Overhere, there was an increase of 4 - 5 % during the spring and summer months, as compared to the same months the previous year.
Increase in Publishers for Canada
by William Penwell 29 Replies latest jw friends
-
-
Pathofthorns
Someone had said they were expecting an increase this year. I still believe the fundamentals are too shaky in this country for them to be expressing any optimism.
To have gained only 1% after a mind-blowing event such as 9/11 or re-defining publisher requirements to only 15 minutes is absolutely pathetic.
Despite pockets of fanatical devotion by JW's in this country, for the most part a significant number view the routine as a ritualistic chore and are JW's in name only. The beliefs actually have little impact on their daily life and this appathy is what is destroying them here.
Path
-
minimus
Do you really think the Society would give accurate figures? They can say anything they want. People are seldom out in service or at meetings.
-
Marvin Shilmer
Hi, Path
You are correct in saying "for the most part a significant number view the routine as a ritualistic chore and are JW's in name only."
As a general rule congregations throughout the US branch have very little support for organized meetings for field service. This is something talked about openly by COs and DOs. The 1995 change in teaching regarding "this generation" is rumored as the main culprit responsible for this apathy. In 1996 and 97 a few guest Bethel speakers chastised JW audiences at Special Assemblies about slowing down in their efforts because of this doctrinal change. Apparently someone complained about it in some way because these guest speakers suddenly stopped the browbeating, at least over the "generation" teaching.
Recently I visited a congregation that has higher than average field service statistics. During the same service meeting part where they commended the congregation for its good efforts in the ministry, they turned around and reprimanded them because, as the speaker put it, "We never have more than 3 or 4 publishers show up for our meeting for field service on Saturdays and Sundays, and the same is true for midweek meetings!" I have read several CO reports describing the same contradiction from different congregations. Elders wonder when and where publishers are "getting the time in."
-
Scully
Hi Expat:
I guess I was thinking in terms of even though the # of publishers are increasing as a result of the 15-minute arrangement, those publishers are going to drag down the average - perhaps not noticably on a per congregation basis, since there may only be one or two people who fall in this category - but they do report the total number of hours and publishers to the Branch Office on a monthly basis, which is accumulated into the annual figures at the end of August each year.
For instance: if the average hours/publisher is for example 10/month, that's the equivalent of 40 people putting in 15-minutes.
If you have 100,000 regular publishers, and say 10% in addition to that who are either irregular or inactive = 110,000 (peak); let's say 1% of the inactive/irregular qualify for 15-minute provision (1000)
100,000 x 10hours/month x 12 months = 12,000,000 hours/year (average 10 hrs/month)
1000 x 0.25 hours/month x 12 months = 3,000 hours/year (based on 1% of inactive)
2000 x 0.25 hours/month x 12 months = 6,000 hours/year (based on 2% of inactive)
101,000 publishers doing 12,003,000 hours/year (average 9.9 hrs/month)
102,000 publishers doing 12,006,000 hours/year (average 9.8 hrs/month)
If they go by peak publishers, it's even worse:
110,000 publishers doing 12,003,000 hours/year (average 9.1 hrs/month)
So, even though there is no appreciable difference in the average, the more 15-minute publishers you have, the poorer the average becomes.
We also don't know how many people who were doing the "bare minimum" just so they could be included in the figures have adjusted their activity to the new "bare minimum"... that too will be interesting.
Anyway, I was just having some fun with the numbers, not trying to start an argument. I defer to your accountliness, of course. I agree that the dropping off of baptisms and the aging (dying off) population of staunch dubs is probably more damaging in the long run.
Love, Scully
-
expatbrit
Scully:
Damn! It's Monday morning and I want an argument! At least until the third pot of coffee hits the spot, anyway.
Actually, your comment has highlighted a failing in my data. I don't have the twelve month moving average for publisher hours. So I'm afraid I'll have to shoot myself.
Another trouble with the WT figures is that they are so rounded. For instance, showing a 1% increase actually allows for quite a large range (0.50% to 1.49%.
In terms of hours, the average might be recorded as the same, year to year. Say 9.4% for example. Additional 15 minute publishers may have pushed the average down, but because of rounding, it doesn't show up in the figures. Sloppy.
Expatbrit
-
Scully
Expat:
In terms of hours, the average might be recorded as the same, year to year. Say 9.4% for example. Additional 15 minute publishers may have pushed the average down, but because of rounding, it doesn't show up in the figures. Sloppy.
Agreed. Quite sloppy. Kind of like how they've reported $951 million in revenue each year for the past 10 years or so.
Love, Scully
-
William Penwell
Everyone has made some good points that I never thought of. This was presented by one of the Bethel elders and of course they will paint a nice picture. As far as I remember that was the only positive thing he had to say, so you are all right that even though there was a slight increase of 1%, the overall average has gone down a bit. Typical Jdub motivational sales meeting as usual.
Will
-
LovesDubs
According to this site...which I adore...for visualizing changes in the BORG.... Canada is practically flatlining growth wise like the United states. Very few coming in..very little increase. People KNOW better than to believe anything they are told any more. They have no enthusiasm for the meetings, the assemblies the magazines...its all blah blah blah. They cant leave tho...the numbers illustrate how trapped they are, putting in absolutely the minimum effort just to keep the heat off.
-
Scully
hi LovesDubs
Just thought I'd try to embed that website to make it easier to share: