Chinese Progress in their Move from a Government Financed Economy to a Private Economy

by fulltimestudent 28 Replies latest social current

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    DJS: FTS,

    I referenced the Leslie Stahl 60 minutes piece on the uninhabited cites months ago in another Chinese miracle OP. This is real, vetted and reported by 60 minutes. You can view the video online if you wish. A transcript of Ms. Stahl's conversation with a Hong Kong based financial analyst is below

    Thnx - for the reference point, now I can go to work and talk specifically rather than generally.

    I will pick out five or six specific examples from that show, and we can examine them. Particularly focussing on the follwoing statements from 60 minutes.

    Lesley Stahl: But they're not just building housing. They're building cities.

    Gillem Tulloch: Yes. That's right.

    Lesley Stahl: Giant cities being built with people not coming to live here.

    Gillem Tulloch: Yes. I think they're building somewhere between 12 and 24 new cities every single year.

    Unlike our market driven economy, in China it's the government that has spent some $2 trillion to get these cities built - as a way of keeping the economy growing. The assumption is "if you build it, they'll come." But no one's coming.

    Lesley Stahl: Wow. This is really completely, totally empty and it goes up -

    Gillem took us to this shopping mall that's been standing vacant for three years.

    Lesley Stahl: Can I find this all over China?

    Gillem Tulloch: Yes, you can. They've simply built too much infrastructure too quickly.

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Ocean1111: Meaningless distraction imo. Russia, China and India, as examples, all scrapped socialism in 1990 and joined the worldwide market capital globalization effort with the Anglo-Americans. Thus "state capital" vs. "private capital" is pure baloney, even Communist USSR and China were private corporations themselves disguised as "government". Its all a ruse that led to a full globalization cycle after 1990. They all just happened to now create more billionaires in Russia, China and India than since their inception as nations—in 10 years! China even has a billionaire "landscape architect". LOL

    Ummm! not sure where to start with your posts, mate! So still engaged in a thought process

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    enlarged postate: Thank you. As an econ dude, I'm sure you've heard of Lewis turning points and their effects on growth. This is happening in China. Couple that with malinvestment (which you've covered) and an aging population, and it seems to me the question becomes whether the landing will be hard or soft, short or long, and when.

    Having exceeded my allocation of time for this thread already, may I just respond to one point? And, that is the matter of an aging population.

    An aging population is a serious matter in the west, but can be handled in a variety of ways. Australia (typically) is handling it through migration.

    This web-site makes this prediction for China 2050: http://populationpyramid.net/china/2050/

    Pew Research offers this information: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/02/03/10-projections-for-the-global-population-in-2050/

    Edited to add: Just lost a post so will come back to this a little later.

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Who will be among the oldest? By 2050, the majority of people in Japan, South Korea and Germany are expected to be older than 50. Some Latin American countries, which are now younger than the U.S., will likely be older than the U.S. by 2050.

    PG_14.01.29_agingFacts_3_medianAges

    The above Pew research graph, suggests that on the current trajectory in 2050 the average age in China will be 46 (up from current 35). Will that be unmanageable?

    Alternately what can be done to manage the problem. First of all, now that population increase is stabilised (as it seems to be) can the birthrate be increased? I suggest that it could be increased. The first steps have already been taken by the recent relaxation of the regulations to permit some to have two children. I'd predict further relaxation in the future, and, further down the track the complete removal of all population controlling rules, with a possible exception of the ban on aborting female foetuses. From a population perspective, a stable population of around 1200 million sounds a good thing for China.

    The next consideration is, can worker productivity be increased. Presently, it could be thought, too many people are engaged in agriculture, and their return is too low. Mechanisation of agriculture, at the level of the USA and Australia's examples, which is possible through more efficient broadacre farming, would permit the diversion of workers to other areas of activity, and at the same time, increase food production.

    Another possible solution may be to encourage migration.

    And the most important factor may be to increase productivity through the use of robots. That's also possible, already about 25% of the world's robotic machines are in China, and that can only increase

    So, in the case of China, is an aging population the problem that some think it may be? I speculate that it need not be.

  • Band on the Run
    Band on the Run

    Well, please don't encourage migration to the United States - written on behalf of all American taxpayers! I still haven't mastered French yet alone Spanish. The baby boomers want to enjoy Beatle music in our old age. Learning Mandarin would be too much for me now!

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    BOTR: Well, please don't encourage migration to the United States - written on behalf of all American taxpayers!

