besty what number does your approach ultimately produce?
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou 739 Replies latest watchtower medical
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Marvin Shilmer
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“The generally accepted death rate in New Zealand from anemia is 0.002/1000. Google it.
“Based on the Beliaev study, I believe that JW's have a 10x death rate from anemia at 0.02/1000
“You are happy to propose that JW's have a 130x death rate from anemia at 0.26/1000”
Besty,
What I’ve proposed is not a matter of whether I’m happy or unhappy, or what makes me happy or unhappy. I’m only concerned with what verifiable information can tell me.
I don’t have a means to Google the matched comparison sampled in the Beliaev study so you’re asking me to compared relevantly dissimilar items of information. Mortality due to anemia is not mortality due to the match comparison data set of anemia patients in the Beliaev study. But the Beliaev study does give us a hard number of actual deaths among a known sample set of JWs.
You want me to ignore the actual hard number of deaths documented in the Beliaev study.
You want me to ignore how that hard number compares with the number of JWs in New Zealand.
I can’t do either of the above. To do so would be irresponsible.
The Beliaev study gives us hard numbers saying over a 10-year period we have 33 statistical deaths among a community that averaged 12,700 members annually over the same 10-year period. Hence we have 3.3 deaths per year for 12,700 individuals per year. That’s a ratio of 3848-to-1 annually. These are the hard numbers. These numbers are not a rate. They are hard.
As for the 10x death rate, I doubt JWs have a 10x death rate compared to all patients with anemia. The 10x mortality has to do with one thing and one thing only: the matched comparison of patients in the Beliaev study suffering severe anemia. The study was not designed to document and examine overall mortality between JWs and non-JWs in New Zealand of anemia patients.
Regardless of the study’s design, we still have those two pesky hard numbers that you want me to ignore, and that you refuse to answer for. One of deaths over and beyond the norm suffered by JWs refusing blood, and one of the number of JWs in New Zealand.
Again, besty:
In year 1998 there were 5,544,059 JWs. You do the math and tell readers what a ratio of 3848-to-1 gives us for the year 1998 alone.
Can you do that, and put this hard number in writing for readers to watch your math?
Marvin Shilmer
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steve2
Marvin you take a huge leap: You assume that the ratio of JWs with blood disorders to JWs without blood disorders is the same from country to country. There are no grounds for assuming that hemophilia, for example, exhibits itself among JWs a similar level from country to country. Why should it?
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adamah
Marvin said-
There are persons who care. For one, I care. I think you care too. I don’t think either of us is alone. I think close family and friends of JWs also care. I also think medical ethicists care. I think insurance providers care. I think lots of people care, and I think a lot more will care the more this dangerous doctrine is exposed for the mortality it causes. And, before I forget, in this discussion we’ve not even touched the extensive morbidity caused by this horrible doctrinal position.
Yeah, we get it: everybody cares soooo much, yet the practice continues. Why?
Constitutionally-protected reedom of religion apparently covers a multitude of sins, including wrongful death and manslaughter (at least, in adults).
Under the Constitution of most lands, people are allowed the right to determine what happens to their own bodies, for ANY REASON, EVEN IF physicians have overwhelming reams of evidence on their side. It's an individual right to commit suicide, if they have some group to support their cockamamie beliefs, and as Beliaev's study showed, EVEN IF it's costly to society.
Therefore, rather than expecting the general public to give a hoot is a bit of a stretch, esp since people watch Jay Leno's monologues making fun of JWs for their doorbell ringing and many think, "Good riddance!" with one less doorbell to answer on a Saturday morning.
Outlaw posted a picture of the Jim Jones massacre, and unless you knew someone personally who was in the group, you likely looked at the photo and thought, "What happened there?", with no more than a prurient interest and determining what YOU had to do to avoid ending up in such a gruesome group photo (where the overly-simplistic answer is, "don't join a cult").
Appealing to the public is not likely a fruitful strategy, since the bottom line is that INDIVIDUALS have to value their own lives in order to decide to save themselves and their loved ones: no one can (or should) make that decision for them.
We need to appeal to them directly, appealing to THEIR personal best interests, since expecting public outrage over the issue is a losing strategy, eg to expect some movement on the legislative front isn't going to happen for MANY different reasons (for one, what would you even propose? A law? That would require trampling on EVERYONE'S individual rights, which is something MOST people would oppose).
