Voting Bush out (page 2)

jelly

The economy will be the biggest factor in the next election. As far as how much influence the president has on the economy, he has some. It’s true the economy moves with a natural business cycle that is driven by numerous variables like the average age of consumers non-perishable goods, etc, etc, forever. But, the actions the president takes can minimize the lows and maximize the highs. It will be interesting to see if Bush’s tax cut does any good. Most Americans really do not like unemployment much higher than 6 percent and if unemployment rises to 8-10% Bush will be in trouble. For the Dems to actually capitalize on the economy, if it does not get better, they must have a plan. So far, the Democrats have not come up with a decent economic counter proposal of their own.

Terry

jelly

Larc,
First most of the job creation under Clinton had more to do with higher worker productivity driven by IT than anything he did, so in a sense you are correct. However, the Clinton administration did do some other things that helped the economic boom even more. Under Clinton welfare was reformed, while the federal government basically just put a 5 year cap on benefits many states created programs that help people get back to work, training, free child care etc etc. This reduced welfare expenditures allowed other things to be purchased like the 100k police officers. Also by balancing the budget, more or less, Clinton helped reduce interest rates. Low interest rates make it cheaper for companies to buy new equipment to further increase their productivity and offer their products at lower prices leading to better standard of living. The point of this is simply that the president does have some influence of the economy, maybe something like 30% influence, if you want to throw out a number. The economy is not just random chance the administration is accountable for the countries economic state, just think of the difference between Hoover and FDR.

Terry

Simon

I think what will 'cause people to vote him out are:

Realisation that the war in iraq was not for the stated purposes and he lied / deceived
Ongoing loss of US lives in Iraq and Afghanistan (now an almost daily occurence) with no sense that it delivers improved security
Massive budget deficit and tax cuts for the wealthy
Comparable studies of bush / chimp genetics - "primate for president" just isn't cartchy

That last one was a joke.

I think the economy will be the biggest killer for him.

Simon

I think the popularity boost he got because of Sept 11 (why?) is gradually eroding:

Bush's popularity rating:

I read somwhere that the budget deficit was 6 trillion dollars ... that's something like 300 billion dollars in interest alone! ... and I thought my credit card balance was bad

Of course, what happens to Bush is really up to the American voters - I am more concerned with what happens to Blair at the next election but it doesn't appear as though there is an credible, electable opposition right now.

In both countries there is a very low voter turnout which is a bad thing IMHO.

wednesday

I don't think it is Bush fault for the unemployment, but that will be THE issue in 2004. There are so many fires burning, terrorism, heath care, unemployment, education, poverty, medicare, crime, on and on. What a dreadful job to be held responsible for all that, and trying to keep America safe too.

I have seen a glimpse of what the democrats have to offer-and it is not much. They don't have a plan-they just want to monday morning quarterback. I have been a democrat (even as a jw i always leaned that way) until this last election. I realized i was republican. so i leave the jws and become a republican all in same year.

We may have another "Jmmy Carter" democrat running. Bush is a shoe in then.

Pork Chop

Simon you are completely out of touch with the American people. His poll numbers are extremely good for the circumstances and the Democrats don't have a credible opponent.

jelly

Lieberman (sp?) is the closest the democrats have towards a legitimate candidate. However, I think Lieberman’s centrist ideas and support for the Iraq war will prevent him from gaining the nomination. I remember a few months ago he was booed by Democrats out her in California. If no WMD’s are found by the election, it will still be a non-issue. With all the mass graves and such being found in Iraq most Americans see Hussein himself as a weapon of mass destruction. Most, Americans are glad he is gone. Even if the economy tanks and unemployment is high if the Democrats do not begin to come up with some ideas it will not matter, for them the next election will be just like the last.

Terry

teejay

>>>> What is the best campaign stratagy to win against him?

I will be the first to make a prediction. The only way to defeat Bush is for the Democratic nominee to be either Hillary or Howard Dean. But then, if things keep going they way they are in Iraq, Joe Schmo would be able to beat Bush... if they don't lynch him first.

SixofNine

What is the best campaign stratagy to win against him?

A serious run by Wesley Clark. Or am totally politically naive?

Pork Chop

Wesley Clark? NO chance. Howard Dean? You must be joking, Bush will take 49 states. Hillary? Long, long shot, I don't think the woman can be elected president under and circumstances, too many negatives. They don't even like her in New York now, poll numbers dropping steadily.

Democrats are living in fantasy land if they think any one of these three can do the job.

Voting Bush out

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