by slimboyfat 169 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
slimboyfat:
It’s because you cast doubt on Watchtower figures
Still misrepresenting what I said. 🤦♂️ They use different metrics, counting only a subset of adherents. It doesn’t mean the figures from Watch Tower are ‘in doubt’. They just can’t be directly compared with datasets that count membership differently. I never said that secular measures of JWs can’t be compared with secular measures of other denominations. I never said other denominations aren’t losing more members.
Jeffro - They just can’t be directly compared with datasets that count membership differently.
This is simply not true:
I've broken the video into time slots to give a more definitive and direct answer. The video is fascinating, and may force us to rethink our position on JW statistics. I would hope that MR JWFACTS will read this as well. The real discusion on statistics is from the 21min - 1:45 mark.
21-31min A similar observation is made, to Slim, with regard to church attendance. The exception is that he was a Mormon Bishop covering two Australian states.
i have argued many times that number of congregations is the best statistic for comparison for number reasons.
50min - 1hour They support slims argument on counting congregations.
1:33 - 1:44 Activity rates in the UK at around 14.7% of the 188,000 members claimed by the LDS. Interestingly he makes the statement that there could be 30,000 active members in Australia. Considering that the Australian JW figure is 67,000, could reflect JW membership is considerably higher at an international level.
1:03 - 1:07 If it wasn't for Africa the LDS would of been in decline 4-5 years ago. In recent times the LDS has only just managed to grow by 1%. I think the JWs have grown by just over 1%. Lets just say their growth is comparable.
1:30 - 1:32 Units opening and closing around the world. Europe in decline. Growth in Africa. Mixed bag in north America perhaps indicating inaccurate counting by the church. South America not looking good. Asia in decline.
00:42 - 00:47 Phantom LDS members in Polynesia. Tonga could end up having more LDS than what live on the island due to inaccurate counting methods.
00:36 - 00:39 unnecessary buildings been built that cant be supported by the local members.
1:45 - 1:50 Its wealth. It has annual income of $US400 billion that it generates off its assets. WT is nothing compared to wealth of the LDS.
It is simply fallacious to say that datasets counting affiliation entirely differently can validly be directly compared. (Obviously, anyone can superficially compare any two things but it will give misleading results if the different metrics are not taken into account.) Not interested in watching the video. It is true that the number of congregations can give a helpful indication of growth/decline though.
A poster named DLWOIM prepared these figures on ex JW Reddit and provide staggering information.
So, in the annual report, it says that there are 33 “other lands” that don’t get listed, countries like China and Russia where the JWs work is restricted or under ban. They don’t print the exact number of JWs in each of these countries separately, presumably for the safety of those individual JWs.
But the report does say that there are a total of about 209,000 publishers in those countries as a whole. I wanted to get an idea of what the ratio of JW publishers to population there is, so I set out to tally the population of all these countries. First, I had to cross reference the listed countries against a map of the world and see which countries were missing. I think I ended up figuring out 30 or 31 of the 33 countries. Then I googled the population of each one. I’ll copy and paste my results here:
China 1.412 billion Russia 143.4 million Egypt 109.3 million Saudi Arabia 36 million Iran 88 million Iraq 43 million Libya 6 million Syria 21 million Algeria 44 million Tajikistan 10 million Turkmenistan 6 million North Korea 26 million Eritrea 3.6 million Djibouti 1 million Yemen 33 million Oman 4.5 million UAE 9 million Qatar 2.7 million Bahrain 1.4 million Bhutan .75 million Kuwait 4.25 million Morocco 37 million Tunisia 12.25 million Lebanon 5.5 million Jordan 11 million Mauritania 4.6 million Somalia 17 million Afghanistan 40 million Vietnam 97.5 million Laos 7.4 million
I came up with a total of 2,237,250,000. I then divided that by the 209,000 publishers and got 1 JW for every 10,704 people. That’s right. In a country where the preaching work is restricted or under ban, you’d have to meet almost 11,000 people to possibly come across one JW. And, if you happen to meet that one JW and decide that his or her religion is not for you, you are deserving of everlasting destruction.
That’s the exceeding love of Jehovah for you. And that’s the overwhelming success of the worldwide preaching work of his one true people, filling all the inhabited earth with the good news of his Kingdom.
Edited to add: There are 19 listed countries with ratios that are near as bad or much worse than they 1 in 10,700 ratio. In Pakistan the ratio is one JW for every 209,000 people. In Palestine it’s 1 in every 92,000 people. The whopper is Bangladesh with one JW for every 510,000 people.
