Predictions for the next decade?

by jehovaxx 48 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  HereIam60

  ...Continued "stepping away" from problematic teachings, by not mentioning them and pretending they never existed (overlapping generation)

  ...I still wonder whether there's some kind of major doctrinal overhaul planned... The Jesus drama and convention talks are giving more focus on Christ. The weekly Bible Reading Schedule for the Christian Life and Ministry slowed down considerably in recent years. Even if it resumes several chapters per week it will still be a long, long time before the Gospels, Christian letters, and Revelation are reached again (Currently still in Proverbs)

  ....Whether the Ramapo project ever proceeds remains to be seen. It has never made any sense to me as they already produce an ongoing flood of video. All we've heard as far as I know for the past two years is that some paving was done and trees cut down...
• 

  dropoffyourkeylee

  Concerning the number of congregations, one thing to consider is the 'foreign language' field, at least in the US. From about 2010 until the Covid years, there was a concerted effort to have foreign language groups associated with congregations, then when there were enough attendees and elders, create a foreign language congregation with its own separate meetings in the same KH. After Covid, many of these 'groups' and 'congregations' were ceased and everyone went back to the English hosting congregation. This is reflected in the number of reported congregations.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Yes, that’s correct. Some of the reduction in number of congregations is a reduction in foreign language congregations that were deemed not viable. Some of it was also a consolidation in KHs in response to the financial troubles Watchtower experienced around 2015.

  All numbers are subject to redefinition over time. This is a feature of statistics in general not just Watchtower statistics. A publisher today isn’t the same as 20 years ago and the same goes for other measures. Even an attender at the memorial isn’t the same today because Zoom attenders are now counted.

  Nevertheless it remains the case that JW numbers, taken as a whole, compare very favourably with most other churches in western countries. There are 9 million JWs today compared with 6 million 25 years ago. There are 240,000 members of the Church of Scotland compared with 600,000 25 years ago. Whatever way you look at it that indicates significant growth of JWs and significant decline of the Church of Scotland. In the west most churches are declining like the Church of Scotland and few match the growth of JWs.

  Scenic View you ask what I think of the generation teaching? I think it’s nonsense, obviously. That doesn’t change the fact that JWs are still growing contrary to your comments. Just because you or I might wish JWs to decline doesn’t make it so. There’s no point pretending that JWs are “losing badly” when the facts are the opposite. What’s the point of denying reality? Or impugning the motives of others who don’t go along with denying reality?
• 

  ScenicViewer

  Slimboyfat said,

  "Scenic View you ask what I think of the generation teaching? I think it’s nonsense, obviously. That doesn’t change the fact that JWs are still growing contrary to your comments."

  If you don't believe the 'generation' teaching, which Watchtower teaches as a fact, then why would you believe anything else that Organization teaches? I agree, it is nonsense, just as their growth numbers are.

  Watchtower has to give the appearance of growth which is reflected in their outrageous growth numbers. After all they are 'God's Organization,' right, therefore they must pretend that Jehovah is backing them. But I don't remember reading anywhere in the Bible that God works through, or is associated with, an Organization of any kind. Why would he need to be? He wouldn't, but JWs want you to think he needs them. If JWs really were His Organization there would be growth because God would be providing it. No such thing is happening.

  Another indication of their decline is lowering the age to be an elder to the low 20s. Previously you had to be 30 to be an elder, although there were a few rare exceptions in certain places.

  Watchtower has said repeatedly over the years that the age of manhood in the Bible is 30 years old. Now you have 21, 22, 23 year old kids being asked to serve as what, "older men," or elders, in the congregation. How silly is that? And why? Could it be because the decline that Watchtower is now experiencing has cut into their elder numbers too? Likely so. Why else would they drop the age to such a low number, which is a direct contradiction to what they preciously taught as the age of 'manhood?'

  "JW numbers, taken as a whole, compare very favourably with most other churches in western countries."

  Not all religions are declining, as with the Church of Scotland. Is that in your country? For example I have read that the Seventh Day Adventists are growing on a world wide basis. Their number of new followers is very impressive, although they are losing a significant number of followers too. But overall they have growth.

  This website, https://adventistreview.org/news/adventist-church-welcomes-1-4-million-new-members-in-2023/ shows the growth numbers. ( I have never had anything to do with that church myself.) Below is a quote from that site.

