I think there has been a good chance that Trump would win at various points in the campaign, especially around the time that Biden dropped out and around the assassination attempt. This adequately account for the reluctance of power parties not to wish to cross Trump in case he win. It is not a great indicator of the state of the race at the very end of the campaign because these decisions were made some time ago.
On the other hand The Economist endorsed Harris and Harris raised more money than Trump and the candidate who raises and spends the most money usually wins.
But I’m not basing my opinion on that. I’m basically basing my opinion on the polling experts who indicate that Harris will win. In particular Seltzer has Harris on top in Iowa and Nate Silver says the pollsters are herding in the middle because they don’t want to get caught out underestimating Trump for the third time. Which in reality means they are perhaps underestimating Harris this time. Harris is also on top with women voters and women are more reliable voters than men which perhaps gives her a slight advantage that the polls don’t cover.
So I think Harris will win, perhaps by a significant margin.