Remember the fears about the spread of AIDS? SARS is the reality

by Simon 29 Replies latest social current

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  Simon

  Remember the fears everyone had when AIDS first hit the news?

  Here was a new killer virus that didn't have a cure and people feared it could be passed on cups, on seats, by shaking hands, by coughing and sneezing and so on.

  It turns out that it couldn't and while there is still no cure, the infection rate is actually relatively low. It takes 2 years for an aids victim to infect someone else.

  Now we have SARS, everything changes. This spreads like ... well, like the common cold. They have already lost the trail of infections and the growth has been exponential.

  The mortality rate that they have reported is 4% but most doctors are saying it's being misrepresented by dividing the deaths by the no. of suspected cases instead of the number who recover. Using the standard calculation used for other things shows a mortality rate of between 10% and 20% !!

  Thanks to our "small world" and global travel, it's already spread around the world and I think it's unlikely to be contained.

  Make no mistake, this is BIG. Even if we are unaffected directly, it will hit global trade and cause major problems.

  Less advanced countries will need help to prevent the spread and we need to help them. Unless we intend to close our borders and live in a buble then we can't afford to let large populations in ther countries become infected.

  I'm sorry to be so pessimistic but I think this could really be the big one and could spell disaster.
• 

  Simon

  Some links and stuff ...

  

  http://www.guardian.co.uk/sars/0,13036,929517,00.html
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  Simon

  
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  Jayson

  Well if you are right I'm going to be pissed that I paid my taxes! I have a friend who just went to china for vacation. HOW DUMB IS THAT! Pandemics have killed masses before and often seem to follow with the heels of war. spoooooky
• 

  qwerty

  www.ananova.com

  A UK medical expert has warned the Sars virus has the potential to be more devastating than the Aids epidemic.
  

  Dr Patrick Dixon said it was not inevitable, but there was a 25% chance of a global Sars pandemic.

  Dr Dixon, who is an expert on Aids and considered Europe's leading futurist, predicting global trends, said the crisis needed to be taken out of the hands of health chiefs and handled by world leaders.

  He said: "This is not a yuppie disease contracted by air travellers. That is a pathetic reaction that will put the whole world at risk. It is worth remembering that Aids has infected 80 million people so far over a 15 to 20 year period.

  "Aids spreads slowly so we can track it and plan for it. We have effective anti-viral drugs which can prolong life. But this is different, we don't have the time. This is a far more serious epidemic potentially than Aids."

  Dr Dixon said his main concern was not the number of infections in Beijing, but rural, isolated areas in China and around the world.

  He said: "China has draconian measures in place in a bid to contain the virus, but in a country like India which is chaotic with minimum health provision, the potential for spreading the virus is huge."

  Dr Dixon, a fellow at the Centre for Management Development at London Business School, said if current trends continued there could be a billion cases within 60 weeks. He has called on world leaders to address the problem as a matter of national security.

  He added: "Unless the virus spontaneously mutates into a less dangerous form, the only hope we have is to mount an immediate aggressive global response at the highest levels against Sars, something we've not yet seen.

  "If things continue as they are, with a mixture of denial, confusion, delay, ignorance, bad decisions, poor data gathering, official decision-making paralysis, incompetence, concealment, secrecy and government apathy in some parts of the world, then a pandemic is surely only a matter of time."

  Have to agree with you on this Simon. I am quite worried, like you say the world is a smaller place with modern transport!

  Qwerty

  Qwerty
• 

  hippikon

  Aids kills every one it infects eventually 100% mortality So far about 25% of those who have been infected with the SARS virus have recovered.

  It takes two years before you see any symptoms with aids making it spread silently. Aids was also confined initially to narrow “behaviour” groups like IV Drug Addicts, Homosexuals, prostitutes etc

  While the numbers are relatively low the health system can cope and patients get relatively good care but as the number “Exponentially” increases the health systems around the world will be overwhelmed. There just won’t be a health system available for most people, increasing the likely death rate.

  Personally I like the bubble idea
• 

  RAYZORBLADE

  Toronto has been what I'd call: hit heavy with this S.A.R.S. outbreak.

  Most of the deaths in Canada, and the people who have come down with it, are predominantly in the Greater Toronto region.

  I do know people who are HIV + , and have had it for more than 10 years. They do not have AIDS, but they are HIV + which is linked to the development of AIDS with some people.

  S.A.R.S. is scarier as it is passed along much easier than is HIV infection. Thus, the general population is potentially at risk.

  I work in the hospitality industry, and our business, has probably been affected somewhat. I hope that a vaccine will be ready soon. Of course, I'd like to see a vaccine for HIV also.

  It boggles my mind sometimes: we can send a man to the moon, but some things such as certain life threatening illnesses, we cannot cure.

  Dubs must be lovin' this, sign of the end times......
• 

  teenyuck

  There are a few cases here in central Ohio. Lots of distribution and lots of people going to Hong Kong for business.

  On the local news (and I believe national) they are telling people definitely do not go to Asia and absolutely do not go to Toronto. THey showed a Canadian official saying it is silly for Americans not to visit (huge tourist $$$) and he was furious.

  The Limited, Abecrombie & Fitch, Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works and a few other retail clothing companies are based here.....all have totally stopped travel to Asia.

  Hubby was there (Hong Kong and China) in late January and now (the last week) he has all the symptoms. I did not until yesterday. He has been coughing, sneezing and flu like symptoms. He has an appointment tomorrow. Now I am starting to cough and feel like crap.

  I hate to be a hypocondriac, however, it is odd that at this time of year, we are both falling ill. Especially since he was in Asia. He went into China and visited all kinds of manufacturing plants.
• 

  Shakita

  teenyuck:

  Yikes! Hope everything is ok with you guys and it turns out to be nothing but a cold.

  Sars is probably with us to stay, like the common cold and the flu.

  The WHO's travel advisory for Toronto has pissed off a lot of people. Apparently, the hospital officials are saying that they have the infection under control and that the numbers are actually on the decline. Sars was, in Toronto, a hospital based problem with infections being transmitted between hospital staff, visitors and patients. The Sars transmission is by respiratory droplets, it is not airborne spread. Sars also requires prolonged contact with the infected person to be transmitted.

  http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20030424/COSCHABAS/TPHealth/

  China, on the other hand, has waited too long to face the fact that they have a big problem there. Now the people are paying the price of a government too arrogant to admit they have an epidemic.

  Mrs. Shakita
• 

  Hamas

  Yeah Yeah heard it all before

  Just scare mongering tactics.

  I wouldn't worry about it, you can die of anything in this sick world. Carry on in your business.