Russian Parliament Approves Military Action in the Crimea

by ABibleStudent 43 Replies latest social current

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  ABibleStudent

  DJS - What Obama should be doing with some plausible deniability is what I stated earlier: having conversations with potential insurgent groups for the purpose of arming them. Or suggest that such conversations are going to be held. Meet force with force and present the potential for the very last thing Vlad wants.

  What good has/will tough rhetoric by Obama and his administration and implimenting sanctions against Russia going to do to positively influence Putin? Talking tough and implimenting sanctions against Russia helps the US administration promote that they are doing something to American voters, and plays into Putin's plans. Putin is playing Chinese "Go" (i.e., whoever controls the most territory wins) and the US administration is playing tic-tac-toe (i.e., playing a stalemate game).

  If the US wants to influence Putin, it needs to learn how to get unbiased information to Russians to overcome the Russian government spinning information to unduely influence russians and russian speakers. Putin's source of power is the Russian Govenment's control of information to russian speakers both inside Russia as well as outside of Russia and his willingness to use IMHO unethical methods (i.e, vote rigging, exporting pro-russian protestors to the Crimea, lying, etc.).

  If the US wants to influence russians (and help other people governed by totalitarian governments) with minimal adverse impact for the US, then the US goverment needs to develop methods/equipment to increase information flow to Russian speakers that is not controlled by the US government.

  Something as simple as convincing the Ukrainian Government to pass iron-clad legislation that guarantees basic human rights, freedom of the press, promotes teaching both Russian and Ukrainian languages in schools, and minimizes corruption would throw a small wrench into Putin's plans. Other ideas would be to provide information about how to detect and report Russian "dirty tricks", as well as distributing hand-held video equipment with satellite uplink support to Youtube and photo-voltaic/hand-crank charging capability to Ukrainians in the Ukraine and Crimea.

  Putin is playing a waiting game, which is why I chose the "Go" analogy, until news organizations redirect their reporters to more sensationalistic news. Putin can do whatever he wants without the international news media present.

  Peace be with you and everyone, who you love,

  Robert
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  DJS

  Robert,

  Nice post. If our presidents spent more time proactively addressing social and cultural issues they likely wouldn't have to be reacting to crises and tempests in teapots so often.
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  Frazzled UBM

  Robert

  Russia believes it has legitimate claims to Crimea (and sustantial strategic interests in the Crimea) and the West will not be able to stop an annexation by stealth - the UN, the US and the Ukraine would be foolish to threaten or use force. Economic sanctions could easily backfire given the extent to which Europe is dependent on Russian oil and gas. This is a storm in a teacup and will seen as such when historians look back in years to come.

  Fraz
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  ABibleStudent

  Hi Frazzled UBM, IMHO helping the citizens of Crimea currently to achieve self-determination is a lost cause without U.N. monitors supervising voting.

  I'm more interested in helping non-Crimean Ukrainians to prosper and democraticly decide their future. If Putin succeeds in annexing Crimea from the Ukraine than within 5 years he will try to annex other parts of the Ukraine bit-by-bit. If Ukrainians start to prosper with less corruption and political turmoil, Russians will start to lose confidence in Putin because eventually more Russians would desire living like Ukrainians.

  Peace be with you and everyone, who you love,

  Robert
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  ABibleStudent

  Control information. Control people. A simple and effective formula.

  http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/07/world/europe/crimea-journalists-threatened/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

  Peace be with you and everyone, who you love,

  Robert
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  ABibleStudent

  ABibleStudent - Putin is playing a waiting game, which is why I chose the "Go" analogy, until news organizations redirect their reporters to more sensationalistic news. Putin can do whatever he wants without the international news media present.

  I wanted to go Salsa dancing tonight, but I still don't feel comfortable about sweating until my contact dermatitis heals more. My dog is banned from roaming in the shady brush (i.e., poison oak) near my home indefinately. So, I started thinking about what might significantly influence equity markets in the coming weeks and months. News events can affect markets, but don't ask me in what direction, because I don't know.

  The Ukrainian situation has been on my mind for the last 1-1/2 months, because it does have potential to move markets. As an options trader, I just want prices to move in the short-term and mitigate my longer-term risks by hedging my positions. Because the Ukrainian situation has been out of the lime-light compared to locating flight MH370, I started thinking what would I do if I was Putin.

