Interesting Band.
What is the difference between an opportunist and an imperialist.
Who are the Players in the Ukraine crisis
by designs 26 Replies latest social current
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DJS
The paratroopers are a good stategy, IMHO. Obama has been criticized for his tepid responses (we will so remove your visas if you don't stop that). Otherwise, the U.S. and W. Europe are not going to wage any type of military war over the Ukraine. Having said that, there are a lot of things the W. can do. Some of it is already happening by market forces (the removal of capital from Russia since the first of the year due to the Ukraine issue). As Kalk stated, the pipeline is of limited utility to Vlad. Other options are coming soon -within a few years. The Putin administration has already realized they are managing the economic decline of the Russian economy that is currently based on Gas. The Trans-Saharan, Medgaz, Maghreb-Europe, Trans-Mediterranean, and Greenstream pipelines are already planned and are currently being built. The lynchpin to these pipelines, the Trans-Saharan, is planned to be complete in 2018. Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria has just funded $700 more million to the project. The pipelines are engineered to go due N into the Mediterranean and then through Italy to the rest of Europe. Putin is on borrowed time.
In addition: I noted this article a couple of days ago which also reveals U.S. strategy to counter Putin:
"The U.S. has supplied Syrian rebel groups with a small number of advanced American antitank missiles for the first time in a pilot program that could lead to larger flows of sophisticated weaponry, people briefed on the effort said.The new willingness to arm these rebels comes after the failure of U.S.-backed peace talks in January and recent regime gains on the battlefield. It also follows a reorganization of Western-backed fighters aimed at creating a more effective military force and increasing protection for Christian and other religious minorities—something of particular importance to Washington."
The U.S. has been waging a status quo battle in Syria, essentially matching the support Vlad gave Assad while keeping a much desired stalemate. I doubt seriously that the reasons above are as stated; it is more likely that this is another counter to Vlad's actions. As I stated in earlier Syrian/Ukrainian posts, this is not the Cold War. There are a lot of things the West can do to make each step of Vlad's feel like molasses. If Obama and the West are smart, they will make it feel like quick sand.
Putin is shrewd and smart; he is no dummy. He is KGB through and through, but his pragmatic side just may reel him in. We shall see.
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ABibleStudent
I would like to learn more about how average Ukrainians and Russians feel about the crisis in Ukraine. The American news media seems to only provide snippets of rhetoric from polliticians. Does international news media do more indepth reporting of how average Ukrianians and Russians feel about this crisis.
I do feel that Putin has aspirations of increasing his influence over neighboring countries and Russions, as well as hiding problems within Russia. How do Russians feel about the trail of Alexey Navalny, a vocal critic of Putin, for corruption? How do average Russians feel about their news choices within Russia?
Lots of questions: no answers.
Peace be with you and everyone, who you love,
Robert
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Band on the Run
You would have to access newspapers in the Ukraine. It seems that the country is split. The eastern part wants to be Russian. I grew up believing I was Russian during the height of the Cold War. My bro and I cried when we heard the news. We were afraid the local kids would beat us up. I moved into a Slavic area. There are Orthodox churches on every corner. The big draw for me was the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. Most Slavic countries detest Russia. I called a consulate for help with tracing my family to the old country. When he heard we spoke Russia, he hung up the phone on me.
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prologos
it is all Chamberlain's fault, he should have declared war on Russia as per treaty, when Stalin invaded Poland in 1939.
