by designs 26 Replies latest social current
Interesting shout down occured in Eastern Ukraine between two factions of the Christian Orthodox following a deadly shoot out.
Ukrainian Orhtodox leader Patriarch Filerat condemned Putin and company as being against God's will while pro Russia Patriarch Kirill spoke of the West trying to destroy Holy Russia.
Like the Syrian war there are multiple players adn complex agendas. How do you see the political landscape changing depending on who prevails.
LOL, the main player is money- and it all comes from Moscow. Ukraine will be re-absorbed back into the Russian influence: either militarily or by stealth, or by bribery- however long it takes. It was a gamble for the West to get influence in Ukraine, and it will fail- sooner or later. Hopefully it will end peaceably.
LOL that’s my two cents- how it appears from the other side of the world.
1. IMF (International Monetary Fund) > issued debt in value of 27 Billion US$. They sure as hell want that money back, no matter how and no matter who is in power.
(Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/27/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2Q0MR20140327)
2. Gazprom > Ukraine owes 2.2 Billion US$ from past Gas supplies to the Russians. They sure as hell want their invoices paid ASAP.
(Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26930998)
Banks, Billionaires and some psychopaths in power (on both sides).
Hopefully this will not end in a full blown civil or international war. I feel sorry for old people, woman and children there.
It is amazing how the western territories of what constitutes Russia have changed over the past 100 years. Here it is changing again.
Russian Orthodox church is very reactionary and extremely nationalistic church which see itself as a spiritual leader of Russia and its leaders as a protector. There is nothing unusual in Russia where Orthodox priests bless skinheads to attack people from Caucasus, westerners, etc. Ukriane Orhodox church differs from Russian, it was heavily influenced by Catholic church and western Ukriane has is considered Greek Catholic church, which is blend between traditional Catholic Church and Greek. They also have specific good relationship with Rome. Ukraine church was never national as were Serbian or Russian, and they never had a protector like king or tzar. Ukraine church is based on medieval Kievan Rus which was cross-road between Central European Christianity and Byzantine Empire until its conquest by Mongol. Russian church developed from it, but it was isolated until 18th century from most of the foreigner thinking. Kievan Rus was influenced by Latin thinking and until 1450's it was considered as a part of the Western Christendom. During the council in Basil or Konstanz in 15th century, there were regular requests for Kievan patriarchs to attend by several Central European catholic leaders.
Unfortunatelly, Ukraine is failed state and it been well predicted since 1990's that country will face a civil war. Ukraine-Russian relationship are often compared to Serbo-Croat antagonism, only to be supressed by lack of national awakening in Ukraine. I think this is already happening, and Ukraine will be in the mist of the full scale invasion from Russia. As someone who lived post 1968 Czechoslovakia occupied by Soviet forces, Russia is playing the same scenario as it did during Prague Spring. It will stirr problems, occupy the country and incorporated to its empire. Question is where Russia will stop and I am sure their goal is taking over of entire Europe. In the past 200 years Russia occupied every country east of Paris. Every Slavic country was invaded by Russia since Napoleon. During the 1970's there was a joke under communism where teacher asks children to tell them which country Russia neighbors them. .. the answer was whatever country they feel like to. West is too naive to to think Putin will stop with Kiev.
News Reports say the US is sending 600 paratroopers to Eastern Ukraine on an open ended deployment.
The Ukraine was a disaster waiting for a place to happen, and Putin has 'grabbed' part of it (and may grab more) for a lot of reasons (his own ego, to bolster national pride, politics, money, etc.). But the Ukraine will be a welfare state, as the Crimea will be for years to come. This news item from yesterday shows that things can get very complicated. This is the same reason the Russian oligarchs have established a strong presence in the U.S. and other western nations; they don't trust that Vlad and the rest of the old KGB guard, will not try to re-establish the old ways.
"New statistics from the Central Bank of Russia indicate that almost $51 billion in capital exited the country in the first quarter of 2014. The exodus, says financial website Quartz.com, is largely the result of investor jitters over Russia's intervention in Ukraine and subsequent annexation of Crimea."
Doesn't most of Russia's oil flow through a pipline of the the ukraine?
The imporatance of Russian oil export into European Union has been decreasing for the last 10 years. The pipelines like Frensdhsip I-III served communist block but after the fall of communism, Central Europe is much diversified (Ingolstad, Schwechat, Adria, Leuna are integrated from different sources than Russia). Freindship I bypass Ukraine via Belorussia and Poland to Germany. Ukraine plains a minor role when it comes to oil transport.
Gas transport is different issue which comes through Ukraine via Transgas. This is more headache for southern Europe and Balkans that are not integrated into Western gas network like Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Austria. Southern Stream is not completed and European Union will eventually move toward shale gas deposit by thise time the line get completed. Because it is spring, the demand for gas is low and especially last winter was mild, so anyone who gets hurt are Russian companies. Of course situation will be differeing in October with the start of the heating season.
I can understand Russia's strategy. The United States would do the same. We do it south of the border. Cuba rings a bell.
