The chart showing GROWTH from 1980 -2014, with all the people leaving, and dying, and DF, and the internet, and all the bad publicity, there is an increase of about 6 million. An average increase of 176,470 publishers per year. That is hardly a decline. Your projection that this is the decline of the WT, is your personal view which is not supported by the chart.
Massive Growth in Dub Numbers???
by 1rebelheart 40 Replies latest jw friends
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sir82
2 million increase in 5 years?
No.
As the chart above shows, growth in publishers was about 900,000 in 5 years.
A few other points to keep in mind:
-- The chart shows "peak" publishers, which is a misleading number as it includes hundreds of thousands of reports from prior months not turned in on time
-- A large proportion of those 900,000 new publishers are children of JWs, pressured by their parents into becoming unbaptized publishers
-- A large proportion, by some estimates as much as 60 or 70%, of those children of JWs will not continue as JWs as adults
JWs are still growing, primarily as a result of aggressive recruiting of immigrants in the wealthier western countries where those immigrants flee to, and the above-mentioned natural growth from kids being pressured into "publishing".
But the rate of growth is much lower than a decade or 2 ago, and (I predict) will slow even more, and (before too long) level off and then (a little farther out) start a slow, inexorable decline.
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coalize
Ws are still growing, primarily as a result of aggressive recruiting of immigrants in the wealthier western countries where those immigrants flee to,
Especially, a result of aggressive recruiting of CHRISTIAN immigrants in the wealthier western countries where those immigrants flee to.
Because, here, in France, the immigrants are at 99% muslims. And it don't work at all when JWs try to recruiting them. At a point, they don't really try!
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joe134cd
From observation in the cong I was in before I left they are bleeding members. Around the time I left there were 5 others that left under unfavourable circumstances with out been disfellowshipped, and will never return. 3 others were disfellowshiped (I've heard these ones have since been reinstated). Since I've become inactive there have been a further 3 (that i have heard of)that are inactive as well. That's 12 members of the cong left with in the space of about 3-4 years. I havnt seen a new convert come in, in years. The only bible studies are ones with serious mental issues who would believe anything. The thing I can't understand is why they havnt started merging congregations yet. I can't be to far away. -
Splash
Fisherman Your projection that this is the decline of the WT, is your personal view which is not supported by the chart.
I actually said that this is the start of the decline, not that the table demonstrates a decline. And yes, I agree that this is merely my opinion. I'm not arrogant enough to state categorically what the near future holds. Unlike some, I recognise that this isn't sensible to do...
What is decline? If WT increases by 1% per year, this is less than the world population increase.
You can correctly state that the number of members are growing, but in relation to the world in general they will be reducing as a percentage of world population. To me this is not legitimate 'growth' for a group who boasts about worldwide figures.
This would be increase in isolation and nothing to be proud about, much like the 0.2% baptisms we are seeing at the conventions.
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joe134cd
I sort of wonder if part of the reason for growth declining after the 1990s, was not so much due to less converts coming in but perhsps a poorer retention rate of its existing members (particularly it's youth). The internet is killing them. -
Gayle
In U.S., yearbook reports for : 2010 Ratio 1 JW per population 259
2014 Ratio 1 JW per population 259
So, not increasing that way either (by WT yearbook record).
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steve2
I notice that Vidiot quotes me in his post but until this post I haven't posted previously in this thread. Unless I have a doppleganger somewhere?
Regarding measuring of peak publishers, be aware that these are usually inflated by end-of-the-year double counts.When the elder who collects the monthly reports doesn't get them from some publishers in any one month period, he will often approach those publishers who will retrospectively be asked to complete reports for more than one month and they end up being counted as additional publishers. Keep this in mind when you survey "Peak Publishers" - it is extremely prone to inflation effects.
A better measure - although it too has problems - is monitoring Average Publishers from year to year.
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steve2
the GB baffoons are saying the 67000 witness die a year
So, I guess these hapless witnesses are not among the millions now living who will never die?
Sorry, couldn't help it.
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Crazyguy
I was a teenager in the 80s and we had about twenty kids in my hall all about the same age. Of those twenty all but about two or three left. Some may have come back later but at least 15 never came back. I have a sister that was born 15 years after me and went to the same hall. Of all the kids in the hall when she was a teenager over half have left. The pew servey seams to indicate that the growth in this country is mostly Spanish speaking and only because of them this country hasn't seen a decline. So as more and more Spanish speaking Websites go up showing ttatt this too will come to an end. The hall I grew up in is now a ghost of its former self.