  "Trim showed a slide displaying membership data for the 59 years since 1965. In almost six decades the church has accepted 45,117,980 people into membership. In the same period, 19,392,486 members have chosen to leave, he reported. “More than four of every ten church members are slipping away,” Trim said, while urging both General Conference Executive Committee members and church members to “be their brother’s keeper, and their sister’s too.” " (bold added)

  So, since 1965 they have added over 45 million people and lost 19 million people, which leaves a net growth of about 26 million people. I had no idea that church was so popular, even though in the small town in which I live (50,000 population) there are several 7th Day Adventist church buildings, compared with just 1 Kingdom Hall, which should have clued me in.

  But what about in more recent times, are they currently growing? Another quote from the same site says...

  "Trim pointed out that “2023 saw the highest number of net accessions of any year in church history, exceeding the 1.383 million added in 2018.” The number of accessions is now back on the same level as it was before the challenging years of 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic."

  I think most churches are in decline, just like Jehovah's Witnesses, but there are some, like the Adventists, that are growing. Of course we only have their numbers to go by, just like with JWs.

  Slimboyfat also said...

  "Just because you or I might wish JWs to decline doesn’t make it so."

  No it doesn't, but the number of congregations being dissolved and the resulting mergers, low attendance at meetings as seen in many videos, the change in what it takes to be a publisher, the many failed 'end of world' predictions, and the ridiculously low age for elders now all add up to decline.

  "There’s no point pretending that JWs are “losing badly” when the facts are the opposite."

  The pretending is coming from you, pretending that there is growth in the JW religion. What you call facts are simply the reported numbers of a religious Organization that has proven itself to be extremely dishonest for about 145 years.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Why believe JW numbers? Because censuses confirm them and then some. Because academics have studied them and found them to be underestimates of JW numbers. Because I've seen attendances at various KHs and assemblies with my own eyes and they look similar to the 1990s.

  They are probably short of elders and making efforts to boost numbers.

  Adventists are indeed growing, they are one of the few churches that are growing. Most churches are declining severely. JWs are staying about the same in the UK or growing slightly because of immigrant largely from Africa. In other counties they are still growing. In a few countries they are declining such as Poland. Congregations may be closing in some places, a mixture of fewer numbers but also as a money saving exercise in some cases.

  Check out this comparison of JWs, Mormons and Adventists here:

  http://www.sdahistorians.org/uploads/1/2/3/6/12365223/lawson_2_reassessing_size.pdf
• 

  dropoffyourkeylee

  Lots of people self-identify as JWs but don’t report time or check the box. Why they do so is a curiosity, but typically the census numbers are greater than WT-reported figures
• 

  Elena

  It’s easier than ever to do a half fade where you end up JW light.

  some people haven’t been seen for months then they May appear on zoom or at the KH in person every now and then. Just to catch up with old friends.

  these are all counted as JWs but they don’t believe it anymore.

  my prediction is upto 50% of the 9 million reported JWs will be JW light soon. The other 50% are mixed between JW heavy which are the pioneer types and semi light who do act like they believe it all but secretly don’t.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Different religious groups have different ways of counting membership. JWs have one of the strictest measures of any religious group and the Mormons are at the opposite end of the spectrum claiming many more members than reality. Scholars interested in establishing some sort of fair comparison between groups have used censuses to evaluate membership totals. The result in the table below compares the number of members claimed by the group compared with the academic estimate of “adherence” on the basis of census results.

  The figure of 15 million for JWs makes sense because if asked to estimate the number who consider themselves to be JWs then a figure in between publisher number and the Memorial attendance sounds about right because many inactive JWs still consider themselves JWs but not everyone who attends the Memorial. The Mormon figure of 7 million also makes sense because it’s widely known the Mormon church grossly inflates their numbers by counting everybody they’ve ever baptised even though many of them never return to the church after rushed baptisms.

  
  
• 

  no-zombie

  As the numbers of disfellowshiped people are way smaller than those who become inactive and fade away, I wager that the faders are still believers (at varying levels of course), which would help explain the various surveys stating the larger JW population numbers. And within that group of course, would the JWLITEers.

  However this doesn't really help the Governing Body that much because they really need 'bums on seats'. Yes, as more and more Witness kids move out and the falling birth rate of Western Countries only getting lower, it going to get hard, much harder to finance the Organization. Not until the GB formally embraces JWLITE and rebuilds the social side of congregations, will people start seeing the value in staying or think about returning it.
  

  But will the Governing Body be brave enough to do it? I doubt it at the moment, not until the old guard are gone.