In a country where the preaching work is restricted or under ban, you’d have to meet almost 11,000 people to possibly come across one JW.
The population of China skews this figure significantly so it’s not a particularly useful average. But it is a valid point in principle.
Do they still list the number of Congregations by Country ?
Phizzy:
Do they still list the number of Congregations by Country ?
Yes. Many have reduced significantly since last year.
| Country | New Congregations |
| United States | -123 |
| Côte d’Ivoire | -79 |
| South Africa | -72 |
| France | -69 |
| Japan | -66 |
| Ukraine | -60 |
| Zimbabwe | -58 |
| Mexico | -57 |
| Spain | -56 |
| Germany | -53 |
| Congo, Dem. Republic of | -47 |
| Peru | -38 |
| Colombia | -35 |
| Indonesia | -34 |
| Cameroon | -31 |
| Kenya | -28 |
| Madagascar | -26 |
| Kazakhstan | -25 |
| 33 Other Lands | -24 |
| Tanzania | -24 |
| Venezuela | -20 |
| Fiji | -20 |
| Paraguay | -18 |
| Canada | -16 |
| Argentina | -15 |
| Italy | -13 |
| Lesotho | -11 |
| Myanmar | -10 |
| Australia | -9 |
| Korea, Republic of | -9 |
| El Salvador | -8 |
| Dominican Republic | -7 |
| Panama | -7 |
| Ethiopia | -6 |
| Honduras | -5 |
| Guatemala | -5 |
| Switzerland | -5 |
| Vanuatu | -4 |
| Guyana | -4 |
| Albania | -4 |
| Eswatini | -4 |
| Senegal | -4 |
| Norway | -3 |
| Finland | -3 |
| Lithuania | -3 |
| Austria | -3 |
| Sri Lanka | -3 |
| Papua New Guinea | -2 |
| Cuba | -2 |
| Mayotte | -2 |
| Puerto Rico | -2 |
| Greece | -2 |
| Brazil | -2 |
| Malaysia | -2 |
| Taiwan | -2 |
| Belgium | -2 |
| Botswana | -2 |
| Trinidad & Tobago | -2 |
| Kiribati | -1 |
| Sudan | -1 |
| Cambodia | -1 |
| French Guiana | -1 |
| Serbia | -1 |
| Namibia | -1 |
| Solomon Islands | -1 |
| Moldova | -1 |
| Latvia | -1 |
| Slovenia | -1 |
| Ecuador | -1 |
| Luxembourg | -1 |
| Armenia | -1 |
| Costa Rica | -1 |
| Réunion | -1 |
| Hungary | -1 |
| Burkina Faso | -1 |
| New Zealand | -1 |
| Mali | -1 |
| Cyprus | -1 |
| Kosrae | 0 |
| Tuvalu | 0 |
| Chuuk | 0 |
| American Samoa | 0 |
| St. Barthélemy | 0 |
| Palau | 0 |
| Greenland | 0 |
| Turks and Caicos | 0 |
| Virgin Islands, British | 0 |
| Haiti | 0 |
| Pohnpei | 0 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0 |
| Bermuda | 0 |
| Guam | 0 |
| Mongolia | 0 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 0 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 0 |
| Samoa | 0 |
| Montserrat | 0 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 0 |
| Virgin Islands, U.S. | 0 |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | 0 |
| Macao | 0 |
| St. Vincent & the Grenadines | 0 |
| Uruguay | 0 |
| Kosovo | 0 |
| Hong Kong | 0 |
| Croatia | 0 |
| Dominica | 0 |
| Barbados | 0 |
| Curaçao | 0 |
| Belize | 0 |
| Belarus | 0 |
| Andorra | 0 |
| Jamaica | 0 |
| Azores | 0 |
| St. Kitts | 0 |
| North Macedonia | 0 |
| Cayman Islands | 0 |
| Aruba | 0 |
| St. Martin | 0 |
| Bolivia | 0 |
| Seychelles | 0 |
| San Marino | 0 |
| Bahamas | 0 |
| Saipan | 0 |
| Cape Verde | 0 |
| Denmark | 0 |
| Tahiti | 0 |
| Martinique | 0 |
| Grenada | 0 |
| Gabon | 0 |
| Yap | 0 |
| Tinian | 0 |
| St. Eustatius | 0 |
| Nevis | 0 |
| Niue | 0 |
| Wallis & Futuna Islands | 0 |
| Slovakia | 0 |
| Chile | 0 |
| Estonia | 0 |
| Cook Islands | 0 |
| Guadeloupe | 0 |
| Czech Republic | 0 |
| St. Lucia | 0 |
| St. Maarten | 0 |
| Poland | 0 |
| Madeira | 0 |
| Guinea | 0 |
| Nepal | 0 |
| Israel | 0 |
| Antigua | 0 |
| Netherlands | 0 |
| Rodrigues | 0 |
| Montenegro | 0 |
| Timor-Leste | 0 |
| Marshall Islands | 0 |
| Bangladesh | 0 |
| Congo, Republic of | 0 |
| Faroe Islands | 0 |
| Iceland | 0 |
| Suriname | 0 |
| Gambia | 0 |
| Pakistan | 0 |
| Palestinian Territories | 0 |
| Bonaire | 0 |
| Mauritius | 0 |
| Malta | 0 |
| Central African Republic | 0 |
| Liechtenstein | 0 |
| St. Helena | 0 |
| Anguilla | 0 |
| South Sudan | 0 |
| Nauru | 0 |
| St. Pierre and Miquelon | 0 |
| Niger | 0 |
| Gibraltar | 0 |
