Interesting discussion. I agree with Farkel - I don't forsee any one issue being "the" thing that causes a huge exodus of long-time Witnesses from the WTS. Minimus - you're discussing something that just isn't going to happen. This will be a cumulative collapse that will take decades, and for the reasons you've brought out.
This is the scenario I foresee, and I feel it actually started in the mid-90's with the generation change:
Growth will continue to slow and eventually reverse itself, which is true in about 75 first world countries over the past seven years or so.
Leadership will deteriorate as the best minds in the organization continue to see through what is happening and often quietly step down and leave. The amazing stupidity in how the Society has handled the public relations on the pedophile issue is a case in point. These are not very bright moves. If JR Brown and Bob Pevy are the voices of choice to explain WTS issues, the Society is in serious trouble. These are guys seriously out of touch with the 'real world.'
A high percentage of those who remain Witnesses will in reality take much of what they hear from the Governing Body with a grain of salt. Blind obedience is a thing of the past for many rank and file members. I see this all the time. Many of these people will stay Witnesses, because they cannot face life without the hope of the New System, resurrection, etc., and they have the social world of the Witnesses, which is very appealing. They'll stay, but they just won't believe everything they are told.
The organization will collapse slowly - not overnight. I will be surprised if in 2102 there is still an active Jehovah's Witness religion. Why? They have left themselves very little room to make necessary changes. The generation change was a bold move, and created a huge uproar and many of us left because it was such an obvious attempt to cover their collective asses. And, I don't think they have anyone with the creativity, vision and individuality, who is in a leadership position, to guide the WTS into new waters. All those men and women have left, or been squelched or booted out. Those are not the qualities of a good "society man" who will be given responsibility. So they are in a stuck position that is becoming increasingly out-dated and unacceptable to many, but defended by the leadership..
And finally, the Society makes a huge mistake in their thinking that God is guiding them, and that Jehovah will straighten out all these issues in His due time. I remember a CO telling me this when I tried talking with him about how the Society was handling sexual abuse and mental health issues in the early 80s. It's the same as watching a building collapsing around you, and putting off any needed maintenance until the invisible carpenter shows up to do it. So things just get worse, and you have no personal responsibility, because you're "waiting until the invisible carpenter fixes it." Well, the WTS's depending on Jehovah to handle these problems won't work because there is no Jehovah. Or if there is, he sure isn't fixing anything in the WTS.
Just some thoughts. S4