IPCC Climate Change Report........

by cantleave 153 Replies latest social current

  • Berengaria
    Berengaria

    Yep, already read that. Here's the whole article.

    PITTSBURGH (AP) — The Environmental Protection Agency has dramatically lowered its estimate of how much of a potent heat-trapping gas leaks during natural gas production, in a shift with major implications for a debate that has divided environmentalists: Does the recent boom in fracking help or hurt the fight against climate change?

    Oil and gas drilling companies had pushed for the change, but there have been differing scientific estimates of the amount of methane that leaks from wells, pipelines and other facilities during production and delivery. Methane is the main component of natural gas.

    The new EPA data is "kind of an earthquake" in the debate over drilling, said Michael Shellenberger, the president of the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental group based in Oakland, Calif. "This is great news for anybody concerned about the climate and strong proof that existing technologies can be deployed to reduce methane leaks."

    The scope of the EPA's revision was vast. In a mid-April report on greenhouse emissions, the agency now says that tighter pollution controls instituted by the industry resulted in an average annual decrease of 41.6 million metric tons of methane emissions from 1990 through 2010, or more than 850 million metric tons overall. That's about a 20 percent reduction from previous estimates. The agency converts the methane emissions into their equivalent in carbon dioxide, following standard scientific practice.

    The EPA revisions came even though natural gas production has grown by nearly 40 percent since 1990. The industry has boomed in recent years, thanks to a stunning expansion of drilling in previously untapped areas because of the use of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which injects sand, water and chemicals to break apart rock and free the gas inside.

    Experts on both sides of the debate say the leaks can be controlled by fixes such as better gaskets, maintenance and monitoring. Such fixes are also thought to be cost-effective, since the industry ends up with more product to sell.

    "That is money going up into the air," said Roger Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado, adding he isn't surprised the EPA's new data show more widespread use of pollution control equipment. Pielke noted that the success of the pollution controls also means that the industry "probably can go further" in reducing leaks.

    Representatives of the oil and gas industry said the EPA revisions show emissions from the fracking boom can be managed.

    "The methane 'leak' claim just got a lot more difficult for opponents" of natural gas, noted Steve Everley, with Energy In Depth, an industry-funded group.

    In a separate blog post, Everley predicted future reductions, too.

    "As technologies continue to improve, it's hard to imagine those methane numbers going anywhere but down as we eagerly await the next installment of this EPA report," Everley wrote.

    One leading environmentalist argued the EPA revisions don't change the bigger picture.

    "We need a dramatic shift off carbon-based fuel: coal, oil and also gas," Bill McKibbern, the founder of 350.org, wrote in an email to The Associated Press. "Natural gas provides at best a kind of fad diet, where a dangerously overweight patient loses a few pounds and then their weight stabilizes; instead, we need at this point a crash diet, difficult to do" but needed to limit the damage from climate change.

    The EPA said it made the changes based on expert reviews and new data from several sources, including a report funded by the oil and gas industry. But the estimates aren't based on independent field tests of actual emissions, and some scientists said that's a problem.

    Robert Howarth, a Cornell University professor of ecology who led a 2011 methane leak study that is widely cited by critics of fracking, wrote in an email that "time will tell where the truth lies in all this, but I think EPA is wrong."

    Howarth said other federal climate scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have published recent studies documenting massive methane leaks from natural gas operations in Colorado and other Western states.

    Howarth wrote that the EPA seems "to be ignoring the published NOAA data in their latest efforts, and the bias on industry only pushing estimates downward — never up — is quite real. EPA badly needs a counter-acting force, such as outside independent review of their process."

    The issue of methane leaks has caused a major split between environmental groups.

    Since power plants that burn natural gas emit about half the amount of the greenhouse gases as coal-fired power, some say that the gas drilling boom has helped the U.S. become the only major industrialized country to significantly reduce greenhouse emissions. But others believe the methane leaks negate any benefits over coal, since methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas.

    The new EPA figures still show natural gas operations as the leading source of methane emissions in the U.S., at about 145 million metric tons in 2011. The next biggest source was enteric fermentation, scientific jargon for belches from cows and other animals, at 137 million metric tons. Landfills were the third-biggest source, at 103 million metric tons.

    But the EPA estimates that all the sources of methane combined still account for only 9 percent of greenhouse gases, even taking into account methane's more potent heat-trapping.

    The EPA said it is still seeking more data and feedback on the issue of methane leaks, so the report may change again in the future.

    The EPA revisions have international implications, too. The agency says the new report, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, was submitted to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change by an April 15 deadline.

  • Glander
    Glander

    "...The EPA revisions came even though natural gas production has grown by nearly 40 percent since 1990. The industry has boomed in recent years, thanks to a stunning expansion of drilling in previously untapped areas because of the use of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which injects sand, water and chemicals to break apart rock and free the gas inside...

    Experts on both sides of the debate say the leaks can be controlled by fixes such as better gaskets, maintenance and monitoring. Such fixes are also thought to be cost-effective, since the industry ends up with more product to sell..."

    So, what's your point?

    Mine is unchanged. The EPA has been forced to admit that they were talking through their ass about methane emissions.

    Huffington Post has an article on the same EPA retreat.

    PS This has been a broadly released news item. Several sources have covered it. But you ask me for a link?

    Maybe less time playing Grand Theft Auto and more time reading the net and newspapers, big mouth.