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kaik
I was in Ukraine many years ago and it is culturally, economically, and socially divided country where the division is around Kiev. Western part was under Austrian Empire, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, while eastern part is russified. Each culture left mark on Ukraine. Lviv used to be a regional capital of Austrian Galicia until 1918. The city center resembles smaller Vienna with its architecture, boulevards, art nouveau style public buildings. Western Ukraine was until 1945 outside soviet control, while Kiev and eastern Ukraine was under Stalin, so half of the population lived only 46 years under Moscow control. This is also reason behind current crisis. Russia after 1991 is often compared to German's Weimar republic. It was economically broken and isolated. Almost everyone in Eastern Europe and almost every Slavic country except Serbs dispise Russia because of communism. The feel of revanchism was always there, but Russia lacked strong leader and economy to do so. This changed in past ten years under Putin. Russia sense a weakened EU and waning NATO influence to achieve its comback as a dominant European power. Russians did not want to participate in European integration which was detrimental for my generation that was part of the 1989 revolution that ended Soviet control and communist system. In 1989-1992 there was rather extensive debate if European integration would be from Atlantic to Ural mountains or from Brest to Brest, cities located in France and other in Belorussia. Russia eventually opted to stay out, created CIS, and returned when EU is weakened enough to fill the geopolitical void. Russia in the past 25 years oriented more toward rapidly developing 3rd world than European countries, USA, and Canada.
The biggest supporter of Russia is Germany. Germany likes when Russia pressures its former satellites and been successfull to postpone further integration of the postcommunist world into European economic structure. There is only one single highway between Germany and former Eastern Block which was opened after 20 years of delays (highway between Prague and Nuremberg). Railway lines, pipelines, energy grid is extremely difficult to interconnect due hostility of Germany. Pipeline between Czech Republic and Bavaria (Kralupy-Ingolstat pipeline) almost never completed as Germany was less dependable than Russia. Gas network was much easier to connect with Austria. Railway power grid between Germany and eastern neighbors are not compatable, making intracontinetal transport slow. Many former German officials are working for Russian companies. Germany is currently hostile toward Poland, because it is the biggest supporter of Ukraine and major opponent to Russia. There are almost daily verbal exchange between Polish and German leadership. From reading Polish sites, it seems sometimes that Poland should be more worried about Germany than Russia. Russo-German alliances are nothing new, they existed during 7 Years War or before 1941 when national dictator was a good friend with a communist one. Germany often dreams of good all time before the collapse of the Berlin Wall when it was protected by USA, Soviets were on its borders and they did not want any responsibility for European stability. The fear to lead Europe is sometimes considered the biggest weakeness of present EU. Germany would prefer instead extensive EU, smaller European economic zone that was there before 1994 and Russian control everything east of it.
Ukraine will eventually succumb to Russian pressure. Many in the former eastern block are worried that they are the next target. Russia never hide the intention to revive former Soviet Union under different name. This is also reason why NATO support in Eastern Europe is high, often in 70%. With a Germany backing, they can achieve it in year or so.
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prologos
players in the Ukraine? to play you need money, preparedness.
with the US, Euro DEBT, Ceiling-less, who is going to realistically fight resisting Russian expansionism?
You can not project power by building thousands of Wal-Marts.
superior Nuclear power? will Obama trade Kiev for New-York ?
THe Soviet Union faded because it was Broke aka in debt. a history repeat with roles reversed?
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zed is dead
Putin is vying for the title of "King of the North" again.
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Band on the Run
I lived three blocks from an annual Ukrainian festival. They would sing Ukrainian songs and dance folk dances. Freedom fighters were important to them. I wonder how the locals are taking the tensions. The Russian church is over one block.
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kaik
Russia does not have the economy to challenge USA & NATO. It is less developed than Poland, and has much lower GDP per capita than majority of EU. Its international export is equal to that of Netherlands. Russia is 1/2 of strenght what was USSR. Prolonged confrontation with the West will further delay a closure of the gap between the wealthy West. On top of it if faces a demographic change when 20% of its population is non-Russian.
Since the October 1917 revolution, Russia was often identified as King of the North due its communist past. Russia does not have much to gain from interference in Israel. 1/6 of population there have ancestral ties to Russia. Russia and Isreal are not mutually hostile countries, therefore, Russia is not the King of the North. Russia never had its military present in Levant. Westerners often omit China as the possible King of the North. During the Mongol conquest of the Middle East in the 13th century, Mongol army got as far as Giza. They got defeated at the battle of Ain Jalut in 1260, where Mamluk stopped expansion of the Mongol Empire into Egypt. It is considered as one the most important battle of the human race. If anything, 21st century will belong to China.