls on a Sunday again there will be another upward spike, simple as that.
Memorial attendance in the USA a DROP of 59,404 from two years ago
by Watchtower-Free 40 Replies latest watchtower bible
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OnTheWayOut
Does Revelation or anything Paul wrote mention the great leveling off in the land of the King of the South?
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besty
will be significant if the global figure drops 2 years in a row - I don;t think it has dropped 2 years on the trot - not even after 1975...
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steve2
Year
Memorial
plus/minus
Day of Week
2002
2,240,095
Wed(03.27.02)
2003
2,297,847
57,752
Wed(04.16.03)
2004
2,326,973
29,126
Mon(04.05.04)
2005
2,280,734
-46,239
Sat(04.23.05)
2006
2,331,314
50,580
Wed(04.12.06)
2007
2,372,049
40,735
Mon(04.02.07)
2008
2,437,943
65,894
Sat(04.19.08)
2009
2,488,620
50,677
Wed(04.08.09)
2010
2,505,679
17,059
Mon(03.29.10)
2011
2,563,518
57,839
Mon(04.18.11)
2012
2,502,055
-61,463
Fri(04.06.12)
2013
2,504,114
2,059
Mon(04.25.13)
I've followed the discussion to date on the USA memorial attendance numbers for 2013 but decided to hold off until I had done my homework. I've collated the annual Memorial attendance numbers for the USA from 2002 until this year (I could have taken the collation further back but do not have the memorial numbers before 2002 on hand at present).
Regarding the attendance numbers, an explanation is required: From what I have seen, it has only been in the past 2 or so years, that the total numbers for the USA have included those for Hawaii and Alaska (prior to this, those two countries had their own separate listings). Thus, any year-by-year comparisons needs to also include Hawaii and Alaska in the totals for the USA - otherwise it will look like a significant increase in the numbers for the USA when these two countries were added.
Now to some observations on the US memorial attendance numbers for the past 12 years: Ten of those years saw increases ranging from a high of more than 65,000 in 2008 to a low of just over 2,000 last year.
Taking a closer look, and including the day of the week upon which the memorial was held, the following is noted: The memorial fell on Monday and Wednesday nights 5 and 4 times respectively, on Saturday twice and Friday once (hence no Sunday memorials over this 12-year span).
For one Saturday, decreased attendance was reported (in 2005 = -46,239), and for the other, increased attendance was reported (2008 = 65,894).
The other year of decreased attendance was last year (much discussed on this forum over the months - but for the worldwide decreased attendances but that's another story): -61,463.
However, as SBF was quick to remind us, this year there was an increase of (wait for it....) 2,059 over last year's decrease. Fair enough.
What is interesting, however, is that after the decreased attendance of 2005, attendance for 2006 shot back up to 50,580. Now that's a rebound that took the total attendances to an even higher level thatboth 2005 and 2004. By contrast, the relatively smaller increase this year over last year is still less than the total for 2010.
Lastly, I've double checked the numbers but do not claim this spreadsheet is error-free. Corrections, including that to do with my reasoning, welcome. I do not claim to be perfect but I am good-looking which more than compensates.
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steve2
Addendum: I appear to have missed the fact that the Watchtower does not follow literally follow the Jewish calendar in the memorial so appear to have got the days of the week wrong - however all numbers are correct. I am presently checking out the days of the week for the memorials over the 12 year span. Apologies for causing any confusion - my error!
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Phizzy
Thank you Steve for your work on this. It is difficult with such bare figures to determine atrend, if indeed there is one, but extra info such as the day of the week will be useful.
The WT gets the day wrong nearly every year, for a variety of reasons, the main one being that they are bone-heads.
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slimboyfat
I wonder if they'll reach the 20 million mark this year or next year.
That makes more JWs than there are Jews.
Maybe they'll overtake Anglicans soon too, who number 85 million nominal members worldwide.
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TheOldHippie
Easter, my friends. The number always fluctuates according to what day in Easter it is held. If on one of the public holidays, then there are "cousins" (as apposed to "brothers and sisters"), studies etc. who are off on holiday, whereas if it is held in the beginning of the week for example, people are "in town" and hence the attendance is higher.
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steve2
The day upon which the memorial is held clearly matters. That said, the consistent increase in attendance year-by-year - even following a decrease one year - is not now a given. The US 2013 total attendance lags behind the 2010 total attendance. Surely that is not due to the day(s) the memorials have been held over successive years?
Speaking of the day upon which the memorial is held, does any know the "formula" the Watchtower uses - I mistakenly thought they simply used the Jewish calendar but evidently they don't. Their take on when Nisan 14 falls differs from the Jewish calendar.
Where's Blondie when I need her?
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besty
Have global (or USA) memorial attendances ever declined 2 years in a row?