  I would:

  1. Change Russian military/political tactics to keep foriegn governments off-balance through lying and deception.
  2. Keep the newly formed Ukrainian government off-balanced by fermenting unrest by supporting dis-infranchised Russian-speaking Ukrainians, maintaining troops near the Ukrainian borders, and making unrealistic demands for natural gas payments,
  3. Control information to Russians and show Russians how strong and important they were under the former Soviet Union,
  4. Allow Western politicians to make inflammatory political rhetoric to use as sound bites for Russian propaganda reports and to follow out-of-date contingency plans, and
  5. Wait for a perfect combination of weather, timing, and circumstances to mobilize Russian troops.

  If I am right about Putin's and his administrations ambitions, the Russian military will invade first eastern and/or southern Ukraine during a weekend or upcoming long holiday with cool temperatures, dizzle to light rain, and overcast skies for a week or so before scheduled elections on May 25, 2014. The aforementioned factors would hide Russian troop movements from satellites as well as limit the number of people, who would want to block military movements and minimize casualties.

  April 12 through April 19, 2014 could be very interesting for Ukrainians and equity markets, because the aforementioned conditions will be met according to Easern Ukraine accuweather.com satellite images and weather forecasts, and when Ukrainains celebrate Easter on 20-April-2014 according to http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/ukraine/easter-sunday.

  Of course, everything I am writing about is hypothetical. I wonder how different people will react to the same news stories. Run and hide, or overcome their fears and take advantage of opportunities.

  In the end I hope that if Russians do invade Ukraine that casualties will be minimal and everyone, including Americans, Ukrainians and Russians learn to critically think for themselves. Skepticism can be a good thing.

  Peace be with you and everyone, who you love,

  Robert
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  fulltimestudent

  A previous poster stated:

  If the U.S. was in the same situation, would they do the same?

  Interesting! It can be argued that they would!

  Obama made a very careless statement a little while back. He said, when discussing the decision by the Crimean people to leave the Ukraine and re-join Russia, something like this ...

  “We (the United States) have considerable influence on our neighbours. But generally, we do not need to invade them to enforce their cooperation.”

  A former Public Service head in OZ, commented:

  Generally? In its brief history of a little more than two centuries, the United States has invaded its neighbours on the American continent twenty nine times, beginning with its defeat in attempting to annexe Canada in 1812 (although even before that it had been casting its eye on Mexico and Haiti after its slave revolution). It was distracted for a period while it exterminated its internal enemy, the Indian tribes. Then it was full bore ahead.

  After the proclamation of the Monroe Doctrine, the divine right of the United States to govern the whole hemisphere, its first big invasion was of Mexico in 1846, adding another fifty percent to its territory (now Texas and California). In 1855, it occupied Nicaragua to re-establish slavery there as well as in the territory of its neighbours, Salvador and Honduras. Then there was Cuba in 1898, and then the conquest of Puerto Rico and the far away Philippines in the Spanish American war. Then Panama in 1903 and the Dominican Republic in 1904. Then in 1906, Cuba once again, Panama again in 1908, and in 1910, back into Nicaragua.
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  ABibleStudent

  Hi fulltimestudent, Governments/organizations are controlled/influenced by people who are greedy and self-interested, as well as by people who honestly want to help other people. I can find faults with many administrations throughout history and the world. Winners of conflicts usually write the history (i.e., information control). Critical thinking requires an open mind and doing independent research of events to understand motives, intent, and consequences. Debating which governments have done or could do worse seems pointless.

  IMHO standing up for my ideals and helping others to critically think for themselves is better than being miss-led by self-interested people using information control and BITE control techniques. There is not too much that I can do about the past, except learn from it. I can critically think about the future, make plans, and act in the present to help myself and others, who want to listen.

  Peace be with you and everyone, who you love,

  Robert
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  ABibleStudent

  It seems that there are Russian's who are willing to critically think for themselves and express their opinions to the Russian government according to http://news.yahoo.com/anti-kremlin-protest-draws-thousands-moscow-160257721.html.

  How can the Obama Adminstration be convinced to swtich from using inflammatory rhetoric towards Russian government officials, and instead communicate with words and actions that the USA and Western countries want Americans, Ukrainians, Russians, Chinese, etc. to critically think for themselves without coercion from governments/organizations?

  IMHO the best way for Russians (or citizens from any country) to crtically think for themselves and achieve their full potential is for citizens to convince their representatives to enact constitutional protections for a Free and Pluralistic Press, Free and Pluralistic Thought, Freedom from Unwarranted Incarceration/Coercion, and independent Administrative/Legislative/Judicial branches of goverment and stringent anti-corruption laws to minimize undue influence by governments, organizations, and wealthy individuals.

  Peace be with you and everyone, who you love,

  Robert
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  designs

  The US Navy is moving Battleships into the areas between Iran and Russia.