Kingdom Hall consolidation video - managing decline and collapse

by slimboyfat 45 Replies latest members campaign

  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat

    Have there been any threads on this video? Has the video been leaked? If so I missed it. So here is my take:

    There was a 12 minute video about KH consolidation presented at the midweek meeting last week. The narrator for the video was brother Breaux, the same brother made famous by his defence of the two witness rule, and the “pillow-gate” leak. It seems he’s the new messenger of bad news.

    This video was produced in the US and has indications of being particularly focused on that territory, but is being presented worldwide. The theme of the video is making efficient use of KH facilities; in other words consolidation and mergers.

    What is most striking about the video is the assumption and orientation toward decline. Gary Breaux says it is important that publishers cooperate with mergers of congregations. He stated that: “fully cooperating with KH mergers is like making a financial contribution to the Kingdom work”. Which gives a clear indication of the agenda and focus.

    Breaux presented visuals of various scenarios in which mergers of congregations or KHs would make sense logistically, such as where an overutilized KH is near an under-utilized KH. He also mentioned in passing the possibility that full KHs would necessitate building new ones, but not very convincingly, and this was clearly not the focus.

    The video made it clear that decisions about mergers would be made by regional committees and they would take various factors (including travel time for brothers) into consideration. There is no provision for local JWs to have any say in the process. Their role is to accept and support the decisions made.

    Gary Breaux mentioned that as a result of mergers he and his wife had been reassigned to a new congregation after decades at their old KH. The message being: if it’s good enough for me, it’s good enough for you. Don’t complain.

    The video began by asking the audience what good memories they have of their KH? It prompted the suggestion of a young brother’s first talk. It struck me that KHs are not conducive to good memories and they struggle for examples, because JWs are highly restricted in what they can do at KHs. Meetings are predictable and repetative: the poorest possible conditions for creating enduring, good memories.

    This video highlighted many of the failures of WT which are resulting in the organisational decline they are here attempting to deal with.

    For one thing they treat congregations and individual JWs as bean counters to be reassigned and distributed in the most “efficient” way, without publishers having any say or input in the process other than obedience. This is not only crass, it is strategically stupid. They don’t understand that congregations, if they are anything at all, are dynamic systems, with unique histories and characters. To WT the relevant factors are space, expenses, distances and capacity. To human beings the relevant factors are relationships, convenience, connections, history, and shared meaning.

    I have observed that Christadelphians have witnessed decline in recent decades, but that individual congregations have battled on and survived against the odds. This is precisely because they value the uniqueness and autonomy of each congregation. Had their ethos been more like JWs and centralised, it seems likely that Christadelphian decline would have occurred much more rapidly than it has done. I know some Christadelphians who travel considerable distances to attend their “home” congregations, or ecclesias as they are properly called. Because community and history are important.

    The WT leadership seem to think that JWs should value obedience to theocratic direction over their personal connections with congregations. Well they are welcome to that opinion, but they are setting themselves up for disappointment. Just because they think JWs should respect and obey the “theocratic arrangement” to disband and merge congregations, doesn’t mean that’s how it will play out in reality.

    What will really happen, if they truly implement this barmy scheme as proposed:

    1. Many JWs will disobey directions and instead attend congregations they feel most at home, fostering a climate of disobedience that may spill over into other areas.

    2. For some JWs the distances will be too great and they will slow down or stop attending altogether.

    3. Local communities will notice the decline and retreat of KHs, as they do with other churches, and JWs will be recognised as a church in decline.

    4. JWs will feel dispirited and dejected at the programme of mergers which is clearly designed to cope with decline.

    5. The imagined financial savings from this process will not meet WT expectations because the result will be fewer JWs and those who remain will be less zealous and less inclined to donate money. In fact the whole “efficiency” agenda may exacerbate rather than alleviate their monetary problems. Cutbacks are rarely a good strategy for growth, but especially not when the “business” involves consumers who have been primed to view continued growth as an essential feature.

    6. This plan smacks of desperation. WT desperately needs the money, it’s as simple as that. Even though it’s a terrible strategy in the medium to long term, they may have no other option but to pursue KH consolidation in the short term. I suspect that KH sales in this process may not be enough. They may need to begin selling KHs even where there is no possible rational local basis for doing so, just to meet organisational costs. They may try to offer yet more rationalisations rather than candour for these developments. This will alienate and depress JWs yet further. This will result in fewer JWs and smaller donations, in a downward spiral.

