We credit religious believers with far too much interest in and/or ability to engage in reasoning. We overlook two hugely compelling factors that drive and revive "faith": Emotional need for religious meaning, including to be consoled over awful events, and being born into the religion. Raised from day one to recite stupidity, it is then hard to assess stupidity for what it is.
That is why there is no shortage of stupid religions who turn date-speculation into a near-art form. So, we learn that Chuck Russell, Watchtower founder, spun increasingly "reasonable" stories around dates of Biblical import. He clung to the year 1799 as the start of the time of the end that would have its farthest outreach 125 years later, in 1914. He expounded at length about 1799 - and boy did he sound convincing to the brainless faithful. Poor, poor sods.
Did it ruin this man's white-bearded appeal that, his successor, da Judge , impatiently concluded that 1799 was not the start of the time of the end and ditched the date? Of course it didn't.
Religions that peddle date-focused speculation thrive on members having the critical capacity of gnats. Ditch a date and dredge up a new one. Spin a compelling story. Cite Holy Scripture. Speak with authority. Mix confident assertions with a dash of pomposity. And once your believers fix themselves to your masthead, beef up their gullibility by intoning consequences for questioning - or worse, challenging - your stupidity. Shun those who dare call your stupidity what it is: Stupid.
1799, 1874,1914, 1918, 1919, 1925, 1975 - oh, I'm sure I've left some dates out. It makes no difference. Yes, the Watchtower's heyday in the West is over - but there won't be a mass exodus. It requires brain power to smell out Biblical stupidity. Judging by the dazed and indifferent countenances of those sitting in Kingdom Halls, the risk of the rank and file realizing they are stupidly following stupid teachings is microscopically small. So small, a gnat would have a better chance of exclaiming, "God, what a load of complete and utter rubbish they're peddling".
So, the GB massages expectations over 1914. They have no basis for worrying that it will backfire big time. No it won't. Just be glad you got out and - against the odds - are capable of smelling Stupidity when it fouls the air and calling it Stupid.