Of course the number who have the virus is much higher than the number of positive tests. The NHS is no longer testing people who report symptoms unless they are vulnerable. What is known for certain is the number of deaths. It follows that the mortality rate is lower than expected.
“I’m young and healthy so coronavirus won’t affect me” (why we need to stop this disease at ALL costs!)
by slimboyfat 43 Replies latest social current
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Sad-u-see
Can someone please dig up the h1n1 threads from a decade ago? It was supposed to be a catastrophe on par with the Spanish influenza of 1918, until it wasn't. We have no idea how bad this is gonna be. It could fizzle out, or it could get worse. Nobody is saying don't take precautions, but there is no reason to be afraid. If you do happen to catch it, it's unlikely it will even be the sickest you've ever been, that's why many people are walking around infected and don't know it. It's not Ebola. Anyways, be safe, take precautions, but there's no need to be afraid.
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Simon
It's not Ebola
The guy who discovered Ebola says this is many times worse, because it's a respiratory virus.
If it were fluid based, like Ebola or AIDS, it doesn't spread as easily or as fast.
If it were more deadly, it wouldn't spread as far or as fast (in the same way that cholera that kills you in 1 day is "less deadly" from an infectious disease point of view than one that kills in 7 days)
SARS was more deadly but less impactful because it was easier to contain.
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Simon
Without the testing to confirm the cases, they don't exist, right? And any deaths will not thereby be attributed to CV-19. Thus the numbers stay artificially low.
Yes, "test no one and the problem goes away". That seems to be the magical-unicorn solution that some imagine.
Also on their list is "something isn't deadly if you only measure deaths from the first 10 minutes" and then compare it to something where we measure the deaths in millions 100 years later.
As though no one died in 9/11 except the people stabbed at the very beginning of the hijackings. As long as you don't count, it don't happen. Simple!
There are some utterly stupid people and they also seem to coincide with being heartless to the plight of others as well.
I bet all those who have already lost loved ones to this wish they could go back and have stricter quarantines in place earlier.
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Finkelstein
Yes of course we need to stop this virus from spreading and find a possible cure but we also need to be rational, balanced and sensible about the matter, not over strung with fear and anxiety like we are JWS living in the year 1975.
Over stressing people actually weakens your immune system, which might make the contact and receiving of the virus worse for people.
Scientists are actually coming closer to a vaccination here in Canada and in China as well.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/canadian-scientists-make-breakthrough-in-coronavirus-vaccine-effort/
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2+2=5
Three blokes in my hometown of Brisbane in Australia have found a way to control the virus, it looks extremely promising at the very least at this stage.
Their research is based around spike proteins the virus uses to invade cells.
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silentbuddha
So since there are many thousands more undetected cases that have come and gone or are still out there, what does that tell us about the death rate.
Let's say Canada has had 5000 cases. What is the death rate now.
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Finkelstein
Let's say Canada has had 5000 cases. What is the death rate now.
As of today there has only been 244 cases in Canada confirmed with only one death.
It would be conceivable to assume the death rate will rise as the confirmed cases rise but it does show this virus is not an absolute death sentence to those who catch it and catching it to date is a social improbability.
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Sad-u-see
Professor Piot was not saying that COVID-19 was worse than Ebola, just that it is easier to transmit. If he had to choose which virus to acquire I'm sure he would prefer COVID with an average death rate of 1% vs 50% for Ebola. There's a chance this coronavirus could become endemic and haunt us forever. There's reason to fear Ebola, when you death is a coin flip, but fear of COVID is unwarranted though strong precautions to protect public health are necessary. I am a nurse in the US, so I've taken courses in microbiology and public health. Do not be shocked if you do get it, but it is hardly a death sentence.
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slimboyfat
See this chart.
The trajectory of the UK means we are headed for an even worse outcome than Italy. We could have been like Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong or Japan, turning the curve downward. We need to change course now! Social distancing, school closures, work from home, rigorous testing and isolation of infected, as Asian countries have proved is highly successful.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1238822732302815232/photo/1