  • truth_b_known
    truth_b_known

    1. Many JWs will disobey directions and instead attend congregations they feel most at home, fostering a climate disobedience that may spill over into other areas.

    2. For some JWs the distances will be too great and they will slow down or stop attending altogether.

    I wholeheartedly agree with your prediction. I was born in and remained in until my early thirties. I lived in 3 different states during that time. I cannot agree more with the fact that if a Witness is not comfortable with attending meetings with a particular group of Witnesses or location they will stop attending or go against what they have been asked.

    As a child I remember the first Kingdom Hall I attended. It was literally within walking distance of my house. Then my congregation split due to it's size. The originally congregation moved to a Kingdom Hall to a territory a good 20 to 30 miles away. I remember having to move as my father was the Presiding Overseer (COBE) of the original congregation. I recall several families requesting to stay with the original congregation, which was granted. However, under the new JW 2.0 you would be viewed as disobedient.

    This will definitely be a huge blow to the organization.

  • carla
    carla

    I hope you are right! and I hope my jw's kh gets sold too! Doubtful but I can hope can't I?

  • dropoffyourkeylee
    dropoffyourkeylee

    The Witnesses sure have a short memory. Just a few years ago, the local congregation would get a loan (usually from the Society) and build their own hall. It was a source of pride and cohesion to all pull together to build it, then pay for it. I personally kept a watch on the donations and always donated to help pay off the mortgage. Then they pulled the rug out of the whole deal, and the WT can sell our property at will. It's ridiculous

  • Sour Grapes
    Sour Grapes

    Slimboyfat...Thanks for the post. I appreciated all of your points. I hope the Borg will crash and burn.

  • _Morpheus
    _Morpheus

    Ahhh a other gloom and doom thread! Its been too long, oh slim one :) interestingly, i agree with a good bit of your thoughts, just not the the sum total end result. Allow me to respond to your six bullets as found at the end of your op:

    1. Many JWs will disobey directions and instead attend congregations they feel most at home, fostering a climate of disobedience that may spill over into other areas.

    Yes in the first but no in the second. Jw’s will absolutely go where they want once their congregation gets disbanded but it wont lead to other areas. Thats a huge and unfounded leap. In fact they will be happy because they choose where are now going. I have seen it play out in the DC area.

    2. For some JWs the distances will be too great and they will slow down or stop attending altogether.

    Thats hard for me to evaluate, living in a metropolitan area. Your commute to any one of 6 kh’s is no more than 20 min or so. 30 min and the number is 20 kh’s and easily 60 congregations. That wont be a factor locally but in areas where there was already a long commute now made longer... i could see it happening. That wont be a huge number of people affect, however. A few thousand at most?

    3. Local communities will notice the decline and retreat of KHs, as they do with other churches, and JWs will be recognised as a church in decline.

    Please. Thats a HUGE assumption since 99.9999999999999999% of the population dont spend one second thinking about jw’s lets alone “recognize them as a church in decline”. Church's sell buildings and build new ones all the time, nobody reflects on it as a sign of organizational health. Thats you projecting your own special interest on others

    4. JWs will feel dispirited and dejected at the programme of mergers which is clearly designed to cope with decline.

    I do know some locally who were dejected, that cannot be overstated. But they also got over it. They went tk the new congregations and are falling into the flow. Its upsetting in the short term but they seem to be getting over it

    5. The imagined financial savings from this process will not meet WT expectations because the result will be fewer JWs and those who remain will be less zealous and less inclined to donate money. In fact the whole “efficiency” agenda may exacerbate rather than alleviate their monetary problems. Cutbacks are rarely a good strategy for growth, but especially not when the “business” involves consumers who have been primed to view continued growth as an essential feature.

    So again, part of this yes part of it no. They may well be less inclinded to donate as they dont feel personally connected. The offset is that with the local building gone ANY money they donate to the new building (and gets forwarded to the branch) is pure profit. Its still a win even if they donate less in the short term. And i agree that the jw mindset is geared towards and primed for constant growth but i suspect the spin will be ‘growth in foreign lands’ and people will assume that it may not be here buts “somewhere”

    6. This plan smacks of desperation. WT desperately needs the money, it’s as simple as that. Even though it’s a terrible strategy in the medium to long term, they may have no other option but to pursue KH consolidation in the short term. I suspect that KH sales in this process may not be enough. They may need to begin selling KHs even where there is no possible rational local basis for doing so, just to meet organisational costs. They may try to offer yet more rationalisations rather than candour for these developments. This will alienate and depress JWs yet further. This will result in fewer JWs and smaller donations, in a downward spiral.

