250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou 739 Replies latest watchtower medical

  • besty
    besty

    I still don't see why a comparison with non-JW death rates is necessary. (Because it is already implied in the initial statistic)

    Correct.

    The study indicates 10x more anemic JWs will die than anemic non-JW's.

    But to verify Marvins extrapolated 0.26/1000 anemic JW death rate figure I decided to cross-check against primary sources which reveal the death rate from anemia in NZ to be 0.2/100,000

    This new fact indicates a 130x risk factor if Marvins 0.26/1000 extrapolated figure is correct. The problem is that extrapolated figure is based on the original study, which indicates a 10x risk factor.

    Without the new primary evidence (NZ anemia death rates) I introduced there is no way of independently checking the extrapolated figures.

    Am I missing something? Marvin's study indicates 10x risk and yet the figure he relies on is 130x risk compared to non-JW anemia death rate...yes/no?

    BTW the 130x gets him to 50k deaths - nowhere near the 250k estimate yet...

  • Vidiot
    Vidiot

    slimboyfat - "Watchtower is probably hoping non-blood medical solutions will replace blood entirely and let them off the hook."

    I came to that conclusion long before I even started fading.

  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat

    Is my calculation correct, if we assume original figure of 19 unnecessary JW deaths in New Zealand over a decade is correct?

    Since the comparison came from the academic study itself I didn't think it needed independent verification. But if you have done that all well and good.

    I can't even begin to follow Marvin's reasoning. When someone thinks New Zealand being an island makes a difference I am turned off as far as trying to follow the rest of the logic. Incidentally New Zealand is not an island, it comprises a number of islands, just to complicate matters. Not that it makes the slightest bit of difference of course.

    Simon asked whether the figure is realiable because some of the patients had cancer and would have died anyway. But I've got news for Simon - we're all going to die at some point. The question is whether refusal of blood hastens death: whether that be by a matter of weeks, years or decades, I think it still counts. That's subjective of course. As are many things about the statistic. Who can truly say who would live or die without a certain treatment? I don't have much confidence in it to be honest. But it's all we have to go on I suppose. Just don't make the evidence carry more weight than it can reasonably bear.

  • besty
    besty

    Something is not right with Marvins extrapolation.

    He says:

    ● Over a 10 year period there were 19 Witnesses who died that shouldn’t have. That’s 1.9 per year.

    ● Over the same 10 year period the number of Witnesses in New Zealand averaged 12,700. 1.9 deaths per year is .015% of the Witness population

    .015% is 15/100,000 expressed another way.

    That means that in this part of Marvis extrapolation NZ JW's with anemia are 75x more likely to die than non-JW's with the same condition, assuming you believe worldlifeexpectancy.com and its 0.2/100,000 figure.

    The risk factor has gone from 10x - primary evidence in the study - to 75x with some extrapolation and ends up at 130x with full extrapolation.

    Hmmm....

  • besty
    besty

    if we assume original figure of 19 unnecessary JW deaths in New Zealand over a decade is correct?

    that piece is fine.

    The study compares JW and non-JW outcomes for people already with anemia.

    It doesn't introduce the general population without anemia.

  • adamah
    adamah

    Cedars said-

    Personally I think it's unfortunate that a figure of 250,000 deaths has been put forward when it cannot be supported by any meaningful data. My approach to criticizing Watchtower is that they are giving us a treasure trove of material already without any need to resort to making stuff up, and damaging our argument in the process.

    Problem with some making wild-ass claims is that it damages the CREDIBILITY of ALL ex-JWs, not just the argument of the one making the claim (or just only their credibility).

    Like it or not, all critics of the WTBTS are in this dog-fight together, i.e. if a random JW reads something that's literally incredible, it's only going to give them an excuse to dismiss ALL of our efforts (not that it takes much indication of errors for them to reach a conclusion that they're already primed to reach, dependng on their individual circumstances). So JWfacts is tied to your efforts, and is tied to my efforts, etc, since little excuse is needed to dismiss all sites with the broad brush the GB paints so-called "apostates" with: bitter ex-JWs who are willing to lie and deceive about the "Truth".

    Marvin's research is excellent and I have quoted it on JWsurvey with a link so that people can check out the data for themselves. Even if the figure is lower than 50,000, let's say more in the region of slimboyfat's 29,000, that is still a grotesque bodycount for any cult to lay claim to. You could imagine the international uproar if 29,000 were to simultaneously die tomorrow in a cult suicide pact. But spread the carnage over many decades and nobody bats an eyelid. This information NEEDS exposure, and we shouldn't be ashamed of challenging the public to think on this issue.