| Falkland Islands | 0 |
| Sierra Leone | 1 |
| Chad | 1 |
| Romania | 1 |
| Sweden | 1 |
| Liberia | 1 |
| Ireland | 1 |
| Angola | 1 |
| Tonga | 1 |
| Nicaragua | 2 |
| New Caledonia | 2 |
| Thailand | 2 |
| Rota | 2 |
| Rwanda | 2 |
| Portugal | 2 |
| Bulgaria | 2 |
| Turkey | 2 |
| Britain | 3 |
| Azerbaijan | 3 |
| Saba | 3 |
| Uganda | 4 |
| Benin | 4 |
| Georgia | 5 |
| Philippines | 7 |
| Togo | 7 |
| Burundi | 9 |
| Zambia | 10 |
| Malawi | 15 |
| India | 41 |
| Ghana | 57 |
| Mozambique | 238 |
I wonder what’s going on in Mozambique with the large jump in congregations.
Reservations, I wonder why you think JWs will decline in 10 to 15 years when the “old guard” die off. Isn’t there always an “old guard” dying off? Why hasn’t there been a mass exodus today, or ten years ago, what the previous old guard died off?
The general idea that religion declines by generational cohorts is indeed supported by sociologists such as David Voas. (He’s got articles and a YouTube video on this topic)
If there was any generation that could represent the “old guard”, after which there would be decline, I would have guessed it would be the group that joined in the run up to 1975. But a large number of those will already have died. At least locally, a number of those that joined in the 1975 excitement have already died, and yet there hasn’t been a mass exodus so far. Many of their children, grandchildren, and even great grandchildren are still JWs.
Suggestions why JWs keep growing while other churches decline have included: their preaching activity and the threat of disfellowshipping.
I wonder if a bigger factor might not be JW rejection of higher education. There is good evidence to show that less educated people are more religious, as well as people who are economically precarious, which can accompany lack of eduction. Rejection of higher education is also a factor that makes JWs distinct from most other groups including Mormons, Adventists, mainstream churches and evangelicals.
In additional to lack of education being correlated to religiosity in general, there might be significant psychological factors at work too. Because it is a big decision for an adolescent JW to decide to comply with Watchtower pressure to abandon education at a crucial juncture. Having made that decision as a teenager probably weighs heavily on an individual for the rest of their life. A person might feel compelled to stick with the religion, while in other circumstances the might not have, in the coming decades in order to maintain psychological consistency with the decision not to pursue higher education as a teenager. Getting a job and married early probably cements other pressures to remain in the the religion too. So altogether I would argue that JW rejection of higher education might be one of the most significant factors producing comparatively higher growth for JWs than other religious groups. If Watchtower reversed its stance on higher education, or if young JWs started ignoring it en masse, that might be portentous of future decline.
I refer to “the old guard” dying off in the next 10/15 years.
I, along with everyone else, can only report what we see first hand. And in my circuit(s) where I live, at least 70-75% are over 65.
The mass die off coupled with the fact that members are not being recruited from the “field” like they used to is a sure sign it will be in decline.
In 1986 the 5 year attrition rate was 0.19
In 2022 the 5 year attrition rate is 0.86
This is evidence that they are not recruiting like they used to, and those “old guard” who were around in 1981 are hitting their 70s now.
So I’m sticking with my 10/15 year prediction. Earliest I would say is start of the 2030s.
Evidence shows that many left after 1975, but they recovered in the 80s and 90s with strong baptism numbers. Early figures show they are loosing the same amount, but are not being replaced with new baptisms.