    That last bullet point is all wishfull thinking and speculation. Thats the slim gloom and doom chorus that we have come to know and love. No facts, just wild eyed fervor that org simply cant do this and survive, right guys???? Right?!?!?!?!

    They can and they will. The last 120 years says they will find customers for the crazy they have to sell.

  • stuckinarut2
    stuckinarut2

    Great post Slimboy!

    Excellent summary of the talk / video, and excellent analysis of the results!

    Thankyou

  • Doubting Bro
    Doubting Bro

    Couple of quick thoughts. There is no question that they are looking to gain efficiencies because it's clear they have overbuilt in some areas and they certainly are not growing. Not sure if they are declining in raw numbers, some congregations are and some are not. The congregation that I attend has had the same number of publishers for the last 20 years. It ebbs and flows but right around 110. Others I know of in the area have had declines and were merged. For certain, the average age of the congregations around here has shot up. That does not bode well for future growth.

    I recall when I was the secretary, we would have to reassign book study groups from time to time. You think that its just one meeting and only an hour a week + service 3 weekends (we always met at the KH on a designated Sat morning as a whole congregation) so it wouldn't be a big deal. Man, the grief we would get on moving people even if it made perfect sense and was a closer drive for them! Lots of folks just decided to go where they wanted anyway! So, the trend to not go where assigned has always been there at least in my part of the US. It's pretty common for members to go where ever they feel is best for them. Even elders/ms and pioneers. The CO may grouse but I've not seen anyone take action.

    On your list of outcomes:

    1 - see above

    2- I think older ones will definitely slow down, some faders will use it as the perfect time to accelerate. Generally, people will hold to the same pattern as they had.

    3 - Local communities could not care less about JWs! They are insignificant.

    4 - I agree some are starting to talk about it in localized areas. It is not encouraging from the folks I've talked to.

    5 - I agree, cutbacks are never a strategy for growth. They are monetizing the real estate assets they have now and trying to improve efficiencies. I don't think the reduction of buildings will be the main driver in people not donating. Their anti-education, anti-youth policies are doing more to hurt their donations than anything else. Young folks leave in droves. Do that over a few generations and you have an old, uneducated (for the most part) base of believers that simply can't donate more.

    6 - That's a huge stretch. If they were desperate for money, they would have sold off a lot more buildings than they are doing. They also would not have built a huge facility in Warwick. Their cash flow is getting tight but they have plenty of assets to sell before desperation sets in.

  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat
    The last 120 years says they will find customers for the crazy they have to sell.

    Morph this has been the WT’s financial history:

    1879 - 1990: make money selling magazines, books and other media

    1990 - 2014: use money reserves from period of selling magazines and books/begin cutting costs

    2014 - present: sell property/implement much deeper cutbacks

    The question is what do they do when their accumulated assets run out? They are no longer selling books and magazines, and it’s unclear how or if they can secure their financial future.

    Doubting Bro

    If they were desperate for money, they would have sold off a lot more buildings than they are doing. They also would not have built a huge facility in Warwick.

    They planned Warwick before their financial crisis hit. Plus they hoped that downsizing out of New York City would be a net gain. They have sold historic branches in countries such as Switzerland and Austria. They have sold assembly halls that were recently acquired. They are apparently unable to afford the cost of printing new Bibles in French, German or Spanish. Things are pretty desperate already. They are not selling off viable KHs yet, but it’s the logical next step. They could rationalise this development in various ways. They may become a “house church”, however the abandonment of the groups studies is against this. Or they could create mega-congregations centred around assembly halls. Or they could actually disband the current organisation in some fashion because of lack of funds, as the Worldwide Chuch of God did.

  • _Morpheus
    _Morpheus

    False. This is their finical history:

    1879- present- selling the idea that they are gods sole channel of communication and that only by association with them will you live forever. As i have expressed many times, the books and mags are just the means they used to separate the flock from fheir cash. They are using new ways. Nothing has changed.

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