  • Berengaria
    Berengaria
    So, what's your point?
    Mine is unchanged. The EPA has been forced to admit that they were talking through their ass about methane emissions.
    Huffington Post has an article on the same EPA retreat.
    PS This has been a broadly released news item. Several sources have covered it. But you ask me for a link?
    Maybe less time playing Grand Theft Auto and more time reading the net and newspapers, big mouth.

    Hey, just because you have comprehension issues is no reason for insults.

  • adamah
    adamah

    Glanders said-

    The EPA has recently had to back off a totally false claim that fraking caused a huge release of methane. They only exaggerated by 3000%.

    The article said-

    "That’s about a 20 percent reduction from previous estimates."

    Let's hope the climatologists pay more attention to little details like understanding how to express quantities in % format.

    Adam

  • Glander
    Glander

    Methane is a green-house gas source that is actually more potent than CO2.

    But it also dissapates far faster in the atmosphere and was seized on mistakenly by the EPA as a far greater global-warming contributor than what many have known to be the case all along.

    A methane leaks study based on real measurements released just this week by the University of Texas and the Environmental Defense Fund, among others, shows that methane emissions from Nat Gas operations are not only generally LOWER than the EPA has been estimating, but in the key category of well completions by hydraulic fracturing those estimates may be more tha 30 times, or 3000% too high.

    comprende, hamada?

    Key words - University of Texas - Environmental Defense Fund. methane emissions. Do your own homework.

  • tootired2care
    tootired2care
    A follow-up study by the Skeptical Science team of over 12,000 peer-reviewed abstracts on the subjects of 'global warming' and 'global climate change' published between 1991 and 2011 found that of the papers taking a position on the cause of global warming, over 97% agreed that humans are causing it ( Cook 2013 ). The scientific authors of the papers were also contacted and asked to rate their own papers, and again over 97% whose papers took a position on the cause said humans are causing global warming.

    You didn't mention that 66.4% of those 12,000 papers considered in the Cook study made no assertion that warming is AGW caused. So let's add it up, 73 scientists out of 10,000, and 32.6 percent of 12,000 published papers on global warming constitute a 97% global consensus on AGW. The reality is your 97% figure is a myth.

  • besty
    besty
    You didn't mention that 66.4% of those 12,000 papers considered in the Cook study made no assertion that warming is AGW caused.

    Where is the peer-reviewed paper showing a different figure for climate change consensus? Link please.

    Some things are taken as a fact and don't need endless repeating.

    100% of recent papers didn't mention the fact that gravity makes things fall down and the fact that the sun is in the middle of the solar sysytem.

    I encourage anyone interested in the methodology of the Cook 2011 paper on the 97% consensus to read it for themselves - don't rely on me or anyone else to predigest the facts for you. (Be wary when no other contradictory evidence is presented)

    http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/article

  • besty
    besty

    @SBF

    You mentioned disconfirmatory evidence and referred to a Der Spiegel article purporting to show that global temperatures had not risen in accordance with IPCC predictions.

    What is the other side of the story? Lets look at IPCC AR5 to see what they say about their own predictions.

    IPCC AR5 Figure 1.4. Solid lines and squares represent measured average global surface temperature changes by NASA (blue), NOAA (yellow), and the UK Hadley Centre (green). The colored shading shows the projected range of surface warming in the IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR; yellow), Second (SAR; green), Third (TAR; blue), and Fourth (AR4; red).

    Since 1990, global surface temperatures have warmed at a rate of about 0.15°C per decade, within the range of model projections of about 0.10 to 0.35°C per decade. As the IPCC notes,

    "global climate models generally simulate global temperatures that compare well with observations over climate timescales ... The 1990–2012 data have been shown to be consistent with the [1990 IPCC report] projections, and not consistent with zero trend from 1990 ... the trend in globally-averaged surface temperatures falls within the range of the previous IPCC projections."

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/oct/01/ipcc-global-warming-projections-accurate

    I'd like your thoughts on the Guardian article, particularly as it relates to the errors in the Der Spiegel article you cited.

  • tootired2care
    tootired2care

    Cleaner air and water are always a good thing, and I believe reasonable measures to stop or mitigate unneccessary pollution is a no brainer for better quality of life for us and the animals, I think we can all hopefully agree there.

    I havn't seen ice core samples mentioned on here yet so apologies if it has; now, this doesn't discount the data that has been collected over the last dozen decades coorborating that the earth is warming. For me though, what these ice core data graphs really provide is a realistic perspective on just how tumultuous and cyclical the earth has proven to be in terms of surface temperature, c02 and ice ages. Projecting from data availiable, the reality is there will eventually be another ice age, whether any human exists on this planet or not. For this reason, taking an extremist or religiously apocolyptical position over this issue doesn't make much sense, and I don't understand how folks can argue that altering our activities is going to somehow change this destiny. No doubt we will have scientific breakthoughts in energy and propulsion systems that will enable us to survive in such harse conditions or colonize another planet and survive the next ice age. With population explosion, and the next ice age, we probably will not have a choice.

  • besty
    besty

    @tt2c

    I havn't seen ice core samples mentioned on here yet

    Yep - change the subject without answering my question on the point you just raised.

    Classy.

    Let me remind you:

    Where is the peer-reviewed paper showing a different figure for climate change consensus? Link please.

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