    When/if the USA gets to an age average level of 50-55, you will welcome migration to the USA.

    However, the context of my remark was China, and migration to China (likely from poorer - if they still are) S.E.Asian states, as a solution for the problems of an aging society.

  • Band on the Run
    Band on the Run

    I studied Oriental Civilization as an undergraduate. The course covered India, Japan, and China. Different profs came in to lecture depending on the area. MyI had one female prof who read erotic Sanskrit poetry on a radio station. The prof who taught the Japanese portion explained that the Japanese needed to emigrate b/c of overcrowding in Japan. The migration caused strains with China and the United States, particularly in California. Native born American farmers retaliated with a series of expressly racist laws. What country would be willing to accept and sustain masses of eldery Chinese people? None come to my mind. Abraham Lincoln's solution to the slave problem was to have freed slaves emigrate to Central or South America. Southern slaveowners would receive compensation for their lost property. Secretary of State Seward informed the selected countries. Their response was basically to make it very clear to Seward that a state of war would exist between the United States of America and said countries. Lincoln pitched his idea to freed blacks. Frederick Douglas present at the meeting. The freed slaves made it abundantly clear to Lincoln that this was their country. Lincoln moved on to other political situations.

    Perhaps all the baby boomers in a bad economy can emigrate to China.

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    I'm going to assert that the issue of 'ghost cities' in China is (being tactful) a distortion of what is happening in China, and I will go on to demonstrate that.

    But, first I want to discuss how we 'see' the world. We see the world from the persective of our own individual experience. Our western cities (these days) change little. And, that's how we westerners 'see' the world. For whatever reasons China is different. Things happen differently. Consider the Great Wall of China, its not unique, as every UK resident knows, the Romans also built walls, as did the Iranians, and many, many ancient cities. (In China, the Nanjing city wall, Xian city wall and Pingyao city wall are all mostly extant and give you an idea how impressive they must have been). But commencing around 200 BCE the Chinese started building this huge system of defensive/offensive walls that totalled over 6000 km. The people who commenced it had a vision in mind, but a long term way of seeing things:

    The roots of the Chinese Civil Service that controlled these building programs already existed, and have continued almost continuously for 2000 + years, and continue to provide the basis for the administration of the nation.

    Almost in the same era, the Grand Canal of China was built, near 2000 km of waterways connecting the north of China to the south, providing a safe method of travel from north to south and in many sections still in use.

    The Chinese way of thinking was copied by surrounding peoples, who (at times) managed to conquer much of China. These people copied the Chinese way, usually absorbing the civil service into their own administrations.

    This thinking still exists today. Starting 2007, the national government approved the building of a national fast train network (trains travelling faster than 200km/hour). In some cases existing track was up-graded, but much of it was new, and much of it was on pylons. Today there is more than 12,000 km of hi-speed track, providing north to south and east to west connections. It costs more to travel on hi-speed rail, but at least in my experience, trains are crowded. By 2020 the program calls for 20,000 of track. in the past 10 weeks some 10 sections of track joining smaller cites have been opened.

    Building method for above ground track:

    Current Chinese rail map:

    Is this unique ? No, another huge project has been the Yangzi river dam, but also another water project has been the ongoing construction of a massive water diversion project to take water from the south to the dryer north of the country.

    The project is planned to connect all four of China's major rivers and to eventually divert 44.8 billion cubic metres of water annually.

    ( Reference: http://www.water-technology.net/projects/south_north/ )

    Let's jump to modern cities.

    To background what I want to say (and demonstrate) about the so-called Chinese 'ghost cities, I think I can help people who are interested to understand this issue, by two (sort of) case studies. If I do it here it will unbalance this thread, so I plan to start two new threads, one on the city of Pudong in Shanghai and one on the city of Shenzhen in the south (near Hongkong).

  • Band on the Run
    Band on the Run

    This is the culture from which Maoism emerged. Even in the 60s, I never went around with a little red book. Mao prob. caused more people to die than any figure in history. I would love to hear what freedoms and personal autonomy are being asserted in China. Excuse me if I do not worship. Western civilization has its strong points. Internet access, freedom of the press, free speech rights, due process, writ of habeus corpus, and equal protection are crucial. I remember Kent State and Tianmen Square.The American casualties were far less. I remember how regular people understood the grief over Kent State. We were always able to petition our government and go home in freedom. The New York Times ran an article on Hong Kong tycoons and their neutral stance to democracy. Let Hong Kong be a center of democracy and basic freedom.

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