Simon said- “Arguing over 5000, 50,000 or 500,000 is a waste of time. We need to think like politicians and make issues into things the electorate care about through how things affect them.”
Marvin said-
It’s no waste of time to find means and methods to draw a better circle around what Watchtower’s blood doctrine is responsible for.
The New Zealand data set studied by Beliaev and colleagues finally provides a means to examine a defined sample set of JWs with a verifiable population of victims due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine. This is something that deserves shouting from the proverbial roof top.
The impact of Beliaev's study seems far-more powerful as it stands by looking at the cost-effectiveness and avoidance of adverse outcomes, rather than trying to extrapolate the data to guesstimate a Worldwide figure. Heck, even that press review article I linked to contained points that would serve as a more-powerful and convincing indictment and basis for an article than getting into the statistical quandry and mess of manufactured numbers (and as Simon pointed out, it wouldn't matter to the public if it were 500,000 deaths since the policy started, since it likely only means less-crowded roads on the daily commute).
Steve said-
For every case in which we claim a JW has died as a consequence of blood refusal, the Watchtower can produce cases in which the JW survived bloodless procedures or, more compelling from the organization's point of view, died even though they received a blood transfusion (presumably against their will).
Yeah, well I wouldn't go THAT far, as that would be buying into the ignorant JW blind stance that blood transfusions kill. That's utter BS, since blood transfusions have saved countless lives since their introduction, and the science only improves, eg concerns for HIV transmission are a thing of the past (for 30 years), since methods have been developed for screening donors and more importantly, checking each donation and not allowing tainted blood to enter into the supply.
Of course, there may be some other unknown problem out there yet waiting to be discovered, but that's no excuse for inactivity on the issue TODAY. Blood transfusions SAVE LIVES.
Outlaw said-
Give 45 JWs a Blood Transfusion..Save $$$$..
As you well know, the public sees government funds as funny money, where no one seems to be minding the bank. That's the problem with that approach. Unfortunately, most people don't put two and two together, and figure the money will somehow magically fall out of the sky (as our current debt crisis shows, with everyone quibbling over raising the debt ceiling, while ignoring ways to decrease spending).
Simon said-
Its like the shunning issue ... a curiosity to watch on TV about the Amish but nothing that people will do anything about. Because it doesn't affect them. That is sadly the society we live in.
Yup, and it's not really a new thing, either: people ALWAYS have concerned themselves more with their personal interests, which if you think about it, is the ONLY way it SHOULD be, since no one cares about me more than me, and you more than you do. The whole "love your fellow man" Christian construct is faux since it's overdone, but it's actually an extension of acting in one's own best interests, since many people can recognize that what's in the common interest is generally also good for the individual's interest, including themselves.
Adam
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Simon
About 900 witnesses die every year from want of a blood transfusion according to this: http://www.krev.info/library/pocetumrti.pdf
I think their '1% increased chance of dying' holds if no regular patients deaths are due to or contributed by lack of blood during those procedures. It sounds like the study was based on 16 reports - again, if this is patients then the number is very low and dangerous to extrapolate from.
The Beliaev study gives us hard numbers saying over a 10-year period we have 33 statistical deaths among a community that averaged 12,700 members annually over the same 10-year period. Hence we have 3.3 deaths per year for 12,700 individuals per year. That’s a ratio of 3848-to-1 annually. These are the hard numbers. These numbers are not a rate. They are hard.
Sorry, I thought it was 19 deaths over a 10 year period or 1.9 people per year. Where did 33 come from? If the numbers don't work you can't just double them!
But yes, numbers can be hard. I hate math too ...
As for the 10x death rate, I doubt JWs have a 10x death rate compared to all patients with anemia. The 10x mortality has to do with one thing and one thing only: the matched comparison of patients in the Beliaev study suffering severe anemia. The study was not designed to document and examine overall mortality between JWs and non-JWs in New Zealand of anemia patients.
But if I follow besty correctly, you seem to be claiming contrary to this - that its actually 130x the rate?
Regardless of the study’s design, we still have those two pesky hard numbers that you want me to ignore, and that you refuse to answer for. One of deaths over and beyond the norm suffered by JWs refusing blood, and one of the number of JWs in New Zealand.
The numbers are not 'pesky' no one doubts that 19 out of 103 people died over a 10 year period. They just only apply to that one study and can't necessarilly be applied to a wider population because there are reasons why they may not be a representative sample of the entire population.
