Great post, Snare.
The gambling addition analogy is appropriate. Actually, the concept of addiction itself is fitting. You made a point that I do not see made often on this board, but I observed in JWs as well. Born-ins and converts are not much different, once the "addiction" sets in. Think of a baby born to a drug addicted mother, vs. an adult addict. There is no real difference in terms of the signifcance of addiction in either. Either is equally powerful, and damaging.
Addicted to what though? The addiction in this case, is of an existential nature. Existential anxiety is "fear of the unknowable". Concepts that religous belief cater to include,"why do we exist", "what do we feel when we die", and so on. These are things that fall into the unknowable category, when an absolute answer is sought. Generalizations can be made, (some obviously more accurate than others, i.e. those that lean toward a scientific explanation), but these things do remain unknowable in the absolute sense. Religions that have very black and white, very "absolute", answers about such things tend to dull the natural effect of this anxiety, (much like heroin does physical or emotional pain), and just as heroin, are very addictive. A born-in just inherits this addiction from their parents. An adult convert makes this choice once exposed to the "relief" it offers, of the existentialism. In the end, this is why there is little difference, and either type of JW really has just as good of chance of breaking free under the right conditions.
What are the "right" conditions? Basically, in my observation, the pain of something else either directly or indirectly caused by the belief system needs to be more prevalent, than the pain caused by the existentialism, to the point where even the "withdrawal" symptoms are less painful.This is why many leave after experiencing a divorce, a judicial committee, being forced to "step down", etc. All of these things expose the sickness caused by the addiction.
Add to this, the enormous amount of cognitive dissonance one experiences when reality challenges their belief system, and it becomes easy to see why it is so hard to break free. The cognitive dissonance is experienced because a person cannot imagine life without their "drug". It changes how they understand everything around them. The "unknowable" answers to things the religion once provided are suddenly not valid anymore. This is unaccaptable to almost anyone under the spell of belief, and therefore the response is rationalization, denial, etc.
d4g