2013 Report - difference in av. pubs compared to % of baptisms

by likeabird 31 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  likeabird

  I just took the first page of the 2013 Report and added two new columns to look at alternative ways of calculating the 'increase'

  First column: 2013 Av. Pubs minus 2012 Av. Pubs

  Second column: % of increase if only baptisms were counted*

  (*Not sure if my calculations were correct here, but calculated the % of baptisms in relation to the 2012 Av. Pubs to see what increase that would make)

  I added a red dot next to each number in the first column that was lower than the number of baptisms. The difference in numbers is quite staggering.

  Please add your comments, especially as calculating percentages is not my strong point. Let me know if you would like to see the other pages too, and I will do them too.
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  TheOldHippie

  You cannot use number of baptisms to calculate increase, because publishers are exactly that - publishers - before they are baptised. Baptism candidates come from the ranks of publishers, and added to that, some start as publishers and are baptised within the same service year, whereas others "cross the year border".

  Additionally, nobody when doing these calculations seem to bother about the fact that around 1 % of a population die during a year. Hence, a 0 % growth "in reality" is a 1 % growth because the 1 % that have died have been substituted. a 3 % growth therefore "in reality" is a 4 % growth.
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  mariu

  You cannot use number of baptisms to calculate increase, because publishers are exactly that - publishers - before they are baptised. Baptism candidates come from the ranks of publishers, and added to that, some start as publishers and are baptised within the same service year, whereas others "cross the year border".

  Right. One way to reduce this uncertainty is to lump a couple of years together, e.g. look at ten-year periods instead. The other is to ignore it as an absolute number, but consider it a trend figure. It's still a useful indicator with the caveat that the average "unbaptised-to-baptised-publisher" timespan is unknown and may be changing too.

  Additionally, nobody when doing these calculations seem to bother about the fact that around 1 % of a population die during a year.

  Actually, most everywhere I see these kinds of calculations, mortality is factored in at the usual 1% guesstimate.
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  likeabird

  You cannot use number of baptisms to calculate increase, because publishers are exactly that - publishers - before they are baptised. Baptism candidates come from the ranks of publishers, and added to that, some start as publishers and are baptised within the same service year, whereas others "cross the year border".

  You're absolutely right, I completely forgot about that. Thank you for pointing it out.
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  Phizzy

  I reckon if you do a calculation over 10 years, factoring in the mortality rate, you should get something close to reality.

  It will show, when compared to the overall increase in JW's, that 1000's are leaving each year.
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  88JM

  I'll be updating my 25+ year spreadsheet today or tomorrow that will allow you to make such a calculation

  (yes, I know the download links are broken) http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/jw/friends/250532/1/25-YEARS-of-compiled-yearbook-statistics
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  likeabird

  That's an interesting idea Phizzy.

  I think that to do it over 10 years, it wouldn't be necessary to do all the "lands", but rather to focus on just a few.

  For example:

  10 English speaking countries with high publisher rates

  10 non-English speaking countries with high publisher rates

  10 industrialised countries

  10 countries with limited internet access yet high publisher rates

  Other suggestions for categories, and suggestions for countries to put in those categories are welcome.

  As well as mortality rate, I would also factor in migration rates. I think it should be based on average pubs and not peak pubs.

  Also, does anyone have pdf scans of annual reports for the past ten years?
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  likeabird

  88JM - when you do that, could you also post the link here? That would be awesome.
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  88JM

  Sure - will do.
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  likeabird

  Thanks a lot!