President-Elect Trump Tears Into Biden For Making World 'Vastly Dangerous'; World War 3 Warning!

by Esoteric 35 Replies latest social current

• 

  SydBarrett

  @SydBarrett: you are comparing the highest number of Trump (after he lost the election and the market response to that event)

  2019.
  
• 

  peacefulpete

  Anony mous.....This was hashed in detail on this board years ago. Obama began demanding that oil leases be used or they would be voided. The game was/is for oil companies to hold leases without intent to use for accounting reasons. It enables the books to appear better for favorable loans and investor potential. It ultimately becomes a control over the market as well. The same issue has returned to the public attention under Biden.

  The reality is that presently oil companies are sitting on 6-7000 Federal land leases and have no interest in exploring them, as they benefit from holding them and do not wish to glut the market through over production. The issue is not making leases available, the issue, if there really is one, is capitalism.

  As far as Obama's and Trump's effect on oil production:

  The number of producing acres and leases on federal lands was about consistent between the two administrations' final fiscal years in office.

  , gas permits, leases surged from final Obama year through Trump years | S&P Global Market Intelligence

  The Keystone XL pipeline. is not domestic oil, it is designed to facilitate the transfer of Canadian oil to Nebraska where is then goes to the Gulf to refineries that can deal with the low-grade/heavy oil. 2/3rds of which will be exported by the oil companies to other markets. None of this results in lower costs to Americans or anyone. It simply facilitates trade. As the State Dept made clear last year:

  "As the final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement makes clear, gas prices throughout the United States are primarily driven by global market factors," a spokesperson said. "The amount of Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) crude that makes its way to the Gulf region does not change this dynamic. Any impact on prices for refined petroleum products resulting from the approval and construction of the Keystone XL pipeline would be minimal."

  Even with an honest portrayal of the risks and rewards, not everyone will agree about the pipeline as people value things differently.

  Recall that gas and oil prices soared (over 4$ for both here) under Bush Jr.

  As suspicious as it looked for that that to happen under the presidency of a family so well connected with the oil industry, the reality is the market disruptions of Iran, Nicaragua and Brazil created the spike in prices much like how the Russian/Ukraine war, the Israel/Iran tensions are today. US oil companies and brokers have a fiduciary duty to shareholders to make as much profit as possible. When the rest of the world's oil prices went up the prices for domestic oil followed. That will not change because of more federal land being sold as leases for oil drilling.
• 

  peacefulpete

  On the ironic side, when the macroeconomic outlook is shocked, the price of oil has often collapsed. There was a brief time during the pandemic that oil was essentially $0. There was no market. The lockdowns created such a glut that the market folded. It also bottomed in 2008 with the market crash. Given that history, who knows what the next few years will produce. With the promised rescinding of EV incentives and clean energy investment, it is possible oil prices will spike again, but if the larger market destabilizes and inflation returns as most are predicting, it's anyone's guess.
• 

  Anony Mous

  Gas prices never went over $4 under Bush Jr. it peaked at $3.30. The economic reality is that if investors feel that they are not going to get an ROI, they don’t invest, that is purely related to policy, not due to unwillingness of taking available leases or other such bullshit reasons.

  Both Obama and Biden put so much red tape around “available” leases that in some they were forced to by Congress and courts, they still didn’t move for years. So your excuses that it is just coincidence that whenever Democrats are in power, the economy collapses, is belied by the facts that policy has an effect and even if they make it appear as if they are opening up drilling for political reasons, they still have 500+ agencies to effectively kill any permit.

  With the solar and EV policies coming to a sudden end in Europe (in Germany, Netherlands and Belgium EV funds literally ran out of money) we don’t see a sudden spike there, we see people once again spending money.
• 

  peacefulpete

  Gasoline prices peaked at average of $4.11 July 2008. Propane was over $4/gallon. I mistyped 'oil' when I meant propane/lp. Regardless the point is that the President has very little to do with petroleum prices as they are determined globally.

  The economic reality is that if investors feel that they are not going to get an ROI, they don’t invest, ....

  Not sure if you are talking about stock prices or product prices. They are not the same. Stock prices are speculative, and investor driven. Oil prices are reactive, and producer and consumer driven.

  The holding of unused leases absolutely does provide investor confidence for future potential and has an impact upon stock prices. Oil companies have rebuffed the notion that they are deliberately holding back production. Like most things the truth is in the middle. The holding of unused leases is a benefit financially AND a result of market conditions. Companies continue to accumulate leases when they are already holding many more than they presently need. This is not a conspiracy, it is business in an industry of finance and perception. Perhaps my last comment was not nuanced enough.

  The problem (again if there actually is one) is not availability of land leases, nor BLM permitting, as is often tossed around, it is a reality that oil has costs to produce and distribute and oil prices are fixed globally.

  Another reality, in Texas for example 90% of production (and leases) is on private land, actually most of the best reserves are also on private land. The 10% on Federal land are therefore a smaller factor than many believe.

  Oil companies are not going to survive if they are forced to produce more than the market supports, nor will they survive if they are forced to sell only to domestic buyers at a discount. As I said earlier, those measures would require a nationalization (government takeover) of the industry and cost billions in subsidies.

  In addition, labor shortages are also a factor according to this article. Why oil companies aren't drilling on those 9,000 land leases - Marketplace
• 

  peacefulpete

  $4.11 in 2008 equates to $31.89 in 2024. The fact is gas is cheap. The system works pretty well to isolate prices from typical inflation rates.

  Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value From 1913-2024