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Simon
I agree with the sentiment Adam.
Ultimately, America is never going to intervene when it comes to anything todo with religious freedom because the faithful part-run the country and think everyone is out to undermine them. Heck, they can't even agree to stop giving assault rifles to people likely to shoot classrooms full of kids, so who's going to care about a couple of hundred fundies who want to poison themselves, rip their feeding tubes out, fly planes into towers or whatever? It will likely have more success in Europe but then it's back to being such a minority religion with so few people affected that there is always going to be something more important to focus on instead.
Like the Jones Town massacre, no one really cares beyond watching the news or documentary, muttering something about "nutters" and changing channels to watch the next episode of "Amazing Race of Celebrity Apprentice Dancers Singing on Ice in the Jungle ... to the Death".
Reminds me of "Black Diamond Bay" by Bob Dylan. It paints a picture of all these people's lives and tragedy unfolding and then it zooms out to a guy sat on the sofa watching the news:
I was sittin’ home alone one night in L.A.
Watchin’ old Cronkite on the seven o’clock news
It seems there was an earthquake that
Left nothin’ but a Panama hat
And a pair of old Greek shoes
Didn’t seem like much was happenin’,
So I turned it off and went to grab another beer
Seems like every time you turn around
There’s another hard-luck story that you’re gonna hear
And there’s really nothin’ anyone can say
And I never did plan to go anyway
To Black Diamond Bay http://www.bobdylan.com/ca/node/26035#ixzz2hv6HBHzEAnd that is what it unfortunately comes down to. People care about them and theirs, others? not so much ...
The trouble with trying to stop idiots and religious indoctrinatred belief is that you don't just have to protect people from someone else, you have to protect them from themselves.
I don't think mankind has figured that one out yet.
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adamah
Tim Hooper said-
About 900 witnesses die every year from want of a blood transfusion according to this: http://www.krev.info/library/pocetumrti.pdf
I looked at that site, and they also make some of the typical questionable assumptions to arrive at their number, and trying to claim any figure as more than a wild-arse estimate verges on arguing how many angels can dance on a pin.
Simon said-
The trouble with trying to stop idiots and religious indoctrinatred belief is that you don't just have to protect people from someone else, you have to protect them from themselves. I don't think mankind has figured that one out yet.
Yup, and everyone has to come to that conclusion for themselves.
But to approach the issue as if expecting anyone to care with a dramatic headline is likely the same type of delusional thinking that leads a JW to believe that it's a good idea to die on cue from the GB.
Adam
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Simon
how many angels can dance on a pin
That one depends if I'm holding the pin and have a Winchester with me.
Am I watching too much Supernatural? maybe ...
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steve2
Yeah, well I wouldn't go THAT far, as that would be buying into the ignorant JW blind stance that blood transfusions kill. That's utter BS, since blood transfusions have saved countless lives since their introduction, and the science only improves, eg concerns for HIV transmission are a thing of the past (for 30 years), since methods have been developed for screening donors and more importantly, checking each donation and not allowing tainted blood to enter into the supply.
Of course, there may be some other unknown problem out there yet waiting to be discovered, but that's no excuse for inactivity on the issue TODAY. Blood transfusions SAVE LIVES.
I totally agree with you Adam - my "reasoning" - if you can call it that - was based on a typical Watchtower response - which has some face validity.
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Band on the Run
If you ask the person on the street about JWs, they prob. don't give a damn. The blood issue is too bad. The government shut down, Syria, and the Bruce Jenner/Kris Jenner split on more important.
When you exaggerate, and some people here love to exaggerate, you negate your point. Extreme shunning - no way. Sexual abuse - not the best policy as far as religion goes but far from the worse. If I were still a Witness, I would care b/c my religion should measure up. I don't want a dinky religion.
What is the grand solution to blood? Adults should be free to exercise their religious rights. The WT has never grabbed an IV out of the arm of someone receiving a blood transfusion. Responsibility must be with the individual. We are not China or North Korea. Individual rights are safeguarded.
The best way to stop the blood doctrine is to change it from within or convince people that the Witnesses are too high control a group for practical reasons. It would be a dictatorship if individuals could not exercise their First Amednment rights. It is not the place of government to make these decisions. Hence, the need for public education. When outsiders read extreme statements, they dismiss all of the argument made. Zealots of any kind make me uncomfortable.