The change in understanding of "this generation" would also have an effect. Those who expected to be in "paradise" by now just aren't buying it anymore. The words "Armageddon is just around the corner" have been said so much that it no longer has the same stimulating response to go and do more.
Signs of JW decline
by larc 29 Replies latest jw friends
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rocky220
That's right Benext......You cant cry "WOLF!" too many times and Wolf dont come, just make sure that when it does come ,WT needs to make sure that they are not the ones devoured!!!!!!And by the way Hi stranger!!!!!.......rocky220
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Pork Chop
The Organization has been pretty consistent in saying that "the love of the greater number will cool off" does not apply to the Organization. I haven't seen any change in that.
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Sentinel
Perhaps there will always be "Jehovah's Witnesses" as long as the world continues to exist the way it has since mankind began it's journey here; but I expect that the headquarters will have to modify some of their main doctrines in order for them to survive. Since they have been expecting Armageddon to come since the early 1900's, and it has not arrived yet, in the fashion to which they have promised, it is obvious that they are wrong in their concepts. So much of their work is based on the premice of world destruction. Many religions have changed over the years. Even the Catholic Church as modified itself somewhat. And, for those who "don't accept", they are always free to start yet another Church.
As we know, the JW concept is so separate and apart from the other religions. They operate a whole different way. They have such an elevated opinion of themselves, that "humble" does not come to mind. The cult-like views of being "The" only organization to be in "god's favor", and the rest of us are doomed to destruction, is really a very dogmatic view of reality. Their persecution is "self inflicted", and so they continue to exist under this arbitrary code of behavior, which for some, is their whole life.
The internet has opened up the world in a way that nothing preceding it could accomplish. At our fingertips are answers to questions, and places to go to find good sources of documented truth and facts. The "secrets" of the JW's are exposed. The truths about the lies are spread out for all to see, instead of being hidden away. The new enemy is right in their own KH's, it's the educated individual, squirming in their seat.......
JW's could continue and no doubt be successful, if they just became less "cult-like". Their members are a good quality of people from all walks of life, just trying to do good. These members need something to hold onto, to help them, because they have made such sacrifices, that if all were lost, many would face a horrible transistion period. (These are the ones who adhere to all the rules and regulations.) I don't know if this is an option for them. They are very hardlined in their main offices, and this is where the "Light" is supposed to be coming from.
I have a great deal of empathy for those still entrapped by their teachings, my mother and Aunt included.
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TheOldHippie
RunningMan, yes I am of course familiar with what you say, but a 2 % increase in fact means a 5 % increase in the number of publishers, because there are 1 % dying, 1 % df'ed and 1 % leaving, so these have to be added to, not deducted from, the amount, to get the total amount of "new" ones. On the other hand, people who reappear and included, so these calculatins are close to impossible, as other threads have shown.
But I don't buy the effect of the 15 minutes rule, because the average amount of hours, deliveries and return visits have also increased, and a couple of %% of 15 minutes people would have led to these numbers dropping and not increasing.
So, I have problems seeing how such an increase can be made into in reality being a decrease.
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RunningMan
OldHippie: You are indeed mathematically challenged. I'm not sure how you could fit so many errors into so few words.
First of all, you are adding when you should be subtracting. Take the numbers (approximate) for Canada this year, for example.
Avg publishers last year + baptisms - mortality - defections = expected result
107,000 + 2,030 - 1,391 - 1,070 = 106,569
Yet, the numbers will show around 109,000. This means one of two things. Either the counting mechanism has changed, so that more heads are counted, or there have been a lot of reactivations, which quite frankly, is preposterous.
This formula has worked quite well in the past. Try it for previous years.
Now let's look at the impact of 15 minute publishers on hours.
Last year, around 18,000,000 hours were spent in Canada. That's about 14.0 hours per person per month (this averages pioneers and publishers together).
If we add in 1,712 15-minute publishers, we get 18,005,136 hours divided by 108,712 persons for 13.8 hours per person. A fluctuation this small would be completely lost. It is well within a normally expected range, and would not be noticeable.
Your assertion that hours per publisher have been increasing is also wrong. In Canada the number of hours per person has decreased substantially from 16 just a few years ago.
Face the mathematical facts, man. The increase that will be reported this year comes from playing with the numbers. There is no real increase.
If you don't believe me, just wait till next year. You will see the regularly scheduled decrease kick in once again, after a one year absense.
Edited by - RunningMan on 29 October 2002 9:46:34
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larc
I don't know all the assumptions behind various calculations, but there is a far simpler way to calculate the numbers. Use population growth as your base point. This is a known statistic and reported in many sources. It is found by subtracting deaths from births in any given year. For 24 countries, the JWs have had either zero growth or an actual decline for the past four years. Therefore, with recruiting and growing their own (having children), they are not growing at all. For global numbers including underdeveloped countries, there growth rate last year was only .2% above population growth, barely above zero.
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jws
I wonder if the attempt to contact inactive ones is a desperate attempt to make the numbers look better (See the post on the Elder's meeting). In Jan-Mar (if they haven't already started) there's a push to contact inactive ones and offer studies. Even if they've been inactive 20-30 years, they are going to come looking for you.
The thinking may be that they at one time were JWs. Pulling them back in, theoretically, may take less effort than trying to find somebody interested in the door-to-door work and convert them.
However, if this action results in more dissassociations from people who are forced to make a decision one-way-or-the-other and they choose to reject them, this may drive down memorial attendance, which is another number they parade around. One has to believe that at least some of the inactive ones (probably the more recently inactive) will at least come to the memorial. If they are DA'ed, I'd say that's a lot less likely.
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RunningMan
It seems to me that the WTS is a business whose primary aquisition tool is no longer working.
The door to door work no longer brings in any converts. So, they altered it to include more street witnessing - accosting strangers in public places.
That had limited effectivesness, so they thought they would tap the infirm and elderly market with the 15 minute rule. That had some impact, but you can only lower the hour requirement so much before you run out of room.
Now, they are looking to long time inactive ones as a potential source of customers. I don't imagine that will work very well either.
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BeelzeDub
If the decline continues I would not be surprised to see the GB get a flash of new light and say time reporting is not required anymore. There is no bible basis for it and that would get the numbers going back in the direction they desire based on the fact that now they can count inactive JW's again.
Edited by - beelzeDub on 29 October 2002 17:36:55