    Even if the # of deaths is significantly lower, that's no less true. Why risk sacrificing one's credibility in a futile effort to raise awareness via exaggeration and hyperbole, misleading the public?

    With all that said, I'm not sure the tone of this thread sits right with me. In the course of writing for JWsurvey I have made a fair number of mistakes requiring corrections or retractions, and if each of those mistakes had been gleefully leapt upon as subjects of debate on JWN as has happened here, it would have been soul destroying. Problems like this could be sorted out with a simple email, or twitter/facebook personal message, politely saying, "I noticed you gave this information, where did you get it from? Would you mind deleting the tweet/thread/comment if it is incorrect?"

    Would you prefer a private reproof, then, maybe being taken into the back room for counseling?

    Instead, all too often the nuclear option of launching a JWN discussion and naming names is pursued first.

    "The nuclear option"? Hyperbolize much?

    The reason(s) should be clear:

    A public discussion keeps everyone on the up-and-up, with no "secrets". But even more importantly, it actually attracts those talented people who can contribute their expertise and assist with the fact-checking (like Simon, or Besty, who's no stranger to analyzing stats and claims), relying on the power of the collective mind. By discussing the issue, it actually gets more people involved in the effort, and builds solidarity of the group.

    But even more importantly, a public discussion PUBLICIZES the issue amongst the intended target audience: JWs who may be lurking.

    If you believe the general public gives a hoot about even 2.5 mil deaths (!) occurring over a 50 yr period due to the odd crackpot beliefs of a Christian cult, I suspect you're overlooking the assumption under which most humans operate: they ask themselves, "what is the harm in it for me if these people decide to become martyrs"? They assume less traffic on their commute, or one less doorbell to answer on a Saturday morning. Most educated non-JWs would be more likely to contribute funds dedicated to building a nice Darwin Awards Memorial with the names of these "JW martyrs" carved in stone, seeing that freedom of religious worship apparently includes the right to die from a preventable death.

    Humans generally operate in their self-interests, alone, and that is exactly WHY the public ALSO hates those who'd decieve them; they too are looking for excuses to alleviate any guilt they may experience for focusing only on themselves, thus back-firing on the ones who'd deceive them (who are so blinded to that fact, usually so consumed in their Don Quixotish "cause" as to recognize that they're not exactly "unbiased", and are hence willing to harbor tendencies to stretch claims to support "their" agenda).

    That's why the active JWs who may be lurking need to SEE FOR THEMSELVES that the ONLY people who are harmed by refusing a blood transfusion is THEMSELVES and their loved ones, as they're willing to die on cue to obey orders given from their GB.

    The Ex-JW community's infighting and readiness to point fingers, which I think is very much a product of our shared cult experience, is its achilles heel - and something of which I am frankly ashamed. Solidarity and kinship is not a commodity that is as abundant as it should be for a group taking on an adversary as wily and united as the Watchtower.

    I'm assuming that you're not familiar with how the World operates outside of JW Land, then: this IS not "infighting" or "readiness to point fingers" as you say, but a discussion that tries to determine "truths", whether the topic of discussion is global climate change, Atwill's recent thesis, or the harm of JW blood policy.

    To the contrary, what are the groups that discourage and/or prohibit in-fighting and don't allow free and open discussions, instead insisting on presenting the appearance of harmonous agreement, spoken in chorus? THAT kind of policy is lauded by the group that's claimed to be despised: WTBTS. Are you sure you're mentally out?

    Adam

  • Simon
    Simon

    Ok, a couple of points:

    First, this notion that we somehow have to appear 'united' and consistent with no dissention. We don't. That's holdover cult thinking. By being willing to criticise and correct false information we gain credibility as a group and don't look so much like a bunch of fanatics with a grudge. If the WTS is wrong on something we tell the world. If someone else makes a false claim about them we don't do any different. It makes us stronger, it makes us better, it reinforces our credibility and legitimises the criticism we do make. It makes sure the criticism of the WTS being given is stong and can stand up to scrutiny.

    Part of leaving is gaining an individual voice and the right to speak up when you see things that are wrong. Hey, we can all be wrong, that is why discussion is good - we can all learn by sharing ideas and information. We have no elites that are beyond question. We appreciate the work and study that people do but the work should stand on its merrits.

    Second, there are simpler explanations as to why the numbers are too high for reasonable common sense based on the study. It quite possibly a bad study.

    Medical staff can never say that one treatment does or does not result in death. It's all probabilities and chances. So how do they decide on those numbers? How do they determine that it was 'no blood transfusion' as the cause of death? Medical people will never say that "this treatment will save you" just as they won't say "not having it will kill you". That's what they say on TV, not in real life. In reality they talk about improving chances. It's a leap to then get to a hard number and label the cause.

    19 out of 103 people over a 10 year period is insignificant. Whether it was 19 or 10 could just be chance and just a few changes in patient outcome either way (for either group) can have a dramatic effect on the figures when you attempt to extrapolate from such a tiny group (which is precisely why you shouldn't!). I worked at a pharmaceutical company on systems dealing with clinical trials and seriously, that would not cut it by any stretch.

    Why were 2 JWs undergoing palliative care included? (yes, "we're all going to die" but palliative care implies 'already on the way out and going to die very very soon'). Were other patients in the non JW group like that? Were all the JW and non JWs equally aged or similarly ill? What were the criteria for being in or out of the study? I do hope there was more thought put to it than simply "JW / won't take blood ... congratulations, you're in the study !".

    The study was of anemia patients - hard to imagine a group that would benefit more from blood transfusion than any other which again will amplify the risk / benefits of blood transfusion and can't then be applied to a wider population or to other diseases or conditions.

    Finally, who wrote the article? Well, it was the "International Society of Blood Transfusions". Are they unbiased? Was the study cherry picking data? Who knows ... but when I see a climate change 'study' written by an Oil and Gas company I tend to not be quite so dogmatic about it's findings. Credible studies are always by independent researchers with no vested interest in the outcome other than the advancement of knowledge.

    I know that probably goes against Marvin's belief that we should all worship anyone who flashes their "accedemic" membership badge but they are just people like any other and groups have a habit of pushing agendas.

    So the study probably makes the numbers higher than they really are. The ~20k numbers people have come to above are more mathamatically consistent with the study but for the reasons I've given I think even those are probably quite a lot higher than the reality which is likely single digit thousands at 'best' (I know, poor word - worse?).

    This number fits with less tangible evidence such as the number of press reports, number of cases that we each know about (I'm guessing the same 2 or 3 cases that got publicity) plus a few others that didn't. All from a small religious group of people that tend to be quite safe and conservative lifestyle wise (reducing risk) and have only become really more numerous in the last few years when avaiability of alternatives treatments will also reduce the mortality rate.

    These thousands of deaths are tragic and enough to nail to the WTSs wall. Credible numbers are more likely to attract legal attention than fanciful tabloid headline numbers that are quickly and easily debunked.

  • Simon
    Simon

    snap!

    (adamah posted some of the same things I was thinking while I was typing mine)

  • cedars
    cedars

    Thanks adamah

    Throughout your ramblings I missed the part where you explained how publicizing a grievance with an individual on an internet forum is preferable to sending that person an email, or in this case a private message on Twitter. If the purpose of this thread is to deride and make a public example of someone, assuming that's your thing, then it's mission accomplished. If, however, the original poster sees a misleading tweet that he wants rectified to prevent any lurkers being misled, the most effective way to do this is go to the source and get the tweet deleted, which is easily done.

    Even with this avenue exhausted, I fail to see how this thread is productive or helpful apart from indulging bored individuals who like there to be no "secrets" (as you put it) regarding matters that don't really concern them. There are any number of websites, facebook posts or tweets by Ex-JWs that give wrong or misleading information about Watchtower or misrepresent apostates in some way. Do each of these also deserve a name-and-shame exposé thread? Or does the answer perhaps lie in letting lurkers use their brains and reach their own conclusions about what is credible and what isn't?

    Sadly, all too many in this community much prefer moaning about Ex-JWs they have a gripe with than meaningfully engaging the true enemy, Watchtower - who no doubt laughs and rubs their hands at our internal bickering and finger-pointing. And yes, that's an achilles heel. If you don't see that, then you're at a disadvantage.

    That said, it's encouraging to see that the mathematic skills of besty and slimboyfat have been engaged. It would be great if they could assist Marvin in coming up with a meaningful extrapolation, assuming this is possible from the New Zealand data alone. I would try to help myself, but maths is not my strong suit.

    Cedars

  • cedars
    cedars

    Simon

    First, this notion that we somehow have to appear 'united' and consistent with no dissention. We don't. That's holdover cult thinking. By being willing to criticise and correct false information we gain credibility as a group

    You misunderstand me.

    I was pointing out that this thread seems intended first-and-foremost to criticize rather than to correct, or rectify. Names are named and fingers are pointed. No effort seems to have been made to get the misleading tweet deleted, which is easily done.

    I don't think leaping to criticism without even attempting rectification is a laudible or beneficial quality for what I understand to be the shared goals of the Ex-JW community